The case mortality rate is MUCH worse but it’s hard to gauge just how much worse.. but it definitely appears to be around 10-20 times more deadly. To give perspective in the 2018-2019 flu season, you have about 43 million cases with around 61,000 deaths (In the US). That’s a lot of deaths but only a 0.14 case mortality rate. Roughly 1 in 700 people ended up passing away.
61200 ÷ 43000000 = 0.0014232558139535 = 0.14232558139535%
Coronavirus current global stats are 45,000 cases with 1,100 deaths. That’s a 2.44% death rate. Granted there must be cases that aren’t being diagnosed so the death rate would be lower.. but how much lower??
let’s say it’s half that at 1.22%.. it would still be 10 times as lethal as the flu. Let’s say 43 million ppl contract ncov19 within a similar time span (October 2020 through March 2021)
1.22% of 43000000 =
524600
That’s over a half a million people. Around 1 out of every 80 case would be fatal.
These are US projections I’m doing .. not world wide. That’s if 43 mil contracted it.. but what’s the chance of that???
2. Now The fukked up part... that 1.2-2.4% doesn’t sound completely terrible (still pretty bad for a case mortality rate tho) but this is combined with an INSANE virality rate... It’s possibly 3-4 times as contagious As the flu. The
Seasonal flu has an R0 that hovers around 1.3. A brother posted a few posts back, this shyt may be well over R4.
Meaning for every person that has it, it’s expected to be spread to 4 others.. it’s spreading like crazy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship for an example ..1/3 of those tested have it and there’s a case where it’s suspected someone contracted it from someone that lived 10 floors above them in an apartment building because of a broken pipe in the bathroom. So a scenario where 50mil people contract it isn’t unrealistic.
our best hopes
1. It’s isolated and put to rest (not likely)
2. A highly effective vaccine (will take 18 months)
3. China mishandled the initial response so there are actually 10s of thousands who have it but are recovering, or had mild symptoms/were asymptotic but weren’t diagnosed AND the death numbers reported by the CCP are fairly accurate
4. Asian males have a higher expression of ACE2 enzymes in their lungs (ncov uses this as a host receptor) so the deaths in China are disproportionate to what they will be elsewhere
I think the last two could be correct.. so we should be ok... but if not, buckle up