AMC Theaters’ Credit Takes a Bad Hit; Future in Jeopardy

[Vandelay]

Streaming music services’ share of total music revenues is bigger than ever. According to a year-end report from the RIAA, revenues from streaming services grew nearly 20% in 2019 to $8.8 billion, accounting for 79.5% of all recorded music revenues

Counterpoint believes that global music subscriptions will grow more than 25% in 2020, with numbers exceeding 450 million paid subscribers by the end of the year

I didn't say they didn't generate money.

Apple music, Amazon and Spotify are barely profitable. You can Google all of this.

Apple and Amazon support it to attract users to their platform, and Spotify has turned a profit once in 13 years. All have the luxury of being able to share catalogs. All are known for paying the creators thousandths of a penny per stream, of which the record labels take the lion share of that revenue. Most artists make their money from touring, merchandise, and endorsements. What is the movie industry equivalent; toys?

Also, let's look at Netflix...Netflix is profitable, but...and it's a big BUT...they purchase all of their content with debt. The moment their subscriber base drops they will be in trouble. To offset this, they will have to cut their spending on content in the near future because it is not a sustainable model.

The movie industry has so much overhead and people tend to only watch movies once or twice a comparable service would cost significantly more for the end user. Add in the fact you could have 5-6 or more people share in the movie release for the price of 1 membership/rental.

So 1 of 3 things will happen; the budgets of the productions will go down significantly or the cost of a membership/rental will be too much to attract a significant user base or conglomerates will have to purchase the studios and use it as a barely profitable function of a much bigger company.

My take is, personally I would love to have the option to watch newly released movies in the theater and at home, however I don't think the entire experience of the movie industry does not lend itself well to streaming sustainability.

 

[MartyMcFly]

I didn't say they didn't generate money.

Apple music, Amazon and Spotify are barely profitable. You can Google all of this.

Apple and Amazon support it to attract users to their platform, and Spotify has turned a profit once in 13 years. All have the luxury of being able to share catalogs. All are known for paying the creators thousandths of a penny per stream, of which the record labels take the lion share of that revenue. Most artists make their money from touring, merchandise, and endorsements. What is the movie industry equivalent; toys?

Also, let's look at Netflix...Netflix is profitable, but...and it's a big BUT...they purchase all of their content with debt. The moment their subscriber base drops they will be in trouble. To offset this, they will have to cut their spending on content in the near future because it is not a sustainable model.

The movie industry has so much overhead and people tend to only watch movies once or twice a comparable service would cost significantly more for the end user. Add in the fact you could have 5-6 or more people share in the movie release for the price of 1 membership/rental.

So 1 of 3 things will happen; the budgets of the productions will go down significantly or the cost of a membership/rental will be too much to attract a significant user base or conglomerates will have to purchase the studios and use it as a barely profitable function of a much bigger company.

My take is, personally I would love to have the option to watch newly released movies in the theater and at home, however I don't think the entire experience of the movie industry does not lend itself well to streaming sustainability.

Props to all this. But on your last point, Jeffrey Katzenberg says he sees the future of movies being like the NFL. They don’t blackout channels in order to make sure fans show up to the stadium. Obviously that’s not a completely perfect comparison because of tv rights, the amount of money a football ticket cost, and the sheer insane amount of revenue the NFL gets from their tv deals but I can see where his head is at. Just don’t know how we get there because of all the factors you laid out

 

[Vandelay]

Props to all this. But on your last point, Jeffrey Katzenberg says he sees the future of movies being like the NFL. They don’t blackout channels in order to make sure fans show up to the stadium. Obviously that’s not a completely perfect comparison because of tv rights, the amount of money a football ticket cost, and the sheer insane amount of revenue the NFL gets from their tv deals but I can see where his head is at. Just don’t know how we get there because of all the factors you laid out

But the NFL and networks have advertising revenue to supplement. I just don't see the bridge to get there.

Imagine, in lieu of this crisis if Universal said F* it, let's release Fast Saga to home viewers now. Fast Saga would've made anywhere from 160-200 million first weekend or somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-15 million would've went to theaters to see it. You can't charge viewers $15 per streaming rental and even if you did, 5, 6, 10 people are going to watch it at someone's house and it won't make anywhere near what it forecasted box office sales would've been. You also have to contend with paying the distributors a significant portion of revenue for using their distribution platform.

The only counter argument I see to this is, more people would probably watch it first weekend...but it's possibly going to be a significant shared viewership. So you might have 50 million viewers first weekend, but at a lower price point it will bring in overall lower gross revenue.

Streaming music has the luxury of repeat streams over the course of time to make up for the loss of initial revenue, movies not so much.

EDIT: And using Fast Saga as an example might actually make bank now that I think about it, only because we are social distancing and there would be a lot of individuals streaming. But I think you would have diminishing returns once society returns to normal. It would be an interesting experiment to do.

 

[1thouwow]

Corona gonna get the movie theater industry outta here quicker than the streaming services

 

[MikelArteta]

Yeah I have a feeling once we can all get outside, movie theaters will do well but the money they were counting on for the summer won’t be there. So they’d have to survive long enough to reap some benefits

I’m sure people are itching to be in a room with hundreds of other people

 

[MikelArteta]

Corona gonna get the movie theater industry outta here quicker than the streaming services

Where dem drive thru at

 

[MartyMcFly]

I’m sure people are itching to be in a room with hundreds of other people

If they’re told they can be? Yeah probably. Anything back to normal is a reprieve. Of course some people will be like “yeah nah” but there will also be people who just want to get back to what their lives were and anything they can grab to fill that void will do

 

[hex]

Not too worried about this. I can 99.99% guarantee somebody bails them out. There's too much money to be made.

Fred.

 

[Still FloW]

This sucks cause for certain movies, the cinema experience adds to it. watching Aquaman in IMAX 3D and Endgame were better cause of the experience being around everyone else and being hyped AF

 

[wire28]

If they’re told they can be? Yeah probably. Anything back to normal is a reprieve. Of course some people will be like “yeah nah” but there will also be people who just want to get back to what their lives were and anything they can grab to fill that void will do

yeah some people will go back but it will never return to normal. i think we probably witnessed the peak of the theater experience. its all down hill from here. glad we got to see endgame in theaters before this all happened.

and especially if this comes back as predicted and becomes seasonal like the regular influenza virus. yeah its over

 

[shutterguy]

Inb4 the "look at my home theater" posts

We already have a Post Your Home Entertainment Thread

https://www.thecoli.com/threads/the-official-post-your-entertainment-setup-thread.5047/

 

[CodeBlaMeVi]

I think their lenders will give them a waiver. This is literally a “natural” disaster.

 

[Primetime]

watchin at the crib > watching with some a$$holes talkin, on the phone and who damn sure aint tall as me but somehow still managing to kick my chair intermittently over 2 hours

Bruh... this shyt been pissing me the fukk off last few movies i watched.

Muthafukkas stay turning they phone on and the bright ass light feels like the visual version of a fukkin fly buzzin in your periphery.

Just as bad is habitual talking. I remember i was watching End Game opening weekend on some reserved seats 3D IMax bullshyt and these two mexican mutahfukkas speaking NO english kept on yapping away. The one closest to me stfu when i nudged him and to his credit he tried quieting his dumbass buddy but the dumbass would stop for maybe 5 minutes... then next thing you know he'd start yappin again

30 minutes into the movie i took off my 3d glasses, turned to both of them and was "yo man i'm trying to watch the fukking movie "

That finally did it but it's like cotdamn man, why i gotta be aggressive for it to register to have some fukkin decency?

I can't stand the theater man

 

[MartyMcFly]

Bruh... this shyt been pissing me the fukk off last few movies i watched.

Muthafukkas stay turning they phone on and the bright ass light feels like the visual version of a fukkin fly buzzin in your periphery.

Just as bad is habitual talking. I remember i was watching End Game opening weekend on some reserved seats 3D IMax bullshyt and these two mexican mutahfukkas speaking NO english kept on yapping away. The one closest to me stfu when i nudged him and to his credit he tried quieting his dumbass buddy but the dumbass would stop for maybe 5 minutes... then next thing you know he'd start yappin again

30 minutes into the movie i took off my 3d glasses, turned to both of them and was "yo man i'm trying to watch the fukking movie "

That finally did it but it's like cotdamn man, why i gotta be aggressive for it to register to have some fukkin decency?

I can't stand the theater man

Hotta go to a better theater man. Thats why I love the Alamo. nobody does that shyt and if they do, they're gone with the quickness

 

[Primetime]

@wire28 Granted I was watching black panther multiple views 2 years ago because black fictional excellence, etc... but i remember on one of my last viewings i was at the back of the theater and this young white couple (teens) were yappin they fukkin mouth like they were on a date. I shushed them several times in a 30 minute stretch but i guess they ADHD kept acting up after 5 or so minutes of decency. So finally i had enough.

The boyfriend stood up and walked down the aisle, to exit out the theater to use the restroom. Well i followed him out. Found him in the restroom standing infront of a urinal, i walked my ass to the urinal beside him and said "listen boy, i'm trying to watch this movie and you and your girl are too damn loud. It's disrespectful. Yall need to cut that shyt out aight? "

White boy was prob 16-17 but his expression was: " yes sir. mm-my bad."

I said aight. He left the restroom, and when i walked back, that muthafukka was quiet as a mouse lookin at his feet and his girl was lookin at me like i was the grim reaper.

I enjoyed the rest of my fukking movie