Bigger L would have been stacking up a few more Senate seats.
I don't think people realize how ugly the Senate picture is looking the next couple of cycles. In 2024 the Dems have to defend 23 senate seats, the Republicans only have to defend 10. Seats the democrats are defending include Joe Manchin in West Virginia as well as seats in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine. Meanwhile, the most flippable seat the Republicans have to defend is.....Texas? Florida?
Being stuck at 50 right now would be terrible, because it basically means that if Joe Manchin doesn't run for reelection (or switches to the Republicans, or loses his election), then the Democrats just about automatically lose the Senate in 2024. Even if they hit 51, that would mean if Manchin leaves then they have to go 8 for 8 in holding onto the battleground states (and will Tester run again in Montana? Could be fukked there too.) Even if they get 51 and Manchin holds his seat, they still can only lose 1 of those 8 battlegrounds.
So it's virtually impossible for the Democrats to pick up Senate seats in 2024, and there's a dozen different combinations that could have them losing the Senate altogether. Which either means total gridlock if Dems still squeak out the White House, or Desantis with Senate power.
2026 isn't much better. Dems have to defend in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgia, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Republicans have to defend in Montana, Maine, North Carolina....and I guess Iowa? Hopefully 4 more years of demographic shift will make that year a fairer fight, but if they fall behind in 2024 then it will still be a very tough road to get it back in 2026.
Wow. Dems really are fukked.
I feel confident they can hold Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, and Nevada (though all of them will take a lot of effort).
I feel less confident about Ohio. How long can Brown keep winning in a state that has been steadily moving to the right?
I don't know what to say about Arizona with Synema.
Montana and WV are as good as gone, IMO.
This is why many of this year's losses are painful. The senate is so tilted in favor of Republicans (with more small, conservative states). They have to have two senators from EVERY state that they are capable of carrying in a presidential election (like Wisconsin). And they need to be getting at least one senator in the states in which they can come close (NC, for example).
It's really crazy how quickly some states can move to the right.
WV was one of the most reliably Dem states up until 2000. But by the mid 2000s, it was completely gone. Missouri was the quintessential swing state, now it is a lost cause for Dems. Arkansas had two Dem senators in 2010 and still had one until 2014. I doubt it will have any Dem senators for the rest of my lifetime. Iowa seemed like it had become a reliable blue state during Obama's presidency, but now it seems reliably Republican. Ohio and (especially) Florida seem increasingly out of reach.
Thankfully, some of this has been counteracted by certain states moving to the center-left. Virginia is a good example. Georgia gives me some hope. We need to get over the top in states like NC and TX.
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