3. The stock market is always ahead of the economy. It trades 6 months into the future, sometimes a year. For example, let's look at something like Delta. They don't have to get back to 100% of 2019 passenger levels for their stock to get back near it's high. They have to move in that direction to the point where the forecast would say "at this rate in 6 months" as an example and buyers will be on the stock well before the actual revenue is made.
Right now, more than at any other time, no one knows what will happen 6-12 months down the line. We may not even get a vaccine (
Why we might not get a coronavirus vaccine).
Airlines like Delta are burning cash. They've had to acquire a lot of debt (which comes from future earnings). Their previous stock price was artificially inflated from stock buy backs, which they're no longer allowed to do with their bailout money. In the future it's unlikely air travel will be as much as it was pre-covid (more business meetings being on Zoom, for example, or with the recession deepening, there'll be less disposable income for people to spend on flights). There's a reason Warren Buffett sold his airline stocks at a loss.
The stock market is totally disconnected from reality at this point, and has only bounced back because of the Fed pumping 2.3 trillion dollars into the economy. Meanwhile, unemployment will likely reach 25%. The economy is in the worst shape it's been for a century.
Listen to the what the OGs say: Ray Dalio, Warren Buffett... they're all warning of a Great Depression. Get ready.