Anthony Kuehn is the editor of the Detroit Lions blog Lions Gab . His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers. Get in touch with Anthony at lionsgab@gmail.com or on Twitter @lionsgab.
The Green Bay Packers haven't won since losing Aaron Rodgers a month ago and they are still hanging a half game behind the Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North.
Just wrap your head around that for a second. The Lions were 5-3 at the halfway mark of the season and now sit at 6-5 with losses to the three-win Steelers and two-win Buccaneers.
The team has committed 14 turnovers in the last four games and forced one. A minus-13 turnover ratio is difficult to achieve in a season, let alone four games. Stafford has eight interceptions in the last four games after throwing four in the first seven games.
Remember four weeks ago when Rodgers went down and the Lions were granted the division by so many? They had the easiest remaining schedule in the league with plenty of home games. Instead of taking the division by the horns, the Lions went 1-2 against the Bears, Steelers and Bucs.
The pass defense is hemorrhaging yardage, the offense is allergic to possessing the football and teams with lesser talent are out-scheming the Lions. Calvin Johnson goes long stretches without touching the ball and Reggie Bush has been stifled the last several weeks. Most troubling is Matthew Stafford has regressed mightily over the last several games despite great pass protection from his line.
I have supported this coaching staff every step of the way since they inherited the 0-16 mess. Most NFL teams look at a three year timeline for a rebuilding project. This was not a normal rebuilding project. Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand have returned structure to the front office and Mayhew acquired talent for the locker room. Unfortunately, this team continues to be a wreck on the field.
They are among the league leaders in penalties almost every year, they have a terrible record in close games and they have been plagued with turnovers and mistakes. Those are the hallmarks of teams that don't pay attention to details and that falls on the coaching staff.
More troubling than the turnovers is the regression of Matthew Stafford over the last five games. Stafford is throwing the ball more with 45.2 attempts per game as opposed to 39.8 in the first six. He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, more than the 7.4 he averaged in the first six games. His average passing yards per game have increased with the extra attempts up to 344.6 from 295.3 and touchdowns per game are up from 2.0 to 2.4 as well. Despite the increase in attempts per game, Stafford is actually averaging fewer completions per game 24.8, down from 25.0. As a result, his completion percentage has dropped 7.9% to 54.9% and his interceptions per game figure has jumped from 0.7 to 1.6.
Now, I've heard a lot of talk about the number of drops by the receiving corps, and the Lions do lead the league in that category. However, as I alluded to last week, I actually feel like the drops are more on Stafford than the receivers.
Stafford has one of the best arms in the league and he's not afraid to uncork a fastball and try to squeeze throws in. That's great from time to time, but you can't throw every pass 100 m.p.h. and expect the receivers to hang on, especially on the shorter passes. This also explains the high number of overthrows on deep passes that we've seen the last few weeks.
Stafford doesn't throw his deep passes with a lot of arch; he throws line drives which don't give the receivers time to run underneath the pass. He has overthrown four likely touchdowns in the last two games and really has not been an effective downfield passer all season. On passes of over 20 yards, Stafford has completed 17 of 59 passes for 556 yards. He has six touchdowns and five interceptions on those passes and a completion percentage of 37.3% despite having Calvin Johnson. That completion percentage is 26th out of 36 quarterbacks that have 16 or more attempts of over 20 yards. He is sandwiched between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Freeman. Stafford simply should be further along in his development as passer and the coaching staff bears a fair amount of responsibility for that.
One of the most upsetting issues this team has had has been the inability to handle success, which is absurd since "success" in this case was a 6-3 record. How on Earth does a team that hasn't won a playoff game in 22 years even get a mentality of arrival? Reggie Bush was quoted after the game as saying this team didn't have the right mentality on the field. Nate Burleson said the players were losing focus during the game. Does that sound like something that should happen on a team that just got upset by a bad team last week?
The Lions handled the "success" of getting blown out in the first round of the 2011 playoffs by having over half a dozen arrests in the offseason and stumbling to a 1-3 start. They got back into the playoff hunt by drawing even at 4-4 and then lost their next eight games. Stupid mistakes, turnovers and penalties suffocated any lead they could achieve and they blew game after game. Sound familiar?
I am not a person that is in favor of rash decisions, especially when it comes to the livelihood of coaches, but this staff needs to be on the hot seat if they are not already. There comes a point when the team needs to show an appreciable amount of progress and the Lions just haven't done that on a consistent basis.
Don't think this is an overreaction to a bad two game stretch, because these issues have been around a lot longer than the last two games. They are what submarined last season and the second half of 2011 as well. I like Jim Schwartz and I really felt he was the right hire back in 2009. He is smart, he has a diverse football background in both scouting and coaching and he worked for two of the most successful coaches of this generation in Bill Belichick and Jeff Fisher. However, the team continues to have issues with sloppy play, untimely mistakes and undisciplined players. Eventually, that has to fall on the coach.
There is a lot of football left this season and the Lions control their destiny. They were perfectly set up with the Bears' collapse, Rodgers' injury and a soft schedule to be in the running for home-field advantage or a first-round bye. They flushed that opportunity down the tubes, but the division and the third seed is still there for the taking. A win Thursday puts them in the driver's seat, but a loss will basically be a death knell for this season.
They would be a half game behind the Packers and they would lose any tie with them (which would be unlikely unless the Lions have a game end in a tie as well.) The mental toll of dropping three straight and losing the division lead would be bad enough, but having to chase the Packers with a potentially healthy Rodgers would not be easy. The Lions are on the outside looking in for a wild card spot right now, so it's division crown or bust.
This 2013 season started with a lot of promise and still has a fair amount of it left, but the Lions' ship is taking on water. If they finish strong and hit the playoffs on a hot streak, this two game streak will be a distant memory. If they limp into the playoffs and get bounced in the first round, like 2011, I think the front office needs to take a hard look at moving on. If they miss the playoffs, I just don't see how they can bring this staff back. For the last 11 months I have preached patience to fans and told them that talk of Schwartz on the hot seat was premature. He deserved a chance to correct the mistakes of the past and if and when those mistakes weren't corrected, then start the discussions. Sadly, for everybody involved, it seems that the time has come to question if Schwartz is the answer. Let's hope he is.