Lakers Offseason
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One thing for sure, shorts have been getting squeezed out of their minds the past two weeks.
Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
hopefully the new Xbox isnt a wack piece of shyt like most think and this stock pulls ahead
What do you think of the xbox1?
Julius Skrrvin
I be winkin' through the scope
It's crap
It might take off with casuals but the early adopter base is already throwing it in the bushes from what i'm reading. That conference had no exclusive games anyone gives a shyt about. They're pretty much pitching it as an HTPC.... But as a standalone product it does nothing to draw the attention. They spent 30 minutes talking about television and multiplat games and server loads.
Obviously wait till E3 to say more but initial impression is unmemorable crap with a nice UI, IMO the PS4 is the much better buy all around. Accordingly, Sony's stock popped a molly too after this fumble.
Myself? I'll probably stick to Sony and a High end PC like I did last gen....
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
damn breh, people really hate this thing.
KeysT
Playa from the Himalayas #ByrdGang
Anybody up on AMT brehs
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
are they a REIT? just a quick look at their income statements they've had top and bottom line growth for the last few quarters. other than that I don't know much.
Got rid of two holdings (LYV, EVR) at their high yesterdays right before that announcment from the Feds. Got lucky on that one. Looks like the markets are gonna finish the week off with a beat down.
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
What makes you so bearish on FB?
Plenty reasons, one of them being that I feel the company is wrongly being qualified as a growth company. From a financial standpoint yes they are growth oriented so thats fair but I just feel like the product itself, that which drives 70-90% of its revenue is in or maybe even past its maturity phase.
Here was a short analysis I did for the Nigerian a couple weeks back. I actually wanted to buy the options weeks ago right after their earnings release because I felt that Facebook Home would spike the price/revenue a little bit. And I was right, the options have gone up about 30% since the spike. Here is some of my argument though. Even in the respective threads you will see that people at least in North America hate facebook...i just need the corporations to realize.
Thats the only thing that scares me, it has a fukkload of cash that it can use to do some wild shyt. But from an accounting perspective...there is no way the company should be larger than Priceline or Adobe in my opinion.
Everybody in here will agree that the usage of Facebook was at its peak in 2010/2009. The amount of users may have enlargened but thats only because it started allowing preteens and teenagers to join. Do they account for the fake sexy girls profiles that are used to troll people or send viagara advertisements? Do they account for the accounts that are made by teenage mothers for babies who cant even type on a keyboard? How about the accounts made by party promoters and shyt. Furthermore people dont even click the ads! It's a scam. But if they diversify their product offering then i'll be toast. But right now over 90% of revenue is from its advertising.
They spent 1.4B on R&D last year compared to 0.4B in 2011. I'm curious to see just where the hell that R&D actually went though. Adobe spent a total of 1.5B for R&D in the same period. Only difference is that where Adobe spends this money developing or creating new business lines; facebook spends this money finding new ways to add to its current one (ie: FB Home being a new avenue for advertisements). All anything like that is gonna do is annoy users further. Who really wants to slide their phone and have advertisements on their home screen??Who wants to see a girl posing in front of a mirror or eating a desert on their homescreen? The ratings are even an avg of 2.2/5 stars on Google Play. Only the beginning but I just dont see how it can really catch on.
Priceline doesnt even invest in R&D and its margin is still increasing every year. This is a company I remember my dad telling me about when the Internet first became mainstream, 10 years of organic growth after looking the dotcom bubble in the eye.
I might be a hater but I dunno...Facebook is just a gimmick to me. Even if they acquire Twitter. How long can Twitter and Instagram really last?
@The Nigerian...doing this for practice before I hit the mall with my nikka and as a basis for a pitch I'm gonna make to an I-Banker.
Peep this info and feel free to rebut.
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There arent any mature, large, public social networks to compare to so Ill compare to MATURE public tech companies that deal with revenue from online and mobile apps as well as services they provide (mainly advertising). Lets compare to Google, Priceline, EBay and Amazon for the fukk of it. Large cap companies all within the same stratosphere as Facebook.
Price to Sales ratios:
PCLN ($37B Market Cap) - 6.7
GOOG ($280B Market Cap) – 5.1
AMZN ($117B Market Cap)- 1.8
EBAY ($70B Market Cap)– 4.8
FB ($67B Market Cap)– 12.5
To give a better picture that relates to Cash and Debt…lets use enterprise value. (Higher cash than debt…less EV)
Enterprise value is essentially what it would cost to by the company...Market Cap + Debt - Cash (You can use the cash you bought to pay off debt)
Enterprise Value to Sales
PCLN – 5.9
GOOG – 4.2
EBAY – 4,3
AMZN – 1.7
FB – 11.5
I wont even bring EBITDA into this because then it’ll really get ugly.
FB has a ratio of 12.5 and 11.3 respectively only because it is still in its growth phase. For this current valuation of $67B to be correct...this means the markets expect facebook to double its revenue. This is considering the average in this little table without Facebook (and Amazon which is much lower for whatever reason) is about 5.5 for both metrics. 90% of this companies revenue is from advertising…what incentive is there for corporations/companies to increase their damn advertising in facebook when the usage of the actual website is declining behind the scenes? That is why I said the only way this valuation can be correct is if the company starts using its cash for acquisitions or if it creates whole new business lines so it isn’t so dependent on advertising.
Now lets get into the price to Earnings ratio (trailing 12 months)…because what good is a company’s sales if none of the earnings are being retained for shareholders, or invested into the company (and I don’t mean invested into bullshyt innovations like FB home)??
FB – 577
GOOG – 25
EBAY - 26
PCLN – 26
(All figures are rounded…and they just so happen to all converge to 26 making my job easier
So get this. Not only do investors expect Facebook to double its revenue to $11B by year end 2015…but they expect to company to improve its operating efficiency and thereby only increase its expenses (currently at $5.3B…$3.9B without R&D) to about $8.2B. Because that would then create a net income of $2.8B (which creates a 25 P/E ratio when compared to Facebooks current market capitalization.). 100% revenue increase and 60% expense increase. Doable but not if they're gonna be working in them labs like you said. There is no way that this is happening for a company that is pretty much a fad at this point, a fad that is going to require extensive R&D expenses to branch out and grow its business beyond advertising.
I can continue going further but you have no clue about any of this so I wont bother. But tell me, how is Facebook gonna meet these expectations by 2015 because you know so much.
FB Analyst Estimates | Facebook, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
Just so you know I aint talking out of my ass with them numbers...peep that yahoo link. The market pretty much expects 25% increases over each of the next 3 years which which would eventually amount to 100% times last years revenue in 2015. (1.25^3 = 1.95)
NOTE: Since I made that post, AT&T has dropped the HTC First (Facebook Home phone) from its line, and the United Kingdom has halted its launch. The writing is on the wall brehs. Facebook hasnt demonstrated that they can use their cash well until they bring in new, educated, battle tested management I have no reason to believe that Zuckerberg will turn a new leaf. Insiders stay selling shares too.
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If I had a margin account I would no doubt short Facebook with about 15K worth of shares, or I would go long on puts with some shares to cover. Them January 2015 puts (Strikes of 15 to 18) will be copped soon enough as well.
Mwahahhaahahah. I just got in...in time I hope. Hopefully the spiral continues.
@Domingo Halliburton I hope youre seeing this. Facebook will be at 20 a share by September.
The volume is so assuring as well
@Domingo Halliburton I hope youre seeing this. Facebook will be at 20 a share by September.
The volume is so assuring as well
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Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
Mwahahhaahahah. I just got in...in time I hope. Hopefully the spiral continues.
@Domingo Halliburton I hope youre seeing this. Facebook will be at 20 a share by September.
The volume is so assuring as well
yeah i saw it was down. salesforce had some shytty numbers and it's bringing all the tech stocks down. a bunch of calls got bought on FB today as well.
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