levitate
I love you, you know.
How is this any more dangerous than the seasonal flu?
Numbers don’t even appear to be that high
Numbers don’t even appear to be that high
COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)
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GnauzBookOfRhymes
Superstar
Everything is a work
The public demands to be amused, frightened, titillated, concerned, paranoid, blah blah blah
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Ill-Yaz
FA Cup winning fan
The case mortality rate is MUCH worse but it’s hard to gauge just how much worse.. but it definitely appears to be around 10-20 times more deadly. To give perspective in the 2018-2019 flu season, you have about 43 million cases with around 61,000 deaths (In the US). That’s a lot of deaths but only a 0.14 case mortality rate. Roughly 1 in 700 people ended up passing away.
61200 ÷ 43000000 = 0.0014232558139535 = 0.14232558139535%
Coronavirus current global stats are 45,000 cases with 1,100 deaths. That’s a 2.44% death rate. Granted there must be cases that aren’t being diagnosed so the death rate would be lower.. but how much lower??
let’s say it’s half that at 1.22%.. it would still be 10 times as lethal as the flu. Let’s say 43 million ppl contract ncov19 within a similar time span (October 2020 through March 2021)
1.22% of 43000000 = 524600
That’s over a half a million people. Around 1 out of every 80 case would be fatal.
These are US projections I’m doing .. not world wide. That’s if 43 mil contracted it.. but what’s the chance of that???
2. Now The fukked up part... that 1.2-2.4% doesn’t sound completely terrible (still pretty bad for a case mortality rate tho) but this is combined with an INSANE virality rate... It’s possibly 3-4 times as contagious As the flu. The Seasonal flu has an R0 that hovers around 1.3. A brother posted a few posts back, this shyt may be well over R4.
Meaning for every person that has it, it’s expected to be spread to 4 others.. it’s spreading like crazy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship for an example ..1/3 of those tested have it and there’s a case where it’s suspected someone contracted it from someone that lived 10 floors above them in an apartment building because of a broken pipe in the bathroom. So a scenario where 50mil people contract it isn’t unrealistic.
our best hopes
1. It’s isolated and put to rest (not likely)
2. A highly effective vaccine (will take 18 months)
3. China mishandled the initial response so there are actually 10s of thousands who have it but are recovering, or had mild symptoms/were asymptotic but weren’t diagnosed AND the death numbers reported by the CCP are fairly accurate
4. Asian males have a higher expression of ACE2 enzymes in their lungs (ncov uses this as a host receptor) so the deaths in China are disproportionate to what they will be elsewhere
I think the last two could be correct.. so we should be ok... but if not, buckle up
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desjardins
Superstar
What needs to be considered for the mortality rate is the fact that a lot of infected people get minor symptoms. Those people never get counted and never go to the hospital. Tens of thousands of people just in Wuhan have probably had the virus already. The people who get the sickest are the typical flu victims (old and young kids), this is a respiratory condition that also can trigger heart attacks so the fact that 40% of adults in China smoke and have compromised respiratory systems need to also be considered imo.
Lastly another factor that contributes to mortality is if and when you can get treatment for severe cases. I think that's why the mortality rate is higher in areas with the most concentration of the virus, like Wuhan. Healthcare providers are at maximum capacity most likely increasing risk for ppl who don't get treated fast enough
Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Lastly another factor that contributes to mortality is if and when you can get treatment for severe cases. I think that's why the mortality rate is higher in areas with the most concentration of the virus, like Wuhan. Healthcare providers are at maximum capacity most likely increasing risk for ppl who don't get treated fast enough
Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Kingshango
Veteran
what are your symptoms ? I’m sure you good bro
Light cough
Sneezing
Runny nose
Regular cold shyt that the C-Virus just so happens to have before it goes Jamaican.
levitate
I love you, you know.
The case mortality rate is MUCH worse but it’s hard to gauge just how much worse.. but it definitely appears to be around 10-20 times more deadly. To give perspective in the 2018-2019 flu season, you have about 43 million cases with around 61,000 deaths (In the US). That’s a lot of deaths but only a 0.14 case mortality rate. Roughly 1 in 700 people ended up passing away.
61200 ÷ 43000000 = 0.0014232558139535 = 0.14232558139535%
Coronavirus current global stats are 45,000 cases with 1,100 deaths. That’s a 2.44% death rate. Granted there must be cases that aren’t being diagnosed so the death rate would be lower.. but how much lower??
let’s say it’s half that at 1.22%.. it would still be 10 times as lethal as the flu. Let’s say 43 million ppl contract ncov19 within a similar time span (October 2020 through March 2021)
1.22% of 43000000 = 524600
That’s over a half a million people. Around 1 out of every 80 case would be fatal.
These are US projections I’m doing .. not world wide. That’s if 43 mil contracted it.. but what’s the chance of that???
2. Now The fukked up part... that 1.2-2.4% doesn’t sound completely terrible (still pretty bad for a case mortality rate tho) but this is combined with an INSANE virality rate... It’s possibly 3-4 times as contagious As the flu. The Seasonal flu has an R0 that hovers around 1.3. A brother posted a few posts back, this shyt may be well over R4.
Meaning for every person that has it, it’s expected to be spread to 4 others.. it’s spreading like crazy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship for an example ..1/3 of those tested have it and there’s a case where it’s suspected someone contracted it from someone that lived 10 floors above them in an apartment building because of a broken pipe in the bathroom. So a scenario where 50mil people contract it isn’t unrealistic.
our best hopes
1. It’s isolated and put to rest (not likely)
2. A highly effective vaccine (will take 18 months)
3. China mishandled the initial response so there are actually 10s of thousands who have it but are recovering, or had mild symptoms/were asymptotic AND the death numbers reported by the CCP are fairly accurate
4. Asian males have a higher expression of ACE2 enzymes in their lungs (ncov uses this as a host receptor) so the deaths in China are disproportionate to what they will be elsewhere
I think the last two could be correct.. so we should be ok... but if not, buckle up
What is the mortality rate for seasonal flu in China?
If I’m not mistaken, you appear to be comparing US seasonal flu mortality rate with China’s Wuhan flu mortality rate?
My point is that perhaps China’s seasonal flu rates are typically higher than US’s, thus we can expect the Wuhan mortality rate to be higher in China than in US? Thus, Wuhan won’t be as deadly when it gets here.
bear in mind that I have no idea what the fukk I’m talking about...but still
Hmm ok.. the Lancet study from Jan said Only about 5% of patients reported sore throat and runny nose, if that makes you feel any better broLight cough
Sneezing
Runny nose
Regular cold shyt that the C-Virus just so happens to have before it goes Jamaican.
That’s a good point bro..
It’s hard to say because the consistency of China’s CDC is just different than the US
“The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted, the observer said.
Observers called for an improved statistical approach, and encouraged the public to get an annual flu shot.
An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases.”
so yea it’s tough to say bro
Ill-Yaz
FA Cup winning fan
The case mortality rate is MUCH worse but it’s hard to gauge just how much worse.. but it definitely appears to be around 10-20 times more deadly. To give perspective in the 2018-2019 flu season, you have about 43 million cases with around 61,000 deaths (In the US). That’s a lot of deaths but only a 0.14 case mortality rate. Roughly 1 in 700 people ended up passing away.
61200 ÷ 43000000 = 0.0014232558139535 = 0.14232558139535%
Coronavirus current global stats are 45,000 cases with 1,100 deaths. That’s a 2.44% death rate. Granted there must be cases that aren’t being diagnosed so the death rate would be lower.. but how much lower??
let’s say it’s half that at 1.22%.. it would still be 10 times as lethal as the flu. Let’s say 43 million ppl contract ncov19 within a similar time span (October 2020 through March 2021)
1.22% of 43000000 = 524600
That’s over a half a million people. Around 1 out of every 80 case would be fatal.
These are US projections I’m doing .. not world wide. That’s if 43 mil contracted it.. but what’s the chance of that???
2. Now The fukked up part... that 1.2-2.4% doesn’t sound completely terrible (still pretty bad for a case mortality rate tho) but this is combined with an INSANE virality rate... It’s possibly 3-4 times as contagious As the flu. The Seasonal flu has an R0 that hovers around 1.3. A brother posted a few posts back, this shyt may be well over R4.
Meaning for every person that has it, it’s expected to be spread to 4 others.. it’s spreading like crazy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship for an example ..1/3 of those tested have it and there’s a case where it’s suspected someone contracted it from someone that lived 10 floors above them in an apartment building because of a broken pipe in the bathroom. So a scenario where 50mil people contract it isn’t unrealistic.
our best hopes
1. It’s isolated and put to rest (not likely)
2. A highly effective vaccine (will take 18 months)
3. China mishandled the initial response so there are actually 10s of thousands who have it but are recovering, or had mild symptoms/were asymptotic AND the death numbers reported by the CCP are fairly accurate
4. Asian males have a higher expression of ACE2 enzymes in their lungs (ncov uses this as a host receptor) so the deaths in China are disproportionate to what they will be elsewhere
I think the last two could be correct.. so we should be ok... but if not, buckle up
How about you stop pulling numbers out of your ass?
The matter is a lot more complicated than that
You deadMan I suddenly got a cold, normally I don't get sick during the winter time.
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Coronavirus: Can it spread via door handles? And other questions
11 February 2020
11 February 2020
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