2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

WHO WINS?


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Macallik86

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Nate Silver on his rationale behind his current election forecast. A good read (imo):

TL;DR:
  • The model tries to smooth over a temporary convention bounce, but since hers was smaller than expected, it might be penalizing or it might portend to a temporary wane in momentum
  • She needs better numbers in PA due to it's electoral college pull
  • Kennedy dropping out of the race wasn't expected to have a meaningful impact, but the immediate, wholehearted endorsement is having a bigger impact than the model predicted.
Personally, I'm more optimistic after hearing the huge difference in campaign budgets. IMO Trump is successful because he just repeats ideas until ppl believe them and that's basically what political commercials do, so the dems have a chance to drill the message home.

Also, to a lesser degree, if the ANC story has legs it could remind independents/undecideds why Trump is irritating AF.
 

BigMoneyGrip

I'm Lamont's pops
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Straight from Flatbush
Nate Silver on his rationale behind his current election forecast. A good read (imo):

TL;DR:
  • The model tries to smooth over a temporary convention bounce, but since hers was smaller than expected, it might be penalizing or it might portend to a temporary wane in momentum
  • She needs better numbers in PA due to it's electoral college pull
  • Kennedy dropping out of the race wasn't expected to have a meaningful impact, but the immediate, wholehearted endorsement is having a bigger impact than the model predicted.
Personally, I'm more optimistic after hearing the huge difference in campaign budgets. IMO Trump is successful because he just repeats ideas until ppl believe them and that's basically what political commercials do, so the dems have a chance to drill the message home.

Also, to a lesser degree, if the ANC story has legs it could remind independents/undecideds why Trump is irritating AF.

We still listening to flabby Nate? Aka blind fury? :mjlol:
 

King Static X

The Realest King (የተከበረው ንጉሥ)
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That n-gga is done for once he's up for re-election.

He can't pull the CRT scare tatic this time around and he already pissed most of NoVA off by trying to get the new Wizards and Capitols arena at Potomac Yard.
He's not up for re-election. Virginia has a 4-year, single-term governorship (though the same person can be governor non-consecutively).
 
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