That's not how it works
Regan been dead 20 years and ex president for 40 and he's still not in the rearview
A Trump Presidency Seems All But Certain As Kamala’s Poll Numbers Collapse. :mjcry:
- Thread starter I Really Mean It
- Start date
Regan been dead 20 years and ex president for 40 and he's still not in the rearview
So Where did MAGA gain ground in 2024 compared to 2020? They have no offices in swing states, no ground game, and alienating people left and right from all demographics.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
the person you’re responding is on my ignore list.
must one of the #bothsides c00ns.
Armchair Militant
Stay woke
Trump outperformed the polling in the last two elections. Harris is polling worse than Hillary and Biden did. 
An almost ten year long Nightmare on Elm Street scenario.
Just when you think the MF is down, he pops back up.
Breh, not a single one of those polls was more than 10 points away from 50-50. That is DEFINITELY a coin flip. By comparison, estimates the weekend before the election in 2016 varied from 70-30 to 90-10, and most estimates before that weekend were even more definitive.
False. She's lost recent polls in every single swing state. You have no idea whether she'd win or not.
That's not how it works. Trump is gaining ground in California and New York, does that mean he's gonna win too?
1st point is debatable, 2nd is outright false. Trump can lose Pennsylvania and still win with just one out of Michigan or Wisconsin. If Kamala loses Pennsylvania, she needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, AND Georgia to stay ahead.
She's virtually tied in all of those states.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
no, she isn’t. she is out pacing hillary and biden on certain demographics.Trump outperformed the polling in the last two elections. Harris is polling worse than Hillary and Biden did.
pollsters have also adjusted their polling algorithm to account for the supposed “hidden trump voter.”
yall sound like you want a trump presidency.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
none of what you said is supported by the facts.
i won’t even waste time dismantling this pedantic drivel.
when did you turn into a c00n?
i’m blocking you.
Maybe we need to look at actual polls, cause high schools never teach statistics well enough and so people don't realize that 58-42 odds on a one-time event are a virtual coin flip and not a commanding lead.
Here are the 5 most recently completed high-value polls in each swing state (according to Silver Bulletin), with the most recent one listed first:
www.natesilver.net
Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (Trafalga), Trump +1 (Patriot), Even (OnMessage), Even (Emerson), Trump +1 (AtlasIntel)
Michigan: Trump +2 (Trafalgar), Even (Mitchell), Harris +3 (RMG), Even (NYT/Siena), Trump +4 (AtlasIntel)
Wisconsin: Trump +1 (Trafalgar), Harris +2 (NYT/Siera, Harris +5 (Marquette Law School), Trump +2 (Atlas Inel), Harris +3 (Morning Consult)
Georgia: Even (InsiderAdvantage), Trump +5 (Quinnipiac), Even (Atlas intel), Trump +1 (Marist), Trump +2 (YouGov)
Arizona: Harris +3 (HighGround), Trump +4 (Emerson), Trump +1 (Marist), Trump +1 (AtlasIntel), Trump +3 (Beacon Research)
Nevada: Trump +1 (Insider Advantage), Harris +3 (AtlasiInsider), Harris +1 (TIPP), Harris +6 (Morning Consult), Trump +1 (TRasmussen)
North Carolina: Trump +1 (InsiderAdvantage), Trump +2 (The Washington Post), Trump +1 (Quinnipiac), Trump +1 (Emerson), Trump +2 (East Carolina)
How many of those states look like a safe guarantee to you? The only ones even close are Wisconsin and Nevada, and neither of those are sure things. If Kamala wins both of those states, she'll still need TWO other states to win the election and Arizona isn't big enough to be one of them.
Kamala could win Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada and she STILL would lose the election if she doesn't get Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia...three states where she hasn't won any of the last 5 polls.
Here are the 5 most recently completed high-value polls in each swing state (according to Silver Bulletin), with the most recent one listed first:
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
www.natesilver.net
Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (Trafalga), Trump +1 (Patriot), Even (OnMessage), Even (Emerson), Trump +1 (AtlasIntel)
Michigan: Trump +2 (Trafalgar), Even (Mitchell), Harris +3 (RMG), Even (NYT/Siena), Trump +4 (AtlasIntel)
Wisconsin: Trump +1 (Trafalgar), Harris +2 (NYT/Siera, Harris +5 (Marquette Law School), Trump +2 (Atlas Inel), Harris +3 (Morning Consult)
Georgia: Even (InsiderAdvantage), Trump +5 (Quinnipiac), Even (Atlas intel), Trump +1 (Marist), Trump +2 (YouGov)
Arizona: Harris +3 (HighGround), Trump +4 (Emerson), Trump +1 (Marist), Trump +1 (AtlasIntel), Trump +3 (Beacon Research)
Nevada: Trump +1 (Insider Advantage), Harris +3 (AtlasiInsider), Harris +1 (TIPP), Harris +6 (Morning Consult), Trump +1 (TRasmussen)
North Carolina: Trump +1 (InsiderAdvantage), Trump +2 (The Washington Post), Trump +1 (Quinnipiac), Trump +1 (Emerson), Trump +2 (East Carolina)
How many of those states look like a safe guarantee to you? The only ones even close are Wisconsin and Nevada, and neither of those are sure things. If Kamala wins both of those states, she'll still need TWO other states to win the election and Arizona isn't big enough to be one of them.
Kamala could win Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada and she STILL would lose the election if she doesn't get Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia...three states where she hasn't won any of the last 5 polls.
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Now I don't think the situation is as dire as that "last five polls" list makes it look. First off, many of those polls give Trump just 1-2 point leads, which are virtual ties. Second off, Kamala had some better results in earlier polls from 2 weeks ago, and pollsters are still counting those polls in their averages.
Put it all together, and the race is still virtually a tie. Problem is people see Silver saying that Kamala has a 55-45 edge in odds, and they don't realize that IS a virtual tie, not a commanding lead.
Edit: Here's an easy comparison. The team that scores first in an NBA game wins 54% of the time. Silver says that Kamala has a 55% chance of winning right now. So those odds are almost exactly the same.
When was the last time you were watching a basketball game and thought, "Well, the Blazers scored first so we know who is going to win this one"?
Put it all together, and the race is still virtually a tie. Problem is people see Silver saying that Kamala has a 55-45 edge in odds, and they don't realize that IS a virtual tie, not a commanding lead.
Edit: Here's an easy comparison. The team that scores first in an NBA game wins 54% of the time. Silver says that Kamala has a 55% chance of winning right now. So those odds are almost exactly the same.
When was the last time you were watching a basketball game and thought, "Well, the Blazers scored first so we know who is going to win this one"?
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King_Kamala61
TheColi's Favorite Artist
Why you shytting on these negroes reality man? Let them bask in whatever ignorance they can conjure up lol.
Anyone with any damn sense knows you don't trust polling ever. But these Kamala Devi Harris lovers seem to enjoy their stupidity or their medical diagnosis of denial.
Either way breh, you can't wake up a sleep walker....it's dangerous
Breh, I trust the polling to the degree that statistics allow. The problem is that the human mind is extremely poor at evaluating the meaning of any particular statistical probability.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
if the current numbers were reversed, y’all would be freaking out, asking how to get into canada, and contemplating even more drastic measures.
you know i’m right.
you know i’m right.
You had TLR like
“Y'all nikkas dreamed it, I've seen it
Body warm, heart anemic (I really mean it)
Coke, a nikka steamed it, fiends I leaned 'em
Beemer leaned it (I really mean it)
Guns, really beamin', rarely miss, what's really good?
Bikes, wheelie and creamin' (I really mean it)”
No it wasn’t, Hillary wasn’t up 5pt nationally on Trump… she was either up 1pt or tied