COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

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That is what I have been struggling to understand for weeks now, ever since it was reported that China peaked.

We know two things for sure. Reinfection is occurring and there is no vaccine. How can we be sure of peaks when those two things are facts? That question is rhetorical, as I understand its impossible for you to know. But that is what I have been asking myself over and over.

One of those two things needs to be removed from the equation before we can really believe we have reached a peak, right? I hope I'm wrong and missing something, but I just don't see it.

If is an expected value peak based on "current" behaviour...

If everyone went outside and had a big party tomorrow the model feedback loop would change all of those curves.
 

How Sway?

Great Value Man
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There's no way we're being on lockdown for an additional month.

Summer is over breh

It can easily spike back up if they lift restrictions esp. In the summer when people are congregating and traveling....that'd be a terrible idea.

Just gotta deal with it....
 

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You will have no summer.

No social events will commence.

This is the new normal until the vaccine.

They flip-flop between one assumed certainty to another because the subtlety of what those models actually mean is lost on them.

:hhh: . They are so far behind the curve that someone would have to st down and explain it to them as you would a child. And even then they would argue.

"The future is not yet written" and is dependent on what we do now.
 

Bawon Samedi

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Good bye Coli(2014-2020)
Summer is over breh

It can easily spike back up if they lift restrictions esp. In the summer when people are congregating and traveling....that'd be a terrible idea.

Just gotta deal with it....
Scientist already proven that humidity slows it down. The second wave in the Fall will be easily monitored and dealt with from what officials have said.
More importantly you will have outbreaks, until a vaccine is made but you won't have nationwide or months (plural) long shutdowns. We're going to be living with small outbreaks which will be manageable. Plus there will be treatments by then. NY is already flattening and its not even middle of April yet lol. By July we will have our REAL answer.


Anyone who thinks this lockdown is going to last till the vaccine comes out is crazy. The economy/markets will suffer.
 

tremonthustler1

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my theory why Corona is especially killing folks is bc we work those essential, low paying jobs without no benefits (except medical )

but love I said.... Mexicans work the same shyt jobs. They unhealthy too. Why arent they getting hit?
blacks-or-african-american-in-the-labor-force_table.PNG
In NYC, Hispanics have been hit with 34% of the covid-19 cases, African-Americans at 28% last I checked.
 

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thashiek

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If is an expected value peak based on "current" behaviour...

If everyone went outside and had a big party tomorrow the model feedback loop would change all of those curves.

Yea, that makes sense. Unfortunately, if the guy I was quoting is in anyway prophetic, the model will change soon. More people will go back outside and for longer periods, while interacting with more people. Thus, giving us a new peak.
 
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