I stole this post from a thread on CZ about where we will end up in the draft depending on how this weekend unfolds:
In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.
If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.
Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run
If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.
There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.
Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.
If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10
There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.
Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2
My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.
Hope that clears it up for everyone!
As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.