According to Polls, Kamala is behind In Virtually Every Single Swing State

[sportscribe]

I've been tracking the polls and I'm not even exaggerating a bit. Yes, most are within the margin of error, but it's not a positive trend imo. She was polling way better just a month ago after she crushed him in the debate - which is why he refused a second. Now, the swing states for some reason seem to be tilted towards the right. I can only hope data is being scrawled from right-wing echo chambers like X, because this is not trending in Kamala's favor.

Arizona: Arizona : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Trump +2.4)

North Carolina: North Carolina : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Trump +1.4)

Georgia: Georgia : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Trump +1.8)

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Trump +0.7)

Nevada: Nevada : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Trump +0.3)

Wisconsin: Wisconsin : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Harris +0.6)

Michigan: Michigan : President: general election : 2024 Polls (Harris +0.8)

Based on polling, I'd call NV, PA, WI, MI genuine toss-ups. I'm actually surprised by GA. She is not leading a single GA poll. But the good thing about GA is absentee balloting a and strong early voter turnout are usually positive signs for Democrats. That said, if she loses both PA and GA it is going to be hard to see a path to victory for her - even if she wins NV, MI and WI. In a situation where she ends up losing GA and PA, she would need to win the aforementioned three and secure NC - which would have her winning a very narrow race. I'm going to predict that whoever wins this election is going to win at least 2 of GA, PA and NC. Those are the three key states and where all political energy should be focused if I were in her camp. In fact, I might even go as far as saying whoever wins PA wins the election.

Kamala can lose GA and NC and still get to 270 if she wins PA as long as she holds WI and MI. Dems better hope for a good turnout. If I were to predict, I'd say a heavy landslide 281-257 to the Republicans, or 276-262 to Dems in a very close race. If Dems can win any combination of GA, PA, NC, then they win a landslide; only that that polls are suggesting this is unlikely. Again, watch PA as an early indicator of who should win the election.

Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just following the data.

 

[In The Zone '98]

Polls don't mean anything

 

[At30wecashout]

If it aint the November 5th poll, it doesn’t matter.

 

[Elim Garak]

Them polls don't mean shyt. Especially when we have a pretty good amount of early voting data. Obviously we don't know who people are voting for yet, but it looks like she will be fine imo.

 

[Tribal Outkast]

Different places are reporting different results with these polls. Lets see where we are next weekend

 

[Elim Garak]

I really don't know how people are still trusting in polling so heavily tbh. I understand using it as a tool, but people believe in them too much.

 

[Child_Of_God]

Hillary Clinton was up by as much as 2 to 3 points in the swing polls during the last week of the 2016 election and still lose. Biden was up by as much as 4 to 7 points in the swing polls in 2020 and won.

Kamala as of right now is actually doing way worse than both of them.

 

[RickyDiBiase]

told ya'll.

 

[Elim Garak]

Also if this is true about enthusiasm it's safe to say those polls are wrong.

 

[Elim Garak]

Hillary Clinton was up by as much as 2 to 3 points in the swing polls during the last week of the 2016 election and still lose. Biden was up by as much as 4 to 7 points in the swing polls in 2020 and won.

Kamala as of right now is actually doing way worse than both of them.

Doesn't mean anything. The polling methodology isn't the same as either one of those elections.

 

[Jasonmask]

And that’s with the margin of error. Not to take in account the people not being vocal about voting for trump because it’s not a popular thing to announce

 

[sportscribe]

Hillary Clinton was up by as much as 2 to 3 points in the swing polls during the last week of the 2016 election and still lose. Biden was up by as much as 4 to 7 points in the swing polls in 2020 and won.

Kamala as of right now is actually doing way worse than both of them.

I explain some of it here btw..

https://www.thecoli.com/threads/its-getting-to-a-point-where-any-black-person-with-a-decent-job-is-going-to-be-accused-of-being-a-diversity-hire.1013646/page-7#post-51529830

 

[the cac mamba]

 

[AngryBaby]

x.com

x.com

Dems are easily outpacing the GOP in early vote here. You may have heard the total number for Dem mail ins is down vs 2020 and Republican ballots are up over 2020, which is accurate.

That's expected - there are way less mail in ballots requested because 2024 is not a pandemic year, and Republicans stopped telling their voters that mail in votes were fraud and encouraged them to vote early this year.

 

[AngryBaby]