45% of American jobs are at risk of being taken by computers in the next two decades.

[DEAD7]

You still haven't pointed out the evil in it, or what's wrong with branding... Or what u find so appalling?

 

[Field Marshall Bradley]

You still haven't pointed out the evil in it, or what's wrong with branding... Or what u find so appalling?

This is a common misconception.

Businesses can only charge what the market will bear, and do well when they can offer goods at a lower price than competition and still turn a profit.(i.e Wal-Mart or McDonalds).

To shoot the red down....basically

I am not talking about right or wrong...I'm talking about the outdated model of buying for one and selling for 2 like you claim Wal Mart and McDs do and that is not the case...

They have a brand rep with a certain demographic and they do not have to lower their price.....Matter of fact, when have you seen a flagship product from any of these stores priced lower than what they were prior to the so called recession?

I can get a burger cheaper than McDs, but yet they sell more burgers than anybody...I can definitely get a burger better than McD's, but they still sell more burgers than the shops with higher quality as well....That's because it aint about cheaper or better or even the so called competition in the fast food market....

Its solely about branding......Which is the same reason why McD's can pay their workers a liveable wage and not hurt from it profit wise....

 

[rantanamo]

Feels like Thomas Friedman's 'The World Is Flat' was prophetic. Specialization, deep computer skills or high level management will win out. All else will eventually fail. Global labor market plus technological advancement means that low level skills and manual labor are increasingly worthless.

The missing story is that services are the fastest growing part of the US economy. There will be certain experiences that people will pay other humans to provide that computers can't replace. Personal training, massages, athletic endeavors and instruction, acting, writing, etc.

This is the naive cry of those in the STEM fields, yet they continue to create the very systems that will put themselves out of work in the name of their employer or personal wealth. Specialization in employment has been purposely decreasing for the last 60 years because it pays too much. Deep computer skills will be replaced by the AI that many of these people are creating. What would high level management = about 10 people at each mid-sized to large company. How will this sustain the human race? I bet some of yall think you will build, pilot and maintain Starships someday.too.

Have you ever worked in customer service? While people complain about 'furiners' and computers, if their equipment could fix itself they could give a shyt about some person in Texas that they want to scream idiot at. Personal training? When one won't have to train because of future nutrition and cellular reproduction? Massages? You think a robot can't be built with the same feel and sensitivity? Instruction? acting, writing? Doctors have no chance.

I think we are headed towards a world of wealth vs overwhelming poverty. 20 years? More like 50-75 I would think. I would hope that's enough time for people to realize its happening, but of course we will listen to some white guy in a suit telling us we don't work hard enough or aren't majoring in the right subjects. Sorry, but this time is different. People have reached the point where they are creating things to replace themselves. At the same time, technologies for those that can afford it are being created to help them live longer and longer. If we can't see where this is going, its because we have been distracted by the smartphones and tablets we stick our faces in everytime we have a free moment. A world of the few is being created, but this time it won't be on the backs of the poor. It will be on the bones of the poor.

 

[mbewane]

Won't happen, but not for a positive reason either

http://www.thecoli.com/threads/on-the-phenomenon-of-bullshyt-jobs.142085/

 

[J-Fire]

and they said the same thing about the cotton gin, lol.



look....some people will suffer, especially people 40-60yrs old they ain't trying to learn a new job. But we have to grow society as a hole and more jobs will open up in computer repair. People have to be flexible skill wise.....don't put all your eggs in one basket cause things change every 20yrs now in days.

society is better off in general and people have to learn new jobs in which they will actually make more money!!!! only bad thing is the education requirement and dealing with being laid off. Like a factory closing up is giving way to higher paying secretarial jobs as the new sweatshop.

What do you do when a computer thinks up the cotton gin, the printing press, the automobile, the airplane, the internet, facebook, 3d printers, baxter, nanobots...

And implements it faster than you can imagine it.

Because thats what AI intends to outsource. Artificial intelligence does not intend to complement the human situation; it is meant to replace it.

that's really going to take some time for robots to be functional with people like on the jetsons.
but that opens up opportunities for robot repair technicians/ robot hospitals. Nothing is going to happen overnight....people will slowly be replaced in manual labor jobs before
you have a robotic bank teller. However, with online banking and fully online banks you don't have to deal with a person all up in your business these days. People said the same thing about the ATM taking away jobs, lol.

And you still can't replace the oldest profession....prostitution. AI ain't going to get me off.


We are getting rid of sweatshops with AI today..... as in people overseas with outsourcing, lol. It hurts right now for some people in the US.....but it makes us better off in the long run. Right now a Cambodian making $2 an hr is cheaper than any robot labor will be for a long time in the US.

 

[J-Fire]

But what's crazy is, were on the verge of technological infinity...where if option A was to occur, everyone could virtually live out the life they wanted. I think we need to pay more attention to the leaders we elect and support now more than ever, because this is not going to be an instantenous flip...the devil is in the transition; which probably could be as long as a century.

As jobs go away, and more people depend on the state or whatever entity decides to pop up to support the increasingly displaced; there's going to be even more division between those who have and those who do not. If those who have the power and resources choose to withdrawal from the larger society, we will be in a world of trouble.

Ironically, I support capitalism and business, but I realize un-checked capitalism is not good for anyone except those at the top who can afford to manipulate the system.

Every technological advance in history has created more jobs that pay more money. People used to hate grocery stores because they put local specialty stores for food out of business....but it improved the quality of life for society by being convenient.

US technological advancement will improve the quality of life....We still have too much manual labor in the country. I expect creative profession to take off once we get rid of manual labor. More musicians, artist, and entertainers since we don't have to do back breaking labor all the time.

 

[Swagnificent]

Sounds like utter bullshyt, do I think things will stay the way they are now for my lifetime? Of course not. Those numbers are stretch armstrong status. In the next two decades? Friend surely you jest.

its already started......just think about how many jobs the driverless car technology is gonna cost.......you can pretty much kiss goodbye all Taxi and truck drivers

 

[Swagnificent]

yeah i think all of a sudden these greedy corporations will lower their prices

Why would prices go down? That's not good business. They will probably go up if anything

unless there is a monopoly, corps will lower prices if the cost of production decreases and they believe they can make an extra dollar against a competitor who is selling for more

simple economics

now the problem is we don't have a true capitalist society in this country....but in theory lower costs of production should lead to lower costs for consumers

 

[Swagnificent]

So in the future, the underclass will only grow as more and more low skill jobs are taken over by machines. Only the highly educated and highly skilled will have jobs. The rest of us will live in shelters or on the streets.

actually the artificial intelligence revolution will engulf ALL human jobs eventually

even a job as sophisticated as being a doctor is not outside the realm of a computer takeover.....the seeds are already here......for one the jeaporady playing computer Watson is right now reading all medical journals that have ever existed.......once it can master all of medical knowledge like it did the trivia knowledge needed to play jeaopardy better than the best humans......it should be able to diagnose ailements as good as Dr. House.......add that to the robot revolution which is taking over surgery in which alot of the most complex surgeries are being handled by robots with just human oversight......it won't be long before hospitals look like car manufacturing plants with robots and computers doing most of the real work and humans just being used as oversight

in 2 decades, you might visit a hospital and interact only with computers like the checkout line at Krogers....tell the computer your symptoms.....the AI will check your personal history against a database of all possible known disases then give you the medicine for what most likely ails you......if you need surgery the robot will perform it.....human doctors will be relegated to the level of commercial airline pilots...... they'll just be around to make us humans feel a little safer eventhough the autopilot is really doing all the work

 

[Vandelay]

that's really going to take some time for robots to be functional with people like on the jetsons.
but that opens up opportunities for robot repair technicians/ robot hospitals. Nothing is going to happen overnight....people will slowly be replaced in manual labor jobs before
you have a robotic bank teller. However, with online banking and fully online banks you don't have to deal with a person all up in your business these days. People said the same thing about the ATM taking away jobs, lol.

And you still can't replace the oldest profession....prostitution. AI ain't going to get me off.


We are getting rid of sweatshops with AI today..... as in people overseas with outsourcing, lol. It hurts right now for some people in the US.....but it makes us better off in the long run. Right now a Cambodian making $2 an hr is cheaper than any robot labor will be for a long time in the US.

I'm thinking beyond the Jetsons. Look up a robot called "Baxter"...there was a reason why I included that in a previous post. It only costs $22,000. Cheaper than what I would consider a livable wage for a person with a family in the USA. And its not stopping there...we are always are loooking to make something bigger, faster, stronger, and cheaper. So if they have Baxter in 2013. What do you think they will have in 2023. And they are applying this technology to everything, even creative works.

Without getting too deep into the realm of Sci-fi...we humans are at our metaphysical maximum; were not really going to get much smarter, faster, or stronger...without some kind of augmentation. Machines and computers can get faster with a firmware update.

I never said it would be an immediate transition...and quite honestly...thats what is going to exacerbate the situation. If we could make this transition overnight, we could probably have utopian society overnight. But as there are increases in unemployment, increases in QoL for the rich and decreases in QoL for the poor; social unrest will ensue. I can imagine protests, strikes, violence against corporations who choose to use robotic labor instead of humans.

Now here is the real catch 22 we have to watch out for. As less people can afford the services and products that these corporations provide, and keep the economy going...there will be a withdrawal of those resources and capital by those in power. Kind of like the recession we just saw, but on a different scale.

 

[Swagnificent]

I choose option b. I don't think the elite would allow option A to happen. Think about it, these people are sitting on the top of the canopy, living and eating well, with the elite class knowledge. There's no way they'd want to share the power with anyone who isn't blood related, or anyone who isn't beneficial to their plot.

but it won't be their choice.......option A will eventually happen or all human society will fall apart......option B can only go on for so long before people revolt and we get a 21st century French revolution

I think you guys underestimate the power of the technology that is coming. Once something like 3D printing matures, your talking about laptop sized machines that can create physical objects in the real world out of atoms like the Star Trek replicator. That sort of technology is SO POWERFUL and will eventually be SO CHEAP (just as first generation smart phones are now sellling in Africa) that it alone will make it so that the lives of the poorest people in 2050 will be better than billionairies living today. And I haven't even mentioned full imersion virtual reality which will replace all other forms of entertainment. I'm pretty sure movies and TV won't exist in 2050 because becoming movie character in virtual worlds indisinguishable from our own will be much more interesting than watching people act on a 2D screen.

The near future will be so powerful in how it changes our world that I don't think you guys understand why this talk about jobs is meaningless.

 

[Swagnificent]

I think we are headed towards a world of wealth vs overwhelming poverty. 20 years? More like 50-75 I would think. I would hope that's enough time for people to realize its happening, but of course we will listen to some white guy in a suit telling us we don't work hard enough or aren't majoring in the right subjects. Sorry, but this time is different. People have reached the point where they are creating things to replace themselves. At the same time, technologies for those that can afford it are being created to help them live longer and longer. If we can't see where this is going, its because we have been distracted by the smartphones and tablets we stick our faces in everytime we have a free moment. A world of the few is being created, but this time it won't be on the backs of the poor. It will be on the bones of the poor.

Do you have any idea how much better life is now for the poorest among us in first world countries vs. kings from the 1500s? The poorest Americans still have food they can eat. shyt McDonalds burgers require more people to make than the most fanciful dinners of royalty hundreds of years ago. TV, internet, movies, theme parks, sports, cars, etc. Life is ALOT better now even for the poor.

As I have said already in this thread, you guys are VASTLY underestimating how far reaching the technological revolution will be. Thinks like 3D printing and full immersion virtual reality will make the lives of the poor in the near future 30-40 years vastly better than even the richest people today. And before you come in here talking about anything that good will cost lots of money. Just look at smartphones. You can now get first generation smartphones in Africa for 50 bucks. In 5 years it will be less than 10 dollars. Even the poorest Africans can afford to get smartphones in 5 years. Google project loon is gonna provide then free wifi internet. Now imagine how crazy that is. Kids in Africa who don't have access to clean drinking water or indoor pluming will be able to connect to the internet with smartphones that just 10 years earlier costs hundreds of dollars and only the wealthiest among us in the first world could get it.

That is the power of computer techonlogy. So when the first Star Trek replicators come along that can make any physical object atom by atom, they are gonna cost alot and only the wealthiest people will be able to afford it. But they will get cheaper and in 10 years the poorest people will be able to afford what only the richest could get. That is why I say that the poorest among us in 30-40 years will live better than the richest today. Sure there will be some things that will always be available to the ultra wealthy or connected but the future will make live immeasurably better just as it has always done.

 

[Depreciating Asset]

when there is no need for man to labor anymore we will all be

Why haven't we already reached this point already? There is enough food, shelter, clothing and health care to go around. Greed is driving our soicety (at least in the US) to work 40+ hour weeks not basic needs. If this is the case now, I am skeptical it will change regardless of the power of computers in the future. We could be all chilling but we always want more.

 

[Field Marshall Bradley]

Every technological advance in history has created more jobs that pay more money. People used to hate grocery stores because they put local specialty stores for food out of business....but it improved the quality of life for society by being convenient.

US technological advancement will improve the quality of life....We still have too much manual labor in the country. I expect creative profession to take off once we get rid of manual labor. More musicians, artist, and entertainers since we don't have to do back breaking labor all the time.

 

[DEAD7]

Why haven't we already reached this point already? There is enough food, shelter, clothing and health care to go around. Greed is driving our soicety (at least in the US) to work 40+ hour weeks not basic needs. If this is the case now, I am skeptical it will change regardless of the power of computers in the future. We could be all chilling but we always want more.

Resources are scarce.

This planet is finite, and we must acknowledge it.