A Trump Presidency Seems All But Certain As Kamala’s Poll Numbers Collapse. :mjcry:

Spence

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That's not how it works

Regan been dead 20 years and ex president for 40 and he's still not in the rearview
Reagan was a policy genius, other than the Supreme Court, Trumps clown ass didn’t really “do” anything.
 

Professor Emeritus

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No it wasn’t, Hillary wasn’t up 5pt nationally on Trump… she was either up 1pt or tied


:gucci:

This is some bizarre revisionist history.


Hillary was up as much as 7 points in the poll average as late as October 17, part of a stretch where her lead stayed over 5 points nearly the entire month of October. On election day she was up ~4 points.



Meanwhile, this entire year Harris has NEVER had a 4-point average in the 538 polls. The best she did is 3.7 back in August. Right now she's up 2.5.





So Clinton's lead was well over TWICE what Harris's lead is. Where do you come up with this shyt? :dahell:
 

Damnshow

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Just vote for Democrats without reading any of this poll stuff. When have they ever predicted the future a whole month before the elections?

Some republicans will lose in red states like NC with mark robinson being clearly a crash dummy that even republicans are turning their back on him.

But at the same time there will be swing states where trump wins.

You can find all kinds of statistics to suit your needs.
 

Professor Emeritus

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So Where did MAGA gain ground in 2024 compared to 2020? They have no offices in swing states, no ground game, and alienating people left and right from all demographics.


MAGA wasn't running against an administration with a 40% approval rating in 2020. :yeshrug:



The #1 reason that Democrats won in 2020 is because mail-in voting allowed unprecedented turnout, which always favors Democrats. Most states don't have such lax mail-in voting rules anymore.

On top of that, Democrats had a big boost from Trump fukking up Covid plus the George Floyd protests. Right now, the #1 issues in the public eye are immigration and inflation, and to a lesser degree foreign wars, and a slight majority of people have Biden/Kamala on the losing end of those issues.

Most concerning, really, is that the swing voter issue in almost every single election is perceptions of the economy. In 2020, the economy had almost entirely shut down, and Trump, as the incumbent, naturally got blamed for that, whether it was his fault or not. Right now, the perception is that the economy sucks for working/middle class folk, and whether true or not the incumbent Democrats are getting blame for that.



The ONLY reason that Dems might win this election is because switching to Kamala slightly distanced the ticket from the Biden Administration (although not nearly as effectively as if Dems had picked Whitmer or someone else who was outside of the administration entirely), and because Trump/Vance have been colossal fukkups. In any normal election season, this would be a clear Democratic L.
 

Squirrel from Meteor Man

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MAGA wasn't running against an administration with a 40% approval rating in 2020. :yeshrug:



The #1 reason that Democrats won in 2020 is because mail-in voting allowed unprecedented turnout, which always favors Democrats. Most states don't have such lax mail-in voting rules anymore.

On top of that, Democrats had a big boost from Trump fukking up Covid plus the George Floyd protests. Right now, the #1 issues in the public eye are immigration and inflation, and to a lesser degree foreign wars, and a slight majority of people have Biden/Kamala on the losing end of those issues.

Most concerning, really, is that the swing voter issue in almost every single election is perceptions of the economy. In 2020, the economy had almost entirely shut down, and Trump, as the incumbent, naturally got blamed for that, whether it was his fault or not. Right now, the perception is that the economy sucks for working/middle class folk, and whether true or not the incumbent Democrats are getting blame for that.



The ONLY reason that Dems might win this election is because switching to Kamala slightly distanced the ticket from the Biden Administration (although not nearly as effectively as if Dems had picked Whitmer or someone else who was outside of the administration entirely), and because Trump/Vance have been colossal fukkups. In any normal election season, this would be a clear Democratic L.
The only reason Trump is competitive is due to two-party politics and racism. You’re dealing with an almost 80 year mentally declining criminal with no policies and a running mate who creates stories about black people eating cats and dogs Contrast that to a younger, more energetic, more intelligent opponent on the other side with spelled out policies and it should be a no brainer.

It’s not about the economy or immigration. It’s about racism and stupidity :yeshrug:. A poor uneducated person voting for Trump displays why they are poor and uneducated.

A lot is made out of Biden dropping out, but even while he was running the race was virtually tied. Trump is not a good candidate, and the overwhelming majority of his party understands this.

Polls are always going to be weird science. Go out and vote; believe none of what you’re hearing and reading. The media will tell you that black men are leaning towards Trump, but they won’t tell you the black men they’re polling didn’t vote in 2016 or 2020. It’s all noise.
 
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