2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House

WHO WINS?


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CourtesyFlush

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Ive been seeing comments from conservatives that seem confident about the election say things like this. A quote from reddit: "The RCP "This Day In History" is telling. In 2016, it was Clinton + 1.6. In 2020, it was Biden +7.9. Today, its Trump +0.6"

Can anyone break that down for me?
 

Piff Huxtable

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Ive been seeing comments from conservatives that seem confident about the election say things like this. A quote from reddit: "The RCP "This Day In History" is telling. In 2016, it was Clinton + 1.6. In 2020, it was Biden +7.9. Today, its Trump +0.6"

Can anyone break that down for me?
They think polls are underestimating Trump for 3rd time after 2016 and 2020
 

good pups

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Ive been seeing comments from conservatives that seem confident about the election say things like this. A quote from reddit: "The RCP "This Day In History" is telling. In 2016, it was Clinton + 1.6. In 2020, it was Biden +7.9. Today, its Trump +0.6"

Can anyone break that down for me?
They think polls are underestimating Trump for 3rd time after 2016 and 2020

Yeah. Most places have tried to update their polling methodology to capture the share of Trump votes they missed in 16 and 20.

At the very least the hope is he can't overperform in the same way this year because his baseline is higher. If he overperformed like in 16 or 20 he'd end up with like over 50% of the vote.

Also, it's possible that he's narrowing the margins in big blue states like CA and NY.
 

Frump

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Plouffe works for the campaign and doesn’t sugarcoat things so him being publicly confident is a good sign

It not only means things are going well because of that but Dems wanted to downplay good polling so they don’t get complacent. Him being positive publicly must mean he’s confident in a high turnout
 
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