2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

WHO WINS?


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Conan

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Good. Doesn't affect the Bezos bottom line but would be nice to have Harris check him when she becomes president.

She's too much of a middle-of-the-road capitalist to do that :mjgrin:

this is pretty funny, 11% of the kids supporting gary johnson in 2016

Screenshot-2024-10-28-132554.png

Wonder if Republicans hate-blame Perot for "swinging the election to Clinton" :jbhmm:

this is really interesting on polling:




It is, but pollsters do not choose weights on a whim. They use data to make educated guesses on the appropriate weight that best fits data and trends, then apply those weights in their forecasts.

The issue with that is the paucity of data. Only 1 election every 4 years, and you can't go back more than 30 years, the country has changed so much. So there is just so much noise in the data.

See those prediction lines for Kamala and Trump? Just slap fat bell curves around each line. The overlap of those 2 bells represents how it's futile to precisely call a winner ahead of time.

I think it's simply better to hedge against the worst outcome. Simply put: bet on Trump
 
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