Brexit Is Teaching Britain A Lesson In Humility; Boris Johnson finalizes EU Exit Deal!

[FAH1223]

very sad

 

[merklman]

Corbyn back to the back benches

I guess a leadership election happens next year?

He'll win a leadership election again easy

 

[mitter]

He'll win a leadership election again easy

No.

First of all, I think he will step down. He's old and has had enough of all the bullshyt he has had to deal with.

Second, even if he did try to stand again, I think he would lose. Losing two general elections in a row is not a good look, and even die-hard leftists will want to explore other ways forward with other candidates.

 

[FAH1223]

No.

First of all, I think he will step down. He's old and has had enough of all the bullshyt he has had to deal with.

Second, even if he did try to stand again, I think he would lose. Losing two general elections in a row is not a good look, and even die-hard leftists will want to explore other ways forward with other candidates.

How can Labour win the next GE though?

Miliband was polling closer in 2014-15 and then it was a disaster.

Obviously 2010 saw the defeat of New Labour.

What’s stopping the British crack media from destroying the next Labour leader?

 

[mitter]

How can Labour win the next GE though?

Miliband was polling closer in 2014-15 and then it was a disaster.

Obviously 2010 saw the defeat of New Labour.

What’s stopping the British crack media from destroying the next Labour leader?

One way Labour can win is by selling out. That's one way to reduce the level of smearing. Look at Tony Blair's relationship with Rupert Murdoch.

Now, I'm no fan of New Labour, and I don't see much of a point in having a Labour government that is Labour in name only and governs as Conservatives.


So what does that leave? I honestly think that in today's climate of disinformation and propaganda, a non-sellout Labour candidate could only get elected if there was some sort of catastrophe and things got really bad. Something like the 2008 financial crisis (and it would have to happen under the watch of the Tories).


To this day, for example, I think that if it wasn't for the 2008 financial meltdown, Obama would have lost to McCain






But I agree with your general point. People who act like replacing Corbyn with anyone else to the left of Blairites would have made a difference are kidding themselves. They would have gotten destroyed by the media as well, as you pointed out.

 

[FAH1223]

One way Labour can win is by selling out. That's one way to reduce the level of smearing. Look at Tony Blair's relationship with Rupert Murdoch.

Now, I'm no fan of New Labour, and I don't see much of a point in having a Labour government that is Labour in name only and governs as Conservatives.


So what does that leave? I honestly think that in today's climate of disinformation and propaganda, a non-sellout Labour candidate could only get elected if there was some sort of catastrophe and things got really bad. Something like the 2008 financial crisis (and it would have to happen under the watch of the Tories).


To this day, for example, I think that if it wasn't for the 2008 financial meltdown, Obama would have lost to McCain






But I agree with your general point. People who act like replacing Corbyn with anyone else to the left of Blairites would have made a difference are kidding themselves. They would have gotten destroyed by the media as well, as you pointed out.

The good thing is their digital media and stuff is pretty good. And Corbyn understands meme culture.

 

[thatrapsfan]

I don't understand why people in the UK are so content to throw away their votes for a third party that, in a perfect world, can only win a few dozen seats.

Compare that to the US where third parties struggle to get 2% of the vote and are STILL constantly blamed for handing certain people the presidency.



Anyway, this chart illustrates the big problem Labour faces:

-Leave voters prioritize leave over everything. They might find Boris disgusting, but will vote for him to get Brexit.

-Remain voters would rather leave than have a socialist prime minister. They'd rather leave with Boris than remain with Jeremy.


Outside of a small handful of seats, any remainer who prioritizes remaining over everything else should vote Labour

This is fascinating because in Canada the perennial third party is the most left wing one, and their voters always go bezerk at any suggestions that people should vote for the party most likely to form government ( the Liberal party in Canad)

 

[FAH1223]

This is fascinating because in Canada the perennial third party is the most left wing one, and their voters always go bezerk at any suggestions that people should vote for the party most likely to form government ( the Liberal party in Canad)

what are your predictions?

Or is too chaotic to predict like 2017?

 

[FAH1223]

 

[88m3]

The Hill
38 mins ·
#FridgeGate began trending on Twitter in the United Kingdom after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was accused of escaping into a freezer in order to avoid an interview with Piers Morgan on "Good Morning Britain" ahead of the country's elections.

“It’s a very frosty reception we’ve had so far,” a "Good Morning Britain" reporter quipped.

Johnson's Conservative Party is expected to retain a majority in the elections.

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'Fridgegate' trends in UK after Boris Johnson accused of hiding in freezer to avoid Piers Morgan interview

 

[Sensitive Christian Grey]

fukk the BBC

 

[FAH1223]

 

[mitter]

That gives me hope that it could indeed be more like a 2-3 point gap.

I'm counting on polls to underestimate the proportion of new/young voters, the impact of tactical voting, and voters who decide late that they just can't give a scumbag like Boris a mandate. Those factors can't overcome a 10 point gap, but they could trim a 5 point gap to 2-3.

IF Labour can get within 2-3 points, then it really depends on the distribution of votes. If they are lucky, it might be enough to deny the Tories a majority. And then, who knows ...

 

[FAH1223]

That gives me hope that it could indeed be more like a 2-3 point gap.

I'm counting on polls to underestimate the proportion of new/young voters, the impact of tactical voting, and voters who decide late that they just can't give a scumbag like Boris a mandate. Those factors can't overcome a 10 point gap, but they could trim a 5 point gap to 2-3.

IF Labour can get within 2-3 points, then it really depends on the distribution of votes. If they are lucky, it might be enough to deny the Tories a majority. And then, who knows ...

Elections Map guy got the EU elections right

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]