Every day we see another report on whom the Warriors might pick with the No. 2 draft choice in the upcoming NBA Draft. So far, the smartest money appears to be on James Wiseman, he of three career college games played at Memphis. On the
Warriors Plus-Minus podcast, the Wiseman momentum is undeniable. At last count, we have Tim Kawakami, Marcus Thompson and Anthony Slater all aboard the James Wiseman Wagon. I am the last holdout, due to my suspicion regarding centers picked near the top of the draft and the underwhelming assessment I gave his lone high-level college game versus Oregon.
But many of those conversations happened prior to the latter stages of the postseason. There have been developments since. Namely, many of us went from assuming ultimate victory for the wing-powered Clippers to seeing Nikola Jokić and his Will Ferrell physique power its way to the Western Conference finals. From there, we saw Anthony Davis ascend even higher, dunking all over the comparatively
lilliputian Heat front line in the NBA Finals.
Has the calculus changed? For what it’s worth, Steve Kerr has been one to worry about upcoming center matchups in the playoffs. During the Warriors’ dynastic run, Kerr would rattle off names of the rising bigs out West as a concern worth addressing. It’s doubtful that those concerns have been quelled.
The Warriors are in an unusual position in this draft. They aren’t a true cellar dweller who must take “Best Player Available” no matter what. They also don’t have a glaring positional weakness, unless you believe that the wheels have truly fallen off for Draymond Green or that Andrew Wiggins is going to severely underperform what he did in his short stint with the Warriors last season. Both outcomes are plausible, but no gap right now is enough to demand the Warriors’ attention to any one area. So this seems like the right setup for the Warriors to draft not necessarily for positional need, but for oppositional need. As in, if you expect to keep facing Davis and Jokić year after year, and that they will be standing between you and the Finals, that’s perhaps the biggest issue to address.
It’s an issue that runs counter to how the league has been going. Basketball is getting shorter and faster of late. It just appears that, no matter how swift the competition gets, it might not be quick enough to outrun the long reach of one Anthony Davis.
Which brings us back to Wiseman. Again, I was not particularly impressed by his very short college stint. At the same time, he has the physical tools. At 7-foot-1, 240 pounds, he has a frame that appears comparable to Joel Embiid or Rudy Gobert. I say “appears” because we are working without a real NBA combine right now and must rely on reports, to a degree. Plus, Wiseman “appears” to be huge.
Big-man battles, as I learned doing my gambling column, often go like a decisive game of Rock Paper Scissors. Big-man matchups go more decisively than matchups between wings perhaps because big men, once stymied, are a little less prone to keep calling for the ball.
From the gambling column:
“Marc Gasol gives Joel Embiid problems, Embiid gives Anthony Davis problems, Davis gives Drummond problems (among many other bigs), and Drummond owns the aforementioned Towns matchup. Drummond is also stymied by Steven Adams, whose rugged style of defense is muted by the idiosyncratic offense Nikola Jokić orchestrates.”
The aforementioned Davis will get his numbers against almost anyone, but watch what happens when a guy as large, strong and quick as Embiid checks him:
For what it’s worth, in four career games going against Embiid, Davis shot a dismal 36 percent from the field. Having watched the last of those meetings, I can say that Embiid does a wonderful job shoving Davis off his preferred spots and making him uncomfortable. In the event that the Doc Rivers’ honeymoon ends quickly in Philadelphia, Embiid’s AD-frustrating capabilities are worth remembering.
As for the other Western behemoth of concern — Jokić — Gobert gave him some trouble this postseason. Jokić and the Nuggets ultimately prevailed over seven games, but Gobert’s length frustrated Jokić’s perimeter passing game and offered resistance to Jokić’s drives.
There is, obviously, no guarantee that Wiseman turns into either one of these guys defensively. We just know that he has physical tools that constitute a prerequisite for getting there, tools which 99 percent of even NBA players lack.
So am I on the Wiseman Wagon along with my colleagues? I’m not quite there, but the 2020 playoffs changed things. Wings were king, but the game is always evolving. Now, to get back into contention, the Warriors likely need to resolve their literally biggest obstacles. James Wiseman could be the guy to do that. In an uncertain draft, that’s at least enough to justify a No. 2 pick, regardless of whether I, or anyone else, prefers another option.