COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)
- Thread starter null
- Start date
They have a much smaller populationIsrael already got 14% of their population vaccinated and should be done in a couple of months.
Mexico is also on fire and probably contributing with the spread in these two states.
null
...
triplehate
Superstar
One of my workers yesterday..."my kids went to a party this weekend, the daycare says they should quarantine can I still come in to work"?
Damn
Study: US COVID cases, deaths far higher than reported
Filed Under:
COVID-19
Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News
|
Jan 05, 2021
lab_technician-alberta_newsroom.jpg
Government of Alberta, Chris Schwarz / Flickr cc
An estimated 14.3% of the US population had antibodies against COVID-19 by mid-November 2020, suggesting that that the virus has infected vastly more people than reported—but still not enough to come close to the proportion needed for herd immunity, according to a study published today in JAMA Network Open.
In the cross-sectional study, researchers from study sponsors Pfizer and Merck analyzed data from random community seroprevalence surveys and five such regional and national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveys to estimate infection underreporting multipliers. Seroprevalence surveys reveal the proportion of a population that has antibodies against a certain disease, such as COVID-19.
After adjusting for underreporting using validated multipliers, the analysis revealed an estimated median 46,910,006 infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19; 28,122,752 symptomatic infections; 956,174 hospitalizations; and 304,915 deaths from April to mid-November.
According to those numbers, 14.3% of Americans had been infected with the novel coronavirus by Nov 15, 8.6% had symptomatic infections, with an infection-hospitalization ratio of 2.0% and a case-fatality ratio for people with symptoms of 1.1%.
In contrast, the CDC reported 10,846,373 COVID-19 cases and 244,810 deaths in that same time span, with 1,037,962 cases recorded in just the last 7 days of that period (on average, 148,280 new daily reported cases).
Estimated 35% of COVID deaths unreported
The authors noted that seroprevalence surveys are essential to monitoring progress toward herd immunity, which occurs when roughly 60% of a population has antibodies that can help slow community transmission. In comparison, reported case numbers are underestimates due to many symptomatic people not seeking testing or medical care and the estimated 40% who have no symptoms.
"The US population remains a long way from herd immunity even with millions of new infections each week," the researchers wrote. "The number of estimated COVID-19 deaths is also remarkably more than the reported deaths in the US through November 15, 2020, supporting the conclusion that approximately 35% of COVID-19 deaths are not reported."
They added that several methodologic issues need to be considered when using seroprevalence surveys to derive underreporting multipliers for the purpose of adjusting disease surveillance data to estimate the burden of illness. These issues include time from infection to antibody development, antibody waning, and reporting of confirmed infections. The multipliers also shift over time with changes in the proportion of the population who have been tested, diagnosed, and reported.
"A sensitivity analysis of the CDC seroprevalence surveys suggested that using the number of reported cases at the end of the survey period provides a useful estimate of the underreporting multipliers, particularly early in the pandemic," the authors said. "Therefore, the number of reported cases on the last day of the seroprevalence survey was used in the COVID-19 disease burden estimation in this study."
The researchers concluded that surveillance must continue to measure progress toward herd immunity. "Additional seroprevalence surveys are warranted to monitor the pandemic, including after the development of safe and efficacious vaccines," they said.
Study: US COVID cases, deaths far higher than reported
Study: US COVID cases, deaths far higher than reported
Filed Under:
COVID-19
Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News
|
Jan 05, 2021
lab_technician-alberta_newsroom.jpg
Government of Alberta, Chris Schwarz / Flickr cc
An estimated 14.3% of the US population had antibodies against COVID-19 by mid-November 2020, suggesting that that the virus has infected vastly more people than reported—but still not enough to come close to the proportion needed for herd immunity, according to a study published today in JAMA Network Open.
In the cross-sectional study, researchers from study sponsors Pfizer and Merck analyzed data from random community seroprevalence surveys and five such regional and national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveys to estimate infection underreporting multipliers. Seroprevalence surveys reveal the proportion of a population that has antibodies against a certain disease, such as COVID-19.
After adjusting for underreporting using validated multipliers, the analysis revealed an estimated median 46,910,006 infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19; 28,122,752 symptomatic infections; 956,174 hospitalizations; and 304,915 deaths from April to mid-November.
According to those numbers, 14.3% of Americans had been infected with the novel coronavirus by Nov 15, 8.6% had symptomatic infections, with an infection-hospitalization ratio of 2.0% and a case-fatality ratio for people with symptoms of 1.1%.
In contrast, the CDC reported 10,846,373 COVID-19 cases and 244,810 deaths in that same time span, with 1,037,962 cases recorded in just the last 7 days of that period (on average, 148,280 new daily reported cases).
Estimated 35% of COVID deaths unreported
The authors noted that seroprevalence surveys are essential to monitoring progress toward herd immunity, which occurs when roughly 60% of a population has antibodies that can help slow community transmission. In comparison, reported case numbers are underestimates due to many symptomatic people not seeking testing or medical care and the estimated 40% who have no symptoms.
"The US population remains a long way from herd immunity even with millions of new infections each week," the researchers wrote. "The number of estimated COVID-19 deaths is also remarkably more than the reported deaths in the US through November 15, 2020, supporting the conclusion that approximately 35% of COVID-19 deaths are not reported."
They added that several methodologic issues need to be considered when using seroprevalence surveys to derive underreporting multipliers for the purpose of adjusting disease surveillance data to estimate the burden of illness. These issues include time from infection to antibody development, antibody waning, and reporting of confirmed infections. The multipliers also shift over time with changes in the proportion of the population who have been tested, diagnosed, and reported.
"A sensitivity analysis of the CDC seroprevalence surveys suggested that using the number of reported cases at the end of the survey period provides a useful estimate of the underreporting multipliers, particularly early in the pandemic," the authors said. "Therefore, the number of reported cases on the last day of the seroprevalence survey was used in the COVID-19 disease burden estimation in this study."
The researchers concluded that surveillance must continue to measure progress toward herd immunity. "Additional seroprevalence surveys are warranted to monitor the pandemic, including after the development of safe and efficacious vaccines," they said.
Study: US COVID cases, deaths far higher than reported
From the article:nothing suspicious here
WHO Covid team blocked from entering China to study origins of coronavirus - CNN
WHO team blocked from entering China to study origins of coronavirus
By Helen Regan and Sandi Sidhu, CNN
Updated 5:09 AM ET, Wed January 6, 2021
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus attends a news conference at WHO headquarters in Geneva on July 3, 2020.
Hong Kong (CNN)The World Health Organization said that China has blocked the arrival of a team investigating the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, in a rare rebuke from the UN agency.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said two scientists on the United Nations team had already left their home countries for Wuhan when they were told that Chinese officials had not approved the necessary permissions to enter the country.
The arrangements had been jointly agreed with China in advance.
"I am very disappointed with this news," Tedros told a news conference in Geneva on Tuesday. "I have been in contact with senior Chinese officials and I have once again made clear that the mission is a priority for WHO and the international team."
Tedros said WHO was "eager to get the mission underway as soon as possible" and that he had been given assurances that Beijing was speeding up the internal procedure for "the earliest possible deployment."
Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of WHO's health emergencies program said there was an issue with visas and one team member had already returned home. The other was waiting in transit in a third country.
WHO officials have long been negotiating with Beijing to allow a team of global scientists access to key sites to investigate the origin of the virus -- first detected in Wuhan in December 2019 -- and its likely jump from an unidentified host species to humans.
In May, WHO agreed to hold an inquiry into the global response to the pandemic after more than 100 countries signed a resolution calling for an independent probe.
Leaked documents reveal China's mishandling of the early stages of Covid-19
Ryan said the team hoped it was "just a logistical and bureaucratic issue" that can be resolved in "good faith in the coming hours and recommence the deployment of the team as soon as possible."
In a press briefing Wednesday, spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hua Chunying, said China had "always held an open, transparent and responsible attitude" on tracing the origin of the virus.
Hua said that China had previously welcomed WHO experts into the country and said that the UN investigation team and Chinese experts have "maintained frequent interactions" including four video meetings between October and December.
"In order to ensure that the international expert group that comes to China can work smoothly, it is needed to fulfill the necessary procedures and make relevant specific arrangements. The two sides are still negotiating about this," said Hua.
Marion Koopmans, a Dutch virologist who heads the Erasmus Medical Centre's Department of Viroscience in Rotterdam and is part of the investigation team heading to China, said that they were "ready to go."
Koopmans said that they have been told nothing is off limits while in China and said the team will be working in collaboration with their Chinese colleagues "looking at the data, talking to people with expertise, and concluding from what's been done, and what can be built on."
She said it was important to understand the origins of how the virus made the leap to humans because there is "no country that doesn't have risk of disease emergence. It's something we need to understand, so the whole world can prepare."
"We really need to have patience and not judge. It's meticulous work, it will take time," Koopmans said.
Political tensions
The United States and Australia have led the charge in criticizing China's handling of the initial stages of the pandemic, accusing Beijing of downplaying its severity and preventing an effective response until too late.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly blamed China for the global pandemic and announced that the US would terminate its relationship with WHO, saying that China had not properly reported information it had about the coronavirus and had pressured WHO to "mislead the world."
The US has demanded transparency in WHO operations in China. In November, Garrett Grigsby with the US Department of Health and Human Services told WHO's assembly that the terms of the investigation to China were "not negotiated in a transparent way" and "the investigation itself appears to be inconsistent" with its mandate.
A trove of confidential documents obtained by CNN last year from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei province -- where the virus was first detected in 2019 -- showed how Chinese officials gave the world more optimistic data than they had access to internally, by initially underreporting case numbers during the early stages of the outbreak.
China's latest potential culprit in its search for foreign coronavirus sources? Auto parts packaging
As countries around the world struggle with new infection surges and outbreaks, China appears to be rebounding. Last month, the country posted positive economic growth for the second quarter in a row.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi praised China's anti-pandemic efforts at home and abroad, saying that the country "launched an emergency global humanitarian campaign" and "helped build consensus on a global response to Covid-19."
As the WHO team prepared to embark, Chinese officials and state media have questioned the virus' origins, saying "more and more research suggests that the pandemic was likely to have been caused by separate outbreaks in multiple places in the world," according to Wang.
On Monday, reports circulated on Chinese social media that the virus had been detected on auto part packaging in multiple cities, including from foreign brands.
For months, China has been testing and disinfecting frozen products imported from overseas, over fears the virus could reenter the country that way, even as experts remain skeptical about this as a potential source of infection.
WHO says it is "highly unlikely that people can contract Covid-19 from food or food packaging," and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says the risk is "thought to be very low." Both insist there is no evidence of such transmission, and countries have even threatened to bring a case against China at the World Trade Organization over import restrictions.
Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of WHO's health emergencies program said there was an issue with visas and one team member had already returned home. The other was waiting in transit in a third country.
Seems to be a visa issue. This is the same WHO that has praised china for its transparency. I think the article seems a bit misleading.
DaRealness
I think very deeply
WHO been trying to get in China to investigate since February. I domt believe this visa excuse
In Hunt for Virus Source, W.H.O. Let China Take Charge
Perhaps. But shouldn't all countries be investigated in the origins of covid when there's evidence that countries like italy, usa, france, and spain had cases prior to wuhan? The army lab at fort derrick researching deadly germs was shut down in july 2019 due to fears of things escaping. Coincidentally representatives were also in china during the wuhan war games. There's a lot of speculation on covid being here many months before wuhan like the mysterious vaping disease. All countries should submit to an independent who investigation, even this country which did refuse who to investigate back in may and 100 countries signed to agree on an investigation including china.
I think we will eventually find the origin of covid and all the speculation of it leaking from a lab or if it came from a bat,etc , will come to surface. But for most people and the purpose of getting back to normal, the response is what's important and that is also investigated along with the origin.
null
...
if they were studying it in a lab maybe they know something that the rest of the world does not. maybe through their studies they know how to manipulate the genome better than the rest of the world. there was gain-of-function studies being done on corona viruses in wuhan and the changes from bat to human version are significant and specific (anthropic reasoning acknowledged) are "less likely to happen by chance".
the reason for studying wuhan is not because they had the first case (because we don't know when that happened), it is because wuhan had the first mass cluster while also having the lab and the GOF studies.
I think there should be an investigation in china and other countries. Those labs were us funded, shouldn't those studies have been shared? Rather, why not just request the studies if it haven't been shared yet? Even a us investigation concludes that this was most likely a natural virus and not lab made. Again, I think they should be investigated, in addition to all other countries to find the origin and to prevent future pandemics.
null
...
The artefacts would have been in the lab in China. The day to day activities too. People behind an iron curtain are not free to talk freely and are unlikely to speak or share compromising information via public or open channels.
I think they want to investigate and that means more than just asking for reports.
That conclusion was tenuous at best. I think I know what you are referring to and it was discussed on here. One basis for their position was that the SARS Cov II virus would be an unlikely candidate for targeted experimentation which means that they wouldn't have wasted resources doing it in the first place. They also mentioned "no proof of" as being the reason why the virus was natural. You are quoting the conclusion without being aware of the reasons for that conclusion methinks.
Again, the reason for studying wuhan is not because they had the first case (because we don't know when that happened), it is because wuhan had the first mass cluster while also having the lab and the GOF studies. these factors mean that wuhan should be first in line to kick-off a study. It is (as they say) a prime candidate.