COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

[winb83]

Except there are increasing evidence that this is extremely rare to the point of being insignificant

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

No it isn't rare. The CDC estimates half the spread of COVID is by asymptomatic or presymptomatic carriers that don't know they have the virus.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Masks are primarily intended to reduce the emission of virus-laden droplets (“source control”), which is especially relevant for asymptomatic or presymptomatic infected wearers who feel well and may be unaware of their infectiousness to others, and who are estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions

What you posted is spread from inside a household to other household members not how it's getting from one household to another.

 

[heisenburrr]

No it isn't rare. The CDC estimates half the spread of COVID is by asymptomatic or presymptomatic carriers that don't know they have the virus.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

What you posted is spread from inside a household to other household members not how it's getting from one household to another.

The data referenced on this CDC page is outdated and doesn't mesh with current studies.

A meta analysis from last month focused on community transmission talks about 17% transmission rates.

Your last comment doesn't make any sense. A household is a microcosm of a community and contagion rates/factors are much higher therefore if asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread in households is negligible then it cannot be assumed to be higher in community

 

[winb83]

The data referenced on this CDC page is outdated and doesn't mesh with current studies.

A meta analysis from last month focused on community transmission talks about 17% transmission rates.

Your last comment doesn't make any sense. A household is a microcosm of a community and contagion rates/factors are much higher therefore if asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread in households is negligible in a household then it cannot be assumed to be higher in community

That is from a month ago. November 20th. It's December 28th now.
If you've been exposed to the coronavirus - Harvard Health.

The time from exposure to symptom onset (known as the incubation period) is thought to be three to 14 days, though symptoms typically appear within four or five days after exposure.

We know that a person with COVID-19 may be contagious 48 to 72 hours before starting to experience symptoms. Emerging research suggests that people may actually be most likely to spread the virus to others during the 48 hours before they start to experience symptoms.

How can the argument be made that people are most contagious 2-3 days before they start showing symptoms yet people who aren't showing symptoms are a negligible part of the spread? From a pure logic point this is spreading so wildly for a reason. If you didn't have to worry until you started showing symptoms this would be much easier to contain. There's a reason the guidance isn't don't quarantine until you show symptoms.

 

[heisenburrr]

That is from a month ago. November 20th. It's December 28th now.
If you've been exposed to the coronavirus - Harvard Health.

How can the argument be made that people are most contagious 2-3 days before they start showing symptoms yet people who aren't showing symptoms are a negligible part of the spread? From a pure logic point this is spreading so wildly for a reason. If you didn't have to worry until you started showing symptoms this would be much easier to contain. There's a reason the guidance isn't don't quarantine until you show symptoms.

It's spreading wildly because it is very contagious. (>2-3x typical flu)

That article doesn't reference any published research meanwhile I've pointed out two published in the last month that make a significant case for negligible asymptomatic transmission using dozens of case studies...

I'm open to changing my mind but I'm also not surprised that there is contradictory information out there. Science on this is moving very quickly. Remember when everyone was worried about catching it on surfaces and shyt. Now we know that's practically impossible to the extent that washing your hands every 10 minutes and putting alcohol gel in every store you go is most probably overkill.

 

[winb83]

It's spreading wildly because it is very contagious. (>2-3x typical flu)

That article doesn't reference any published research meanwhile I've pointed out two published in the last month that make a significant case for negligible asymptomatic transmission using dozens of case studies...

I'm open to changing my mind but I'm also not surprised that there is contradictory information out there. Science on this is moving very quickly. Remember when everyone was worried about catching it on surfaces and shyt. Now we know that's practically impossible to the extent that washing your hands every 10 minutes and putting alcohol gel in every store you go is most probably overkill.

For all functional purposes the difference between asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission to us are negligible. Both are spread by someone who doesn't yet know they're sick. One of those person will never show symptoms and the other will show them later. Split hairs over that if you want. Either way the carrier doesn't at the time of spreading it know they're a carrier.

 

[Mike18jj]

My neighbors had a Christmas party that had about 9 different cars in her yard, I hope they make it out okay.


I saw several people going in her house with no mask, some people wore a mask and arrived there with people who didn't have a mask.


She asked me whether I wanted a plate and I say no, then she got mad because she figured I was judging her for having all those people over and yes I was.

 

[null]

California has mandatory mask across state AFAIK yet top 3 average daily/cases. Is that all because of the few that don't wear masks?

Masks are more prevalent than they ever were since this shyt started yet there are more cases than ever.

Is this really the crux of the issue or is there more to it?

Maybe fomites are also playing a bigger role with the new "more infectious" strains

 

[heisenburrr]

Maybe fomites are also playing a bigger role with the new "more infectious" strains

No fomites transmission is a myth

 

[null]

It's spreading wildly because it is very contagious. (>2-3x typical flu)

That article doesn't reference any published research meanwhile I've pointed out two published in the last month that make a significant case for negligible asymptomatic transmission using dozens of case studies...

I'm open to changing my mind but I'm also not surprised that there is contradictory information out there. Science on this is moving very quickly. Remember when everyone was worried about catching it on surfaces and shyt. Now we know that's practically impossible to the extent that washing your hands every 10 minutes and putting alcohol gel in every store you go is most probably overkill.

It's not "practically impossible".

That's me reading your "practically" in the idiomatic sense, rather than the "in practice" sense.

Speaking of moving quickly, there is the new "50-odd" percent more infectious strain circulating now, with all that that entails for infectious dosage, fomites etc.

I remember when those studies were discussed on here.

 

[null]

No fomites transmission is a myth

Nope. You are misreading studies.

 

[heisenburrr]

Nope. You are misreading studies.

Please point to relevant study.

 

[null]

Please point to relevant study.

Nah.

We are all tired of dummies so let's keep this short and sweet.

I am going to need you to explain to me why the physical surface transfer of SARS II works sometimes (swab, test tube, in labs generally etc) and (according to you) doesn't work sometimes (fingers, spoons, packaging etc).

 

[heisenburrr]

Nah.

We are all tired of dummies so let's keep this short and sweet.

I am going to need you to explain to me why the physical surface transfer of SARS II works sometimes (swab, test tube, in labs generally etc) and (according to you) doesn't work sometimes (fingers, spoons, packaging etc).

Stupid question, stupid answer:

Viral dose

 

[heisenburrr]

I mean did you even read the quoted study?

They went around a fukking IR ward swabbing walls and shyt and could barely find any viral RNA.

Finding traces of viruses on surface does not mean it's necessarily possible for those to contaminate people. Do I really need to spell this out?

 

[winb83]

Nah.

We are all tired of dummies so let's keep this short and sweet.

I am going to need you to explain to me why the physical surface transfer of SARS II works sometimes (swab, test tube, in labs generally etc) and (according to you) doesn't work sometimes (fingers, spoons, packaging etc).

It's theoretically possible but that's not thought to be the main way it's spread. If you're getting this chances are you breathed it in from someone around you that shed it rather than through touched surfaces. I mean just think about it, if you're around someone that's shedding the virus what are the odds you won't breath it in first anyway?