Analysis: Here's Why I Think Kamala Harris Will Win (Not Based On Current Polls)

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

I think you're right that Trump likely hasn't increased his base and he topped out at around 46% of the vote during 2016 and 2020. It's not so much about Trump, it's about Democrats (and independents) getting out to vote. We know the higher the turnout, the likelier it will be that Kamala wins.

In the end, that rings true in the battleground states where the election will be won. Biden didn't win those states overwhelmingly so there is work to do, there's a small margin of error to maintain that exact map.

I think Kamala could very well lose Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. I wouldn't feel great about any of those this time around although early voting data in GA has been solid.

She needs to maintain that northern wall of WI/MI/PA and maybe pick up something else like a NC where Mark Robinson's campaign has no doubt hurt the GOP there and motivated people. Early data out of MI and PA looks decent.

If Kamala wins this it will be because of the gender gap (women being motivated by Roe) and independents/moderates breaking hard for her and people being tired of the Trump act.

 

[boogers]

Justice.


Though Tulsa is conservative as fukk, so I'm pretty sure millions will be spent to hamstring his tenure if he wins.

My ex-wife moved there after we split (Broken Arrow, more specifically) so I'm not too favorable about Tulsa.

broken arrow is wild. trumpland. they seem to have a lot of cac families fond of murdering each other.

seriously, every other month either the oldest son or the dad of the family will lose their minds and murder everyone in the house

Broken Arrow murders - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"It was the deadliest crime and mass murder in the city of Broken Arrow, until a murder-suicide in October 2022 which killed 8 people."

sadly they'll prolly break their own record again soon. probably after november... move to the burbs and murder your entire family for no reason, crehs

 

[AAKing23]

Obama already broke that glass ceiling.

Racism and sexism will play a part in how people vote, no doubt. I'm definitely not saying White people have come that far. But people tend to overlook how deeply unfavorable Trump is.

Most of his voters will be White, but that doesn't mean most Whites will vote for him.

Wrong wrong wrong

 

[Bunchy Carter]

@Jasonmask , @O.Red , @Bunchy Carter , and @tuckgod are all Trump supporters.

You thought they were just spewing #BothSides rhetoric for no reason?




All I'm doing is an analysis of past voting trends from 2016-2022.

I've been clear that everything I've said about 2024 is speculative, but I base my predictions on recent voting trends.

All it takes is an a$$hole district in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania to disprove my theorem.

Early in the morning talking some goofy shyt, your fat ass should be in the gym right now

I'm 5'7" 245 lbs...not in my best shape, but I ain't fat...you used to weight more, breh?

 

[O.Red]

Hit dogs holler

hit dogs???

Nikka you mentioned me

 

[Black Panther]

Early in the morning talking some goofy shyt, your fat ass should be in the gym right now

That's the problem with quoting shyt that's 6+ years old.
Just stepped off the scale this morning and I'm at 216 lbs. Catch up

 

[Uachet]

how many times in your lifetime have you seen life long republicans , former and current republican politicians come out and endorse a democrat? not only that they are actively campaigning for her.

Actually, I remember some Republicans endorsing Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020 who were current and former.

US election 2016: Clinton gathers Republican endorsements

Hillary Clinton receives another endorsement from a leading Republican, as well as the backing of a typically Republican newspaper.

www.bbc.com

US election 2016: Clinton gathers Republican endorsements​

For some Republicans who endorsed Biden in 2020, the next election looks bleak​

I think too many of us have short memories or maybe were not adults in those last 2 elections.

 

[Black Panther]

hit dogs???

Nikka you mentioned me

I hit you up, and here you are hollering.

 

[Uachet]

Hit dogs holler

You are using that phrase incorrectly. The phrase "a hit dog will holler" is when you make a generalized negative statement naming no one, and then someone runs in and defends themself from that statement. That is the hit dog hollering.

What you did was actually call him out by using an @ him, and so he is not giving himself away by refuting your claims.

 

[bnew]

Actually, I remember some Republicans endorsing Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020 who were current and former.





I think too many of us have short memories or maybe were not adults in those last 2 elections.

one sitting senator at the time and a former governor and senator. Harris has current republican officials in office and former trump administration officials endorsing her.

Spoiler: full text & large images

1/11
@NYinLA2121
The military is jumping up and down, waving at us furiously, using the red phone, basically taking us down the Defcon chart, begging us - practically unanimously - not to vote for Adolf Trump.

There have been evil men in world history, but when 4-Star Generals -within two weeks of an election-compare him to the #1 evil man in world history in the last 200+ years, that should make you take fukkin’ notice.

This has never happened before.
They are telling us…

He. Is. Fascist.



2/11
@actatumonline
I don’t think a lot of people understand that for these guys in particular to go on the record like this, shyt is beyond serious.



3/11
@ddbecker5454
Does everyone realize how much courage it took these men to warn voters about Trump?

4/11
@Dixie202021
General are inherently non political. They go out of their way to be non partisan. If a General is warning us we damned well better listen.

5/11
@FraidNotz
I just wish we could hear them speak their words rather than hearing from someone who heard someone else say they heard it.
THEN, we know that what we read is true.



6/11
@RobynEvansinCal
I’ve never seen or heard anything like it. The military had always been nonpartisan until now. /search?q=#VoteBlueAsifYourLivesDependonit



7/11
@TippyTaff
For those fascist-curious, here's an excellent person to explain fascist strongmen. See what you think.

8/11
@ttstrac
What fascist runs a campaign based on deregulating and reducing the size of government?

Serious question



9/11
@ThisWillHold
“But I need to hear more about her policies…”

Make it make sense!



10/11
@tamilynmsimard
The MSM is not covering this.



11/11
@Angelica_Reed1
it's insane how so many people still vote for trump




To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: mirror

Over 100 Ex-GOP Officials Endorse Harris—Here’s The Full List

A number of outspoken Trump critics, including Miles Taylor and Adam Kinzinger, signed the letter.

www.forbes.com

Spoiler: thread continued

Spoiler: full text

1/2
Donald Trump’s former VP won’t endorse him

His Chief of Staff said he’s a fascist

One Defense Secretary called him a “Nazi”

The other said he’s a “threat to democracy”

When so many former Trump officials refuse to vote for him

Why should anyone else

/search?q=#KamalaDeliversJoyToUS

[Quoted tweet]
Fox: Trump’s own staff is coming out and calling Trump an 'authoritarian' and 'fascist.' These were his top generals and senior aides


2/2
The election is less than 2 weeks away

Make sure you are able to vote

And cast your ballot for /search?q=#KamalaHarris

I Will Vote




To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: larger images

 

[O.Red]

You are using that phrase incorrectly. The phrase "a hit dog will holler" is when you make a generalized negative statement naming no one, and then someone runs in and defends themself from that statement. That is the hit dog hollering.

What you did was actually call him out by using an @ him, and so he is not giving himself away by refuting your claims.

I'm gonna rep you out of sympathy because you shouldn't have had to explain that shyt

 

[Thavoiceofthevoiceless]

one sitting senator at the time and a former governor and senator. Harris has current republican officials in office and former trump administration officials endorsing her.

Spoiler: full text & large images

1/11
@NYinLA2121
The military is jumping up and down, waving at us furiously, using the red phone, basically taking us down the Defcon chart, begging us - practically unanimously - not to vote for Adolf Trump.

There have been evil men in world history, but when 4-Star Generals -within two weeks of an election-compare him to the #1 evil man in world history in the last 200+ years, that should make you take fukkin’ notice.

This has never happened before.
They are telling us…

He. Is. Fascist.



2/11
@actatumonline
I don’t think a lot of people understand that for these guys in particular to go on the record like this, shyt is beyond serious.



3/11
@ddbecker5454
Does everyone realize how much courage it took these men to warn voters about Trump?

4/11
@Dixie202021
General are inherently non political. They go out of their way to be non partisan. If a General is warning us we damned well better listen.

5/11
@FraidNotz
I just wish we could hear them speak their words rather than hearing from someone who heard someone else say they heard it.
THEN, we know that what we read is true.



6/11
@RobynEvansinCal
I’ve never seen or heard anything like it. The military had always been nonpartisan until now. /search?q=#VoteBlueAsifYourLivesDependonit



7/11
@TippyTaff
For those fascist-curious, here's an excellent person to explain fascist strongmen. See what you think.

8/11
@ttstrac
What fascist runs a campaign based on deregulating and reducing the size of government?

Serious question



9/11
@ThisWillHold
“But I need to hear more about her policies…”

Make it make sense!



10/11
@tamilynmsimard
The MSM is not covering this.



11/11
@Angelica_Reed1
it's insane how so many people still vote for trump




To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: mirror

Over 100 Ex-GOP Officials Endorse Harris—Here’s The Full List

A number of outspoken Trump critics, including Miles Taylor and Adam Kinzinger, signed the letter.

www.forbes.com

Spoiler: thread continued

Spoiler: full text

1/2
Donald Trump’s former VP won’t endorse him

His Chief of Staff said he’s a fascist

One Defense Secretary called him a “Nazi”

The other said he’s a “threat to democracy”

When so many former Trump officials refuse to vote for him

Why should anyone else

/search?q=#KamalaDeliversJoyToUS

[Quoted tweet]
Fox: Trump’s own staff is coming out and calling Trump an 'authoritarian' and 'fascist.' These were his top generals and senior aides


2/2
The election is less than 2 weeks away

Make sure you are able to vote

And cast your ballot for /search?q=#KamalaHarris

I Will Vote




To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: larger images

Still doesn't change the fact that he corrected your post.

 

[Thavoiceofthevoiceless]

I'm gonna rep you out of sympathy because you shouldn't have had to explain that shyt

I tried telling OP to post this in HL, but he insisted on dap and plat thread fishing to only end up being corrected

 

[Shadow King]

People are emotional and not walking math equations.

 

[the bossman]

I have no clue why the polls show the race tightening. Trump is imploding, every appearance is a disaster, his fans are leaving events early. This all looks like a dying campaign except the numbers.

He even admitted on the Rogan podcast episode his people are flooding the polls with bogus data to make it look like he's doing better than he really is

And also as another talking point to use as evidence of why if he loses then it means the election was stolen again