Are NBA First Round playoff series the easiest thing to predict in sports?

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Considering a one seed has never lost (NCAA) that's a good one. What if a person were to bet all one seeds in the first round every year? Do you view that as "free money"?

 

[Absolut]

no, because eventually a 16 seed will break through, and if you bet them every year, that one loss you will give back many years of profits

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

I'm not sure I see it unless the game continues to be watered down but someone could be on a hell of a win streak right now

 

[Absolut]

right now yes. ill use the albany/cuse game this year as an example. they were -9000, and barely hung on. when a -9000 loses, as one will eventually, you will lose almost 25 years of profits betting all 4 1 seeds each year

 

[Ed MOTHERFUCKING G]

right now yes. ill use the albany/cuse game this year as an example. they were -9000, and barely hung on. when a -9000 loses, as one will eventually, you will lose almost 25 years of profits betting all 4 1 seeds each year

very well said, and is why when you stretch out time, whatever the measurement

the house always wins

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

It would have to be something fishy. Injury related maybe or a team being overrated by the polls and committee such as a team with a big record out of mid-major. St. Joe's was for real so I won't use them as an example but a team with a 30-1 record out of the A-10 could be a little suspect. Or Something like Kenyon Martin going down heading into the tourney. It will not happen to a team like Kentucky.

 

[Grand Eeezus Maxwell]

Ya know, i havent heard a "The NBA is fixed" take this year....

That's because Stern doesn't love the Lakers anymore

 

[mannyrs13]

I sort of agree wit that. Consider this. Since 1984, teams with home court in first round have won 81% of the time. And teams in top 3 seed have won 96% of the finals. Only Houston had lowest seed at 6. So yeah predicting the first round is quite easy to do. Altho only 4 times have all 8 top seeds advanced first round while 9 times only 5 have advanced. S there are discrepancies, like the bulls losing rose and the cippers-grizzlies being somewhat even matched.

 

[Absolut]

3 of the last 6 years an 8 seed has taken down a 1 (gs over the mavs, grizz over the spurs, sixers over the bulls)

 

[mannyrs13]

yeah you right bout that. the gs and grizz series were more exciting cuz the 1 seed aint lose their best player. i was expecting the spurs to be shook if the grizz woulda beat the clippers.

 

[Majestic Pape]

yeah you right bout that. the gs and grizz series were more exciting cuz the 1 seed aint lose their best player. i was expecting the spurs to be shook if the grizz woulda beat the clippers.

Ginobili didn't play in that Spurs series last year though, at a time when many considered him the Spurs best player. Also, Rudy Gay didn't play in that series, which also would have likely helped the Spurs.

 

[Tom]

how many first round upsets have their been in the history of the NBA?

 

[Rocket Scientist]

yep

 

[Majestic Pape]

how many first round upsets have their been in the history of the NBA?

Depends on what you consider an upset.

Is a 5 beating a 4 an upset? Is a 6 beating a 3 an upset?

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Depends on the year and which conference. West has been consistently deep. There's been a couple years where I would not consider a 6 over a 3 as a big upset.

In the East, there's usually only been 2-3 legitimate teams.