COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

[null]

No correlation to seasonality has been established..

They can't even certify seasonality of other things that have been around for 5 years.

And it hasn't even been a year. You can't determine seasonality ... without all the goddamn season


The fact you even said this shyt makes me angry.

You don't even know what you don't know.

Are you an adult?

Heat and humidity do reduce virus SARS I viability outside of the body and because SARS NCov II ("coronavirus 19") has the same structure it is expected that normal weather range temps will have a similar effect.

That may or may not have a large effect based on relative prevalence of transmission paths. If most people get it from direct cough droplets it will not have such a great effect. If most people get it from older fomites then the effect will be greater.

 

[Bawon Samedi]

They gonna give this like a month and a half then the Republicans are gonna be like fukk it and reopen. It was a miracle so many of them got on board in the first place. Brehs talking about shutting everything down for 6 months and shyt. It'll bring about anarchy. People will gather on their own. The suicide rate would spike something terrible as extroverts would be unable to deal with such long term isolation. Most if not all of our businesses would still go belly up.

It would tear this country apart.

Whole shyt is laughable.

Like I said there will be outbreaks here and there but the next wave will be much more manageable.

 

[winb83]

We aren't being sent upstate breh. You have ALL ur freedoms except to be in bars restaurants basically. Start to enjoy ur life....

If this last 2 months in total consider it luck. People won't be able to handle 6 months in isolation. Trump won't sign on for that and the moment he relaxes the CDC guidelines all the Republican governors will reopen their states. It's just not going to happen. One way or the other this will end probably in early to mid May.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

What makes you think there will be a vaccine?

I've read that coronaviruses are easier to treat than say viruses that causes the seasonal flu and the common cold.

Ironically, there was a vaccine for the 2003 SARS but when it came out there was no more pandemic.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Heat and humidity do reduce virus SARS I viability outside of the body and because SARS NCov II ("coronavirus 19") has the same structure it is expected that normal weather range temps will have a similar effect.

That may or may not have a large effect based on relative prevalence of transmission paths. If most people get it from direct cough droplets it will not have such a great effect. If most people get it from older fomites then the effect will be greater.

Im familiar with the argument, but its not panning out. This is booming everywhere, even in "winter climates" in South America right now.

 

[sayyestothis]

If this last 2 months in total consider it luck. People won't be able to handle 6 months in isolation. Trump won't sign on for that and the moment he relaxes the CDC guidelines all the Republican governors will reopen their states. It's just not going to happen. One way or the other this will end probably in early to mid May.

My advice is count ur blessings...everyday....from someone that has been sent away for a year in actual lockdown deal with it in a positive vibe and stay safe...

 

[null]

Okay? And? You quoted a post back in MARCH 5th when we didn't know when the curve will flatten.

Edit: For the second one I said I bet it will be SLOWED down by May not that it would be completely flattened. Matter fact its already flattening here in NYC and its not even mid April. Either way we're not even seeing 100k deaths.

You spent a lot of time arguing for some arbitrary date when you "didn't know". What was your rational for picking May?

Being "locked down" is part of social distancing. If social distancing is reduced one would anticipate that case numbers would go up again.

Sweden is already trying this and they have a far lower population density overall - which in and of itself confers some degree of physical distancing.

Some countries in Asia (outside of China) which have attempted to "re-open" are socially distancing and wearing PPE but are still seeing case numbers grow again. China itself re-closed cinemas just recently (in the past 3 weeks) IIRC.

China Closed All Its Movie Theaters Again

As things stand unless something changes structurally about the disease or our capacity to fight it we cannot return to normal life.

We need to give scientists time to study the disease in the wild (in the West) and wait for their initially prognoses to come in.

When you say "end of lockdown" does that mean a return to normal life? If not what exactly do you mean?

Spoiler: me being specific

We still don't have enough information I think.

We have to get more into from Sweden (lax controls), China (removing controls) and USA / UK / Italy / Spain (effect of controls) to be able to make a more informed guess. We also need open topics re. the virus answered (re-infection, long term organ damage, strains etc).

Right now given what we know I don't see a return to normal life until we find an effective vaccine. We might have something similar to normal-ish life with additional precautions (social distancing, restrictions on high risk groups, more working from home, regular / antibody tests, useful antibody / immune register, PPE) by around July at the earliest IMO. But the curve will have to have been significantly flattened by then - with far fewer cases.

The only way I could see a return to more-or-less normality happening earlier is either by,

1. the weather wiping the virus out - unlikely
2. finding some hitherto unseen hand-of-god factor like a miracle drug, miracle protective device or system
3. inventing a super screening test along with the curve having been flattened
4. discovering that this is not as dangerous as it seems to be.
5. we reach herd-immunity - unlikely

IMO.

Subject to review.

 

[How Sway?]

Scientist already proven that humidity slows it down. The second wave in the Fall will be easily monitored and dealt with from what officials have said.
More importantly you will have outbreaks, until a vaccine is made but you won't have nationwide or months (plural) long shutdowns. We're going to be living with small outbreaks which will be manageable. Plus there will be treatments by then. NY is already flattening and its not even middle of April yet lol. By July we will have our REAL answer.


Anyone who thinks this lockdown is going to last till the vaccine comes out is crazy. The economy/markets will suffer.

My brotha

New orleans has had temperatures in the 80s consistently throughout march, and is one of the most humid cities in the country, and it infection is even way above new New York's.

Florida also has a high rate of the corona as well.

Please direct me to this evidence that heat and humidity slows the virus down?

 

[Knucklehead]

Whole shyt is laughable.

Like I said there will be outbreaks here and there but the next wave will be much more manageable.

Serious question. Where do you get your info from? Is there a specific site or person you’re listening to?

 

[null]

Im familiar with the argument, but its not panning out. This is booming everywhere, even in "winter climates" in South America right now.

It could be panning out because it is dependent on how the disease is mostly transferred from person to person. If the major route of transfer is direct person to person then two places with social distancing and mandatory masks but with varying temperatures have to be compared, That is how you remove / reduce the major variable to see the temperature effect.

And the temperature suggestion is that heat reduces viability and cold increases it.

 

[Clarence Boddicker]

My breh in Miami sent me this

 

[itsyoung!!]

We aren't being sent upstate breh. You have ALL ur freedoms except to be in bars restaurants basically. Start to enjoy ur life....

what state do you live in

 

[Bawon Samedi]

People won't obey that. What are you gonna do have the military kill them in the streets. The US isn't build for a 6 month lock down.

Heck word on the streets that South Africa is slowly opening

My brotha

New orleans has had temperatures in the 80s consistently throughout march, and is one of the most humid cities in the country, and it infection is even way above new New York's.

Florida also has a high rate of the corona as well.

Please direct me to this evidence that heat and humidity slows the virus down?

This paper investigates the influence of air temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 hand-collected pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework, high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively. One-degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0225 and 0.0158, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of influenza and SARS. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19. We also developed a website to provide R of major cities around the world according to their daily temperature and relative humidity.

High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 by Jingyuan Wang, Ke Tang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv :: SSRN

And yea...... Florida and Louisiana didnt follow strict social distancing either way their cases are much lower than NY. Either way what about the other southern states? More importantly Sub-Sahara Africa has low cases even if they aren't mass testing their death counts are very low.

 

[Bawon Samedi]

Serious question. Where do you get your info from? Is there a specific site or person you’re listening to?

Actual statistics and new sources. More importantly I'm not the one saying everything may reopen.
NY Daily News - We are currently unavailable in your region

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]