Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

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I know there are benefits to cheap oil... but I wonder if the collapse in prices will be the thing that marks the top to the market's relentless ascent and starts a turbulent ride down.
 
heisenburrr

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Brady Hoke's Artery said:
I know there are benefits to cheap oil... but I wonder if the collapse in prices will be the thing that marks the top to the market's relentless ascent and starts a turbulent ride down.
Click to expand...

Winter is coming

20141008_k1_0.jpg
 
heisenburrr

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Brady Hoke's Artery said:
I know there are benefits to cheap oil... but I wonder if the collapse in prices will be the thing that marks the top to the market's relentless ascent and starts a turbulent ride down.
Click to expand...

About 1/3rd of the S&P500 capex is done by the energy sector. Based on analysis by Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood: “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programs. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120. The 4th quartile, where most US E&Ps cluster, needs $130 or more.
Click to expand...

US Oil industry leveraged like never before.

Demand not going up anytime soon.

Yep, this could get ugly
 
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heisenburrr

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All things being equal, lower oil prices tend to increase economic activity and may help Europe and Asia avoid a recession by lowering energy costs significantly. But all things may not be equal since at least one analyst believes the current rout in the oil markets could lead to cascading defaults that start with the junk bond debt of oil drillers and move through banks heavily invested in oil company debt. That, in turn, could cause a general stock market collapse. Thus, instead of promoting economic growth, low oil prices would be the cause of the next stock market crash and the next worldwide recession.
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http://resourceinsights.blogspot.ca/2014/11/turnabout-opec-shows-us-oil-producers.html
 
Futuristic Eskimo

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China stockpiling a strategic reserve might stabilize the situation but sentiment is weak as hell. Still thinking it's oversold but that means nothing short term.
 
heisenburrr

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Futuristic Eskimo said:
China stockpiling a strategic reserve might stabilize the situation but sentiment is weak as hell. Still thinking it's oversold but that means nothing short term.
Click to expand...

China's manufacturing sector is shot, they are not in a position to stock reserves
 
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Snoopy Loops

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What do y'all think of the LendingClub IPO?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- LendingClub said Monday it is planning to offer 50 million shares in its initial public offering, while selling stockholders will offer another 7.7 million shares. In a regulatory filing, the San Francisco-based peer-to-peer lending platform said it expects the deal to price at $10 to $12 per share to raise $512.3 million at the midpoint of that range. The company will use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including working capital, capex and operating expenses. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Citigroup are lead underwriters on the deal. The company is planning to list its share on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "LC". LendingClub facilitated $6.2 billion of loans in 2014, up from $3.2 billion in 2013, according to the filing.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lendingclub-to-price-ipo-at-10-to-12-per-share-2014-12-01
 
Snoopy Loops

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Domingo Halliburton said:
I usually don't touch IPOs I'll be interested to see what happens with this though. I'm not sure I understand the business model. It's like Peer-to-peer lending isn't it?
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Lending Club

Lending Club



Yeah, from their how it works page

Innovation transforms lending
Lending Club is the world's leading online credit marketplace, where investors back credit worthy borrowers in exchange for interest income. 3

Here's how it works:

  • Customers interested in a loan complete a simple application at LendingClub.com
  • Lending Club evaluates the information (with no impact to the applicant's credit score), determines an interest rate and instantly presents a variety of offers to qualified borrowers
  • Investors ranging from individuals to institutions select loans in which to invest and can earn monthly returns
The entire process is online, using technology to lower the cost of credit and pass the savings back in the form of lower rates for borrowers and solid returns for investors.
Click to expand...

https://www.lendingclub.com/public/how-peer-lending-works.action
 
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