The San Francisco Chronicle paints a dire picture. One alarmist
headline reads “Organized crime drives S.F. shoplifting, closing 17 Walgreens in five years” and describes seniors losing access to prescription drugs and other vital services after their neighborhood pharmacy is forced to shutter. The paper
doubled-down on this narrative last week based on video of a single shoplifting incident, in which a man shoves items into a garbage bag and then flees on a bicycle. Similarly, the New York Times
reported that “the mundane crime of shoplifting has spun out of control in San Francisco,” with stores closing “largely because the scale of thefts had made business untenable.”
The source for this information? The retailers themselves, backed by anecdotal reports from law enforcement.
The stories draw from a San Francisco Board of Supervisors hearing that Supervisor Ahsha Safai convened last month. There,
reports the Chronicle, “retailers attributed a majority of losses to professional thieves instead of opportunistic shoplifters who may be driven by poverty, with one CVS leader calling San Francisco a hub of organized retail crime.” That “leader” is Brendan Dugan, CVS Health’s “director of organized retail crime and corporate investigations,” who said “professional crime accounts for 85% of the company’s dollar losses” in San Francisco.
The Chronicle and the Times also reported retailer claims that criminal justice reform is to blame, particularly Proposition 47, which California voters passed in 2014 to reduce penalties for thefts worth less than $950. According
to supermarket chain Safeway, the new law, which has been a
critical tool in fighting mass incarceration, led to “dramatic increases” in shoplifting losses.
For his part, Safai wrote on
Twitter that “the numbers speak for themselves,” and posted a Walgreens-produced graphic that uses four cartoon robbers to indicate the prevalence of “professional theft” in San Francisco. (By comparison, New York City only has 1.5 cartoon robbers.)
In none of this reporting did anyone apparently ask for actual data, or the methodology used to obtain it, or, say, the definition of “organized retail crime” and
how retailers could possibly know exactly how much theft it’s responsible for. And when commentators like
Adam Johnson, co-host of the podcast “Citations Needed” and a former staff writer at The Appeal, and
law professor John Pfaff pointed this out, they confronted disbelief: “Are you accusing Walgreens of falsifying that data?”
tweeted Michelle Tandler, a self-described “Moderate Dem” and founder of a life skills company. Michael Shellenberger, a writer and commentator on environmentalism,
asked, “Why would Safeway lie?”
More thorough reporting would have provided reasons for skepticism. It could have mentioned that Walgreens
announced in 2019 that it was closing hundreds of stores nationwide as a cost-saving measure, and that, as Johnson
noted, Walgreens has closed stores in New York City at a higher rate without allegations of rampant organized crime.
Beyond that, the stories could have explained how
the actual data shows that crime in San Francisco, including property crime, has dropped to record lows. Thefts overall are down
compared to the five-year average from 2015 to 2019, and, according to police data, larceny (which includes shoplifting) is
down 14 percent from this same point last year (or, to compare to a non-pandemic year, down 33 percent from the first five months of 2019). The Chronicle dismissed the relevance of this based on a police explanation, writing that police said “incidents are often underreported and have become more violent and brazen.”
And Safeway’s assertion that criminal justice reform is causing more crime could have been rebutted with the 2018 University of California, Irvine
study, which concluded that while larceny “increased moderately,” overall, “we find very little evidence to suggest that Proposition 47 caused crime to increase in California.”
Even more glaring is the failure to note or investigate retailers’ long history of pushing for draconian shoplifting penalties based on dubious claims of significant crime waves.
An October 2020
report by the consumer-interest group Public Citizen explained how, “in recent years, the retail industry has advocated against criminal justice reforms that reduce shoplifting sentences and/or supported harsher anti-shoplifting laws in 18 states,” with retailers winning in 11 of those states. In California, major grocers including Safeway collectively
spent hundreds of thousands of dollars supporting an unsuccessful 2020 ballot measure to roll back Proposition 47 and
create longer prison sentences for shoplifting, among other harsh criminal penalties.