Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
Do companies even report GAAP earnings now? All I hear is these companies talk about is non-GAAP.
Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion
Do companies even report GAAP earnings now? All I hear is these companies talk about is non-GAAP.
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
You would think low oil would help these companies more, wouldn't you? I don't get it.
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
It'll likely help the economy in the long run. Looks like they were investing in each other a lot. You would think shipping would be A LOT cheaper. I knew it was coming, but not a crash this early in the year. I do see a crash coming. Japan lost over 6% at it's worst yesterday, and we flirted with a weird stick save.
IEA saying we have a heavy oil glut imminent if OPEC keeps producing. I think they will to run Iran out. Banks look on distress mode. Only save we have is whatever Yellen says tomorrow.
I don't know how to play it. Indications say we have a sharp bounce, but the environment is crash if she says any of the wrong shyt. Got killed hard last month, paying a weekly oil bounce option.
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
Nvrmind. Week looks really rough. Only thing that can save it is a biotech bounce. Tesla's already down 4% premarket. Gotta see if Apple can resist again. Spy 168 may come quicker than 185 did.
mastermind
Rest In Power Kobe
whats going on with Deutsche Bank? 
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
Likely another cascading failed derivatives play. Germany has a strong economy. Lots of contagion around them, but seriously, they CANNOT fail. Would start a chain reaction that would destroy the EU, and then US economically. May be one of the reasons Britain wants out. Global recession, and maybe depression imminent.whats going on with Deutsche Bank?
Nothing has changed since 2008, as far as bank regulation.
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
UBS freezes salaries in investment bank -sources | Reuters
UBS Freezes Pay Amid Market Turbulence
Key points:
"UBS is far from alone as investment banks in Europe retrench and cut costs in the face of competition from U.S. rivals and a protracted market rout that has seen European lenders lose nearly a quarter of their value this year, wiping out over $240 billion in market capitalisation."
"Market volatility, however, has shown that few banks are immune when tumultuous times prompt rich clients to retreat to the sidelines.
The pay freeze at UBS applies to all investment banking staff, including those who have been promoted recently, and will be reviewed in the second quarter, depending on the market environment and pay across the industry, the sources told Reuters speaking on condition of anonymity."
Banks have lost over 25 percent in less than 40 days in Europe. I've seen Bank of America lose 46% in the same period. Something is really going wrong here. Oil has been getting wrecked, but people didn't really spend too much money XMas, looking like they're saving for a rainy day too, considering all of the volatility of last year, with China leading it.
Global economy looks like it's on a crash test. Brazil, one of the main BRIC countries, already considered to be in a depression. Asia feeling the contagion hard, even as they're getting sweet oil deals now from the Saudi's. No word from this in the mainstream press, just about the markets mostly.
I wouldn't say this is a good time for a buy and hold strategy, just because we've had a decent correction. The charts say we do have a rounding top, built multi year, which leads to a multi-year bear market. Hard to call though, as Bernanke and Yellen have surprised before. Britain's seriously discussing NIRP policies, while we're figuring put how to handle our rate hike. If Yellen alludes to more hikes to come tomorrow (hawkish), it could really get real.
UBS Freezes Pay Amid Market Turbulence
Key points:
"UBS is far from alone as investment banks in Europe retrench and cut costs in the face of competition from U.S. rivals and a protracted market rout that has seen European lenders lose nearly a quarter of their value this year, wiping out over $240 billion in market capitalisation."
"Market volatility, however, has shown that few banks are immune when tumultuous times prompt rich clients to retreat to the sidelines.
The pay freeze at UBS applies to all investment banking staff, including those who have been promoted recently, and will be reviewed in the second quarter, depending on the market environment and pay across the industry, the sources told Reuters speaking on condition of anonymity."
Banks have lost over 25 percent in less than 40 days in Europe. I've seen Bank of America lose 46% in the same period. Something is really going wrong here. Oil has been getting wrecked, but people didn't really spend too much money XMas, looking like they're saving for a rainy day too, considering all of the volatility of last year, with China leading it.
Global economy looks like it's on a crash test. Brazil, one of the main BRIC countries, already considered to be in a depression. Asia feeling the contagion hard, even as they're getting sweet oil deals now from the Saudi's. No word from this in the mainstream press, just about the markets mostly.
I wouldn't say this is a good time for a buy and hold strategy, just because we've had a decent correction. The charts say we do have a rounding top, built multi year, which leads to a multi-year bear market. Hard to call though, as Bernanke and Yellen have surprised before. Britain's seriously discussing NIRP policies, while we're figuring put how to handle our rate hike. If Yellen alludes to more hikes to come tomorrow (hawkish), it could really get real.
Futuristic Eskimo
All Star
Couldnt be further from the truth in the US. Banks have unquestionably stronger balance sheets and risk management practices in place these days.
European banks, though
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
Disney reporting today. Going to see how many ESPN subscribers they're losing.
McTwerk
Dreams and Nightmares
Said fukk it and got myself some position on UA. At 71.50, I think it was a good entry point. Got Steph to ride into the playoffs and golf season starting. I think they are setup nicely. Only had enough for a ten piece, but gotta start somewhere right.
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
CDS on Deutsche has exploded the last couple days. People really questioning how solvent they are.
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
Stronger balance sheets because of Operation Twist and 3 QE'S right? Yeah, the big banks were put through a couple of stress test, but they are pretty much still self regulating. If a big bank fails, anywhere, I don't think the stress tests have taken the resulting CDS payouts/debits into full account. Let Deutsche Bank fail, and we'll get the test of that self-regulation.Couldnt be further from the truth in the US. Banks have unquestionably stronger balance sheets and risk management practices in place these days.
European banks, though
European banks are actually more government regulated that ours, far more. They're supposed to have safe guards, but we're talking over 200 trillion dollars in derivative/CDS bets flowing through the global systems. They're also very close to Japan and China in contagion effect.
Futuristic Eskimo
All Star
Stronger balance sheets because they've been exiting high risk businesses en masse for the past 5 years and shoring up their capital position. Banks were mostly intermediaries in QE between their clients and the Fed, with these transactions only flowing through banks' balance sheets, so I would hesitate to call that a main driver.
There's a reason there is a noticeable lack of liquidity across assets classes these days. No one is making markets anymore and banks have shed their risky prop trading groups. European banks might be regulated more, but they are woefully overcapitalized compared with their american peers.
It bothers me when people keep mentioning the notional size of the derivative market
A bank can have trillions in derivative exposure and be perfectly market neutral (without taking into account counterparty default scenarios).MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
True, but all you're setting up is multiple lines of dominoes flowing through and from the biggest banks. If one fails, because of being market neutral means you gamble on one failing, while countering with one doing well, constantly; then the contagion flows in far more directions and smaller banks can't deleverage that quickly. When they do, they fail more banks and those failures go to a bigger bank quicker.Stronger balance sheets because they've been exiting high risk businesses en masse for the past 5 years and shoring up their capital position. Banks were mostly intermediaries in QE between their clients and the Fed, with these transactions only flowing through banks' balance sheets, so I would hesitate to call that a main driver.
There's a reason there is a noticeable lack of liquidity across assets classes these days. No one is making markets anymore and banks have shed their risky prop trading groups. European banks might be regulated more, but they are woefully overcapitalized compared with their american peers.
It bothers me when people keep mentioning the notional size of the derivative market
We've seen how this played out before in 2008, and set up the exact same scenario, hoping banks have learned their lesson this time. 8 years is a long time to cook, and forger things, when you're risky, leveraged, self regulating, salary frozen bit still get bonuses on risky ventures, and profiting both ways. We'll see.