2022 Midterm Elections: NO RED WAVE! - GOP Takes U.S. House; Dems Keep U.S. Senate

Eye Cue DA COLI GAWD

<--- Cleveland Browns winning that many, boi!
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Bigger L would have been stacking up a few more Senate seats. :francis:


I don't think people realize how ugly the Senate picture is looking the next couple of cycles. In 2024 the Dems have to defend 23 senate seats, the Republicans only have to defend 10. Seats the democrats are defending include Joe Manchin in West Virginia as well as seats in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine. Meanwhile, the most flippable seat the Republicans have to defend is.....Texas? Florida?

Being stuck at 50 right now would be terrible, because it basically means that if Joe Manchin doesn't run for reelection (or switches to the Republicans, or loses his election), then the Democrats just about automatically lose the Senate in 2024. Even if they hit 51, that would mean if Manchin leaves then they have to go 8 for 8 in holding onto the battleground states (and will Tester run again in Montana? Could be fukked there too.) Even if they get 51 and Manchin holds his seat, they still can only lose 1 of those 8 battlegrounds.

So it's virtually impossible for the Democrats to pick up Senate seats in 2024, and there's a dozen different combinations that could have them losing the Senate altogether. Which either means total gridlock if Dems still squeak out the White House, or Desantis with Senate power.


2026 isn't much better. Dems have to defend in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgia, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Republicans have to defend in Montana, Maine, North Carolina....and I guess Iowa? Hopefully 4 more years of demographic shift will make that year a fairer fight, but if they fall behind in 2024 then it will still be a very tough road to get it back in 2026.
You trying too hard. This is the the best case scenario midterm. Try again
 

Professor Emeritus

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Sounds like it's time to make DC and Puerto Rico states :takedat:

But yeah Biden needs to focus on pushing as many judges thru as possible in the next two years if the Senate holds.
gonna have to start some grassroots to get DC to become a state or base the number of senators on population cause other than that we ass out

Agreed on both counts. I can't imagine DC/Rico statehood is realistic but an all-hands-on-deck effort should be given if there's any pathway.




I don't think you realize how wrong it is to make assumptions about 24 in 22. Shyt happens than changes the entire climate in a ny minute


I'm the one who always says you can't predict climate two years out. But my post had nothing whatsoever to do with climate. It's just straight up looking at the states involved. Do you really believe that flipping Texas and Florida in 2024 are realistic possibilities? Cause those are the best chances the Dems have to gain a seat in 2024, and at the same time they have 9 tough seats of their own to defend. Seats moving from tough to safe or vice-versa doesn't tend to change on a year-to-year basis, its taken more like 6-10 years recently to see that kind of movement. Hard to imagine West Virginia, Montana, etc. suddenly being safe Dem seats in 2024 under anything other than amazing circumstances....and even if we get those amazing circumstances, we need West Virginia and Montana just to break even.




You trying too hard. This is the the best case scenario midterm. Try again


We've had dozens of posters the last few months talking about how the Dems were going to win the House cause of abortion, talking about dem chances to win Wisconsin and maybe even North Carolina and Ohio, and now possibly losing all those and maybe even Nevada too is "best case scenario"?

You predicted a blue wave in 2024. Which Republican Senate seats do you think are going to flip? Because I really think you're just saying shyt without looking at what is going on.
 

AquaCityBoy

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For once I don't disagree with Carville.

Florida (and Ohio) is gone and will take decades to get back. They're better off focusing on AZ and GA.
 

BigMoneyGrip

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She fine as shyt no lie make her as a Democrat. On the real she dumb as fukk
With her look etc. She could of went far as a Democrat.
You might be on to something she def got some black lineage somewhere

20220726-110755-Kari%20Lake%201986.jpg
 

AquaCityBoy

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Got damn shame how Black folks didn't turn out for Gary Chambers, considering how the tangibles crowd actually had a candidate that was about that.:francis:


Crowd of tangibles failed big time.

I'll be they didn't even know there was a candidate in Louisiana. Their handlers didn't notify them about a close Dem chance to sabotage.
They probably knew about it and dismissed him because he was 'pandering.'
 
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