But it's been warmer in china and Australia this whole time
Huh? China is just coming out of winter. And Australia has only had 3 deaths, it hasn't shown epidemic-level community transmission there yet.
This is the paper I was referencing. Take a look at the map and where the big outbreaks have been so far. Weird as hell that a disease that started in China has wiped across Iran, southern Europe, and now the USA while leaving India and southeast Asia basically untouched.