Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic

ADevilYouKhow

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Ministers know which masks provide the best Covid protection – why not tell the UK public? | Claire Horwell


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storyteller

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Still pretty speculative but some interesting bits coming together.

A computational biologist weighs in on Omicron, the future of vaccines, and the CDC’s variant forecast

There's a good bit at the end about media reporting on models versus data and I think that conflation is another of many contributors to people being confused about what's fact and fiction with the virus (and what's known vs what's speculation).

Other interesting bits:
- He sides with the idea that Omicron symptoms are similar in severity to Delta, but that between natural immunity and vaccines the symptoms appear more mild because of so many breakthrough infections.

- When he gets asked if we're overreacting to Omicron he pretty much says it's too early to know. He basically scales concern, and says Delta was a 6 whereas Omicron's concern falls anywhere from 3-8...so not particularly helpful.

- The other interesting speculative bit is that the fast rise in cases and then quick drop-off (at least what it looks like from early examples) can be explained by a faster turnaround. Person gets it faster, is infectious faster, and then is no longer infected faster...put it all together and you have a fast rise with an equally quick drop-off.

- This bit sucks if his speculation holds...
the worry is that through things like Omicron and [antibody] waning and everything else that’s going on, that every winter we get significant attack rates. So I can imagine easily over the course of 2022 that 50% of people will catch Omicron or some other variant. So lots and lots of infections. Maybe we’ll stop counting cases as much because there’ll be a bunch of asymptomatic and mild infections that people don’t even bother to get tested for. A small proportion of severe disease and death. But I still could easily imagine 100,000 people [in the United States] dying every year from Covid in the endemic state just because you have a very big number of infections, even if the infection fatality rate is quite low.
Click to expand...
 
Poetical Poltergeist

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Sinnerman said:
I mentioned it in the other thread in TLR, but almost everyone I know is either infected with Covid, or is in quarantine because someone they're close to has it
Click to expand...
Yep. At this time u have to assume everyone u come in contact with either has it or was in contact with the infected. My entire immediate family and majority of my extended family are all in isolation right now.
 
Althalucian

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Poetical Poltergeist said:
Yep. At this time u have to assume everyone u come in contact with either has it or was in contact with the infected. My entire immediate family and majority of my extended family are all in isolation right now.
Click to expand...

So, is this going to be a catastrophe within a month or two, or is this really the "end of the pandemic" like a lot of people say?

I've read some stuff that 40-50% of infections are still Delta and the rest Omicron. Considering Delta is very nasty, doesn't that mean a ton of deaths and overcrowding at hospitals still? And Omicron is crazily infectious with some ridiculous R value, so everyone is getting sick at once too - even if it's not as bad as Delta - meaning too many hospital beds being taken up, right? Even if it has some less hospitalization rate. I'm just confused at the USA's response to this. People either don't want to talk about this I've noticed on my social media or people are saying that we're all going to get it so whatever.

Considering the effects this will have on the rest of our systems I just see insane chaos ensuing from the explosion in cases and a crazy increase in apathy. I'm confused that other people don't see it that way too. You don't want to have a stroke or get into a car accident during this time because resources are generally horrible. Everyone is sick at the same time and we noticed that restaurants and businesses that said they were going to be open the past week are closed or their service is complete shyt by their own admission BECAUSE of covid. Doesn't that also mean that services in all other industries are likely to be shyt too?

Brehs, what's going on here? Do we have any more predictive power here? Seems leadership is out on permanent vacation now. Are we in head-in-the-sand mode or is something else going on?
 
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Althalucian said:
So, is this going to be a catastrophe within a month or two, or is this really the "end of the pandemic" like a lot of people say?

I've read some stuff that 40-50% of infections are still Delta and the rest Omicron. Considering Delta is very nasty, doesn't that mean a ton of deaths and overcrowding at hospitals still? And Omicron is crazily infectious with some ridiculous R value, so everyone is getting sick at once too - even if it's not as bad as Delta - meaning too many hospital beds being taken up, right? Even if it has some less hospitalization rate. I'm just confused at the USA's response to this. People either don't want to talk about this I've noticed on my social media or people are saying that we're all going to get it so whatever.

Considering the effects this will have on the rest of our systems I just see insane chaos ensuing from the explosion in cases and a crazy increase in apathy. I'm confused that other people don't see it that way too. You don't want to have a stroke or get into a car accident during this time because resources are generally horrible. Everyone is sick at the same time and we noticed that restaurants and businesses that said they were going to be open the past week are closed or their service is complete shyt by their own admission BECAUSE of covid. Doesn't that also mean that services in all other industries are likely to be shyt too?

Brehs, what's going on here? Do we have any more predictive power here? Seems leadership is out on permanent vacation now. Are we in head-in-the-sand mode or is something else going on?
Click to expand...

Estimated Hot Takes
  • I think in terms of the Deaths... I think what you will see is the WORST CASE scenario in terms of Medical Infrastructure pushed to it's limits. I don't think COVID-19 has become more deadly, but in comparison to 2021 where you had that high ICU rate but had staff... your asking 2022 to do the same exact thing with less staff either from burnout/infected; so it will be deadly because of the lack of resources.
  • Already my cousin was trapped in Texas because he wanted to visit his girlfriend's family for Christmas, but had SEVERE Airline disruptions from pilot walkout or being ill; I expect that to be the same, and I expect Summer Travel for Independence Day to be chaotic as fukk.
  • I expect Food Shortages and Disruptions in 2022, because along with factory line workers, you will have Migrant workers getting sick.
  • With that I expect more Union/Walkouts in protest of either mandates/or no protection.
  • School Systems will be heavily disrupted still.
  • We will have to take a 4th Shot, 2nd Booster as of May-June
  • I expect a New Variant to pop up in South America in May-June as they begin their 'Winter' season; maybe India as well.
 
Poetical Poltergeist

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Althalucian said:
So, is this going to be a catastrophe within a month or two, or is this really the "end of the pandemic" like a lot of people say?

I've read some stuff that 40-50% of infections are still Delta and the rest Omicron. Considering Delta is very nasty, doesn't that mean a ton of deaths and overcrowding at hospitals still? And Omicron is crazily infectious with some ridiculous R value, so everyone is getting sick at once too - even if it's not as bad as Delta - meaning too many hospital beds being taken up, right? Even if it has some less hospitalization rate. I'm just confused at the USA's response to this. People either don't want to talk about this I've noticed on my social media or people are saying that we're all going to get it so whatever.

Considering the effects this will have on the rest of our systems I just see insane chaos ensuing from the explosion in cases and a crazy increase in apathy. I'm confused that other people don't see it that way too. You don't want to have a stroke or get into a car accident during this time because resources are generally horrible. Everyone is sick at the same time and we noticed that restaurants and businesses that said they were going to be open the past week are closed or their service is complete shyt by their own admission BECAUSE of covid. Doesn't that also mean that services in all other industries are likely to be shyt too?

Brehs, what's going on here? Do we have any more predictive power here? Seems leadership is out on permanent vacation now. Are we in head-in-the-sand mode or is something else going on?
Click to expand...
I am trying to stay positive and hoping this is a flash wave and passes through quickly. Even tho I am sick I don't need hospital care nor does any of my family. Thinking back to last January seemed like it was the worst it could get but we go thru it, so same here.

People are fatigued dealing with it, talking about it and just trying to avoid it. I've been going to Bronco games all fall and felt safe, but I will skip next week's game and encourage people I know who haven't caught it to not go. Even tho it's outside, you can catch it in the bathrooms and concourse and hardly anyone wears masks at the games.

I think my daughter might have it too, so I am watching her closely but I am concerned about their school now because I am sure many of these kids families have caught it over the break.
 
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