dora_da_destroyer
Master Baker
Got a small play on this edtech platform KHOTF, shyt is up 40% in less than a month 
Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion
25YOUTHS!!
Superstar
They're not really comparable imo and SQ is my only fintech exposure long term. I don't see myself trading it for NFLX
How far into the future are you thinking? I don't see netflix growing at the same pace long term, especially as the competition continues to grow
dora_da_destroyer
Master Baker
weird to see what started as some random west coast weed connect app get shine like this. weedmaps and eaze changed the weed buying game. i feel so old when i think of growing up buying weed off the street, dudes i was talking to or my brother
if it's a longterm hold, short term sideways movement shouldn't be an issueBought more SQ. It better break out of this sideways trading if it wants to stay in my top longterm holds
use it to buy more
dora_da_destroyer
Master Baker
oh, that's a good bet too, but they didn't get beat down like BA - i bought BA during the dip last year because it was tooo damn cheap, no way it was gonna stay under $100. can't go wrong with either 3 or HON, just a matter of waiting.
You don't think LMND drops more.
I want it closer to 100, before i pull the trigger. Please send me some bad news. So people can sell and I can
it probably will, but i ain't gonna try to time the market. even with more shares my avg is $61
i'll simply buy more if the downtrend continues. i might have to sell some profits to do it.
10 Investing Lessons from 2020 – Of Dollars And Data
10 Investing Lessons from 2020
Posted January 19, 2021 by Nick Maggiulli
While many of us want to leave 2020 in the past (myself included), it was a year filled with investing lessons that will benefit us for decades to come. Below I have compiled a list of 10 such lessons that you can use to be a better investor in 2021 and beyond. Enjoy!
1. Prices can always go lower
Even when things seem like they can’t get any worse, sometimes they do. Energy traders discovered this truth the hard way when spot oil prices went negative for the first time ever:
I don’t think I ever remember FinTwit being more shocked by a single event. The lesson here is simple: even when you think the bottom is in, prices can always go lower. Sometimes you have to expect the unexpected.
2. The bigger decline, the bigger the potential recovery
If equity markets demonstrated anything this year it was that large price declines have the potential for even larger recoveries. Why? It’s simple math. If a 20% drop in prices requires a 25% recovery to get back to even, then a 33% drop in prices requires a 50% recovery to get back to even, and so forth:
And since 2020 witnessed a 33% decline in the S&P 500 (from peak to trough), this means that the unexpectedly quick recovery was even better for those that got in near the bottom in late March. While no one could have predicted that such a recovery would follow, the fact that a recovery did follow meant huge gains for those who stayed the course.
3. Volatility is alive and well
In case you forgot about volatility, 2020 was your wake up call. Looking at daily Dow returns going back to 1929, this year was one for the record books:
In addition to having two daily declines greater than 10%, March 2020 was also the most volatile month in stock market history. This year was a reminder that the excess expected return of stocks over bonds sometimes comes with a cost.
4. Price is what someone else is willing to pay for something
2020 saw Bitcoin re-reach $20,000 a coin, Tesla exceed $600 Billion in market capitalization, and oil drop below $0 a barrel. While none of these prices may make sense to some investors, they made sense to the person who bought them.
As long as markets exist, assets will always be priced based on what someone else is willing to pay for them. This has never been more evident than the recent rise in valuations among non-profitable tech companies. But as long as enough buyers are willing to pay such elevated prices, they will continue.
While such an occurrence may seem like an easy short opportunity, it is anything but. As the famous phrase goes:
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Try to keep this in mind when investors look like they are losing theirs.
5. Bitcoin doesn’t behave like a safe haven
Despite what Bitcoin evangelists may have claimed in years prior, 2020 definitively proved that Bitcoin doesn’t perform well in chaotic markets. Like many other risk assets, Bitcoin’s price declined rapidly in March 2020:
And while I agree that Bitcoin generally has a lower correlation with other risk assets during good times, this isn’t necessarily true when there is blood in the streets. When the world was in peril, Bitcoin showed its true colors.
And though I have changed my mind about some things related to Bitcoin, it’s proper classification as a risk asset is not one of them.
6. Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat
With the many eye-popping valuations of various technology IPOs in 2020, it can feel a bit reminiscent of 1999. And while stock prices might be high, 2020 is no 1999. Just take a look at the growth in the NASDAQ from 1995-1999 compared to 2016-2020 and you will see that it’s night and day:
This chart illustrates that there is a big difference between “bubble” and “BUBBLE.” As my colleague Michael Batnick recently argued:
I don’t think the stock market is in a bubble, but it’s surrounded by them.
Though we aren’t in 1999, some investors definitely are. Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat.
7. Robinhood traders had limited impact on the stock market
While many news headlines in 2020 insisted that traders on Robinhood were sending aggregate stock prices higher, there is little evidence for this claim. Most of the effect of Robinhood trading activity seems to be limited to individual stocks, particularly those that are smaller and have less trading volume. We can see this by examining the least to most correlated stocks based on Robinhood trading activity:
Those stocks with the highest correlation among Robinhood users were also some of the smaller, less liquid stocks of 2020. The biggest stocks saw little to no price impact based on how Robinhood users were trading. So while it is tempting to give Robinhood users all the credit for soaring stocks, the data suggests otherwise.
8. Markets aren’t always efficient
While most markets are efficient most of the time, it is entertaining to see when they act up. The best example of this from 2020 occurred when Zoom Technologies (“ZOOM”) saw its price increase by 1,800% from the beginning of the year through mid-March. The only problem? That’s not the right Zoom!
Zoom Video Communications, maker of the popular video conferencing software, trades under the ticker “ZM” not “ZOOM”:
Trading was halted for the incorrect Zoom once regulators realized what was going on. Since the halt, Zoom Technologies now trades under “ZTNO” and its price is now down over 25% from the beginning of 2020. Markets are usually efficient, but when they aren’t it can be quite the story.
9. Sometimes none of the rules apply
Though we would like to believe there is always a playbook to follow in markets, sometimes none of the rules apply. All the wit and wisdom in the world won’t always prepare you for what comes next. This is why the term “unprecedented” became the word of 2020:
So the next time you are in uncharted territory, be calm, relax, and remember that this too shall pass.
10. Nobody knows nothing
If 2020 taught me anything, it was what the late Jack Bogle was fond of saying, “Nobody knows nothing.” Of course, predicting the future is always hard, but 2020 illustrated to us just how difficult it can be. If you would’ve told me that U.S. stocks would rise over 10% in the same year as a global pandemic, I wouldn’t have believed you. But that’s what makes markets so complex and mystifying, especially in 2020, a year unlike any other.
I hope you enjoyed this list and can put it to good use in the future. Happy investing and thank you for reading!
Posted January 19, 2021 by Nick Maggiulli
While many of us want to leave 2020 in the past (myself included), it was a year filled with investing lessons that will benefit us for decades to come. Below I have compiled a list of 10 such lessons that you can use to be a better investor in 2021 and beyond. Enjoy!
1. Prices can always go lower
Even when things seem like they can’t get any worse, sometimes they do. Energy traders discovered this truth the hard way when spot oil prices went negative for the first time ever:
I don’t think I ever remember FinTwit being more shocked by a single event. The lesson here is simple: even when you think the bottom is in, prices can always go lower. Sometimes you have to expect the unexpected.
2. The bigger decline, the bigger the potential recovery
If equity markets demonstrated anything this year it was that large price declines have the potential for even larger recoveries. Why? It’s simple math. If a 20% drop in prices requires a 25% recovery to get back to even, then a 33% drop in prices requires a 50% recovery to get back to even, and so forth:
And since 2020 witnessed a 33% decline in the S&P 500 (from peak to trough), this means that the unexpectedly quick recovery was even better for those that got in near the bottom in late March. While no one could have predicted that such a recovery would follow, the fact that a recovery did follow meant huge gains for those who stayed the course.
3. Volatility is alive and well
In case you forgot about volatility, 2020 was your wake up call. Looking at daily Dow returns going back to 1929, this year was one for the record books:
In addition to having two daily declines greater than 10%, March 2020 was also the most volatile month in stock market history. This year was a reminder that the excess expected return of stocks over bonds sometimes comes with a cost.
4. Price is what someone else is willing to pay for something
2020 saw Bitcoin re-reach $20,000 a coin, Tesla exceed $600 Billion in market capitalization, and oil drop below $0 a barrel. While none of these prices may make sense to some investors, they made sense to the person who bought them.
As long as markets exist, assets will always be priced based on what someone else is willing to pay for them. This has never been more evident than the recent rise in valuations among non-profitable tech companies. But as long as enough buyers are willing to pay such elevated prices, they will continue.
While such an occurrence may seem like an easy short opportunity, it is anything but. As the famous phrase goes:
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Try to keep this in mind when investors look like they are losing theirs.
5. Bitcoin doesn’t behave like a safe haven
Despite what Bitcoin evangelists may have claimed in years prior, 2020 definitively proved that Bitcoin doesn’t perform well in chaotic markets. Like many other risk assets, Bitcoin’s price declined rapidly in March 2020:
And while I agree that Bitcoin generally has a lower correlation with other risk assets during good times, this isn’t necessarily true when there is blood in the streets. When the world was in peril, Bitcoin showed its true colors.
And though I have changed my mind about some things related to Bitcoin, it’s proper classification as a risk asset is not one of them.
6. Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat
With the many eye-popping valuations of various technology IPOs in 2020, it can feel a bit reminiscent of 1999. And while stock prices might be high, 2020 is no 1999. Just take a look at the growth in the NASDAQ from 1995-1999 compared to 2016-2020 and you will see that it’s night and day:
This chart illustrates that there is a big difference between “bubble” and “BUBBLE.” As my colleague Michael Batnick recently argued:
I don’t think the stock market is in a bubble, but it’s surrounded by them.
Though we aren’t in 1999, some investors definitely are. Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat.
7. Robinhood traders had limited impact on the stock market
While many news headlines in 2020 insisted that traders on Robinhood were sending aggregate stock prices higher, there is little evidence for this claim. Most of the effect of Robinhood trading activity seems to be limited to individual stocks, particularly those that are smaller and have less trading volume. We can see this by examining the least to most correlated stocks based on Robinhood trading activity:
Those stocks with the highest correlation among Robinhood users were also some of the smaller, less liquid stocks of 2020. The biggest stocks saw little to no price impact based on how Robinhood users were trading. So while it is tempting to give Robinhood users all the credit for soaring stocks, the data suggests otherwise.
8. Markets aren’t always efficient
While most markets are efficient most of the time, it is entertaining to see when they act up. The best example of this from 2020 occurred when Zoom Technologies (“ZOOM”) saw its price increase by 1,800% from the beginning of the year through mid-March. The only problem? That’s not the right Zoom!
Zoom Video Communications, maker of the popular video conferencing software, trades under the ticker “ZM” not “ZOOM”:
Trading was halted for the incorrect Zoom once regulators realized what was going on. Since the halt, Zoom Technologies now trades under “ZTNO” and its price is now down over 25% from the beginning of 2020. Markets are usually efficient, but when they aren’t it can be quite the story.
9. Sometimes none of the rules apply
Though we would like to believe there is always a playbook to follow in markets, sometimes none of the rules apply. All the wit and wisdom in the world won’t always prepare you for what comes next. This is why the term “unprecedented” became the word of 2020:
So the next time you are in uncharted territory, be calm, relax, and remember that this too shall pass.
10. Nobody knows nothing
If 2020 taught me anything, it was what the late Jack Bogle was fond of saying, “Nobody knows nothing.” Of course, predicting the future is always hard, but 2020 illustrated to us just how difficult it can be. If you would’ve told me that U.S. stocks would rise over 10% in the same year as a global pandemic, I wouldn’t have believed you. But that’s what makes markets so complex and mystifying, especially in 2020, a year unlike any other.
I hope you enjoyed this list and can put it to good use in the future. Happy investing and thank you for reading!
I'm just saying what happened to NFLX today. it was trading sideways then boom it popped. long baseline is good. i love stocks that trade sideways. hell tesla traded sideway for 8 years
and i agree with you on NFLX. it's nice. but it ain't SQ nice.
25YOUTHS!!
Superstar
Ya'll have it nice af in Cali.weird to see what started as some random west coast weed connect app get shine like this. weedmaps and eaze changed the weed buying game. i feel so old when i think of growing up buying weed off the street, dudes i was talking to or my brother
if it's a longterm hold, short term sideways movement shouldn't be an issue
Weedmaps is popular even in non-legal states, I live in a non-legal state and use it for "research." They seem to be taking down a lot of the gray area stuff, probably in preparation for the merger. I can't even imagine the potential if there's federal legalization and they can sell and accept payments online.
As for SQ, I been buying the dip the last 2 months
Naw I just got spoiled by the run it had earlier this year.
Watching it stay stagnant while the rest of my portfolio runs up lately
Model X/S refresh rumors (Potentially shared on the earnings call)
Tesla reduced the price of model 3s in Europe (being shipped over form China)
Cybertruck updates pending for the earnings call
4680 battery cell progress updates on the ec as well
FSD beta wider release pending update
Tesla reduced the price of model 3s in Europe (being shipped over form China)
Cybertruck updates pending for the earnings call
4680 battery cell progress updates on the ec as well
FSD beta wider release pending update
Weedmaps has been laundering millions for years. Seems like the Biden administration is gonna look the other way but Barr definitely had an open investigation on it. Just keep an eye out for that
Feels like the stock always sells off after Tesla events even if they drop really good news.
let's stop playing and get to $1000 already
However, given how solid the quarter results will be and updates. Maybe 1k next week
it does. people take profits.
once it gets to $1000 it's a nice psychological number, so it should be the new base.