the next guy
Superstar
He'll win against trump. But the problem is a new set of gaffes for 4 years.can do it
2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races
- Thread starter mc_brew
- Start date
the next guy
Superstar
Berniewood Hogan
IT'S BERNIE SANDERS WITH A STEEL CHAIR!
I really don't know about that.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
General election polls this early are meaningless but I def agree that approval polls matter. Trump HAS to win MI, PA, and WI in order to get re-elected. Even worse for Trump this time: each of those three states has a democrat Secretary Of State, whereas in 2016 only PA had a democrat Secretary Of State. That means less election fukkery, less ballots being thrown out etc.
The trade war has killed those states and it's hard to see Trump winning. However my concern is this: the most logical election map win I see for democrats results in 285 electoral college votes. I'm assuming dems win MI/PA/WI/IA, Trump wins OH/FL/NC. That's a difference of 15 EC votes between winning and losing. Thus making a state like MI (16) or PA (20) the tipping point. If this comes down to one state, Trump is going to do everything in his power to keep power, and he has already signaled he will accept any foreign help. Those three states have Sec Of States as I said, but what if - hypothetically - we get some type of blatant foreign meddling with voter machines. Or targeted white supremecist violence at inner city polling stations to scare away black/Hispanic voters. He's gonna do anything he can to survive brehs...because losing could mean jail time.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
It is. He's right.
If there was no filibuster the ACA would have been repealed in the last two years. The VRA could be outright repealed instead of relying on courts to unravel it. Multiple democrat bills over the last few decades could be shyt canned.
It's a gamble. You get to pass a lot of stuff...but next time you're in the minority that stuff could get repealed. Imagine passing a gun control bill, losing congress and the presidency in four years and watching it get repealed.
That being said I support ending the filibuster. Just understand the consequences. Popular bills would likely last but then again the Trump era has proven these GOP dudes are more than willing to commit suicide to destroy any progressive legislation. Especially when you can gerrymander districts.
Hood Critic
The Power Circle
The Democrats overall don't benefit from a filibuster for the simple fact that they won't stick together on a vote out of principle like republicans. R's will routinely fall in line to meet the super majority. Despite the fact that the majority of the country is somewhere on the liberal spectrum, gerrymandering and the filibuster help maintain R control.It is. He's right.
If there was no filibuster the ACA would have been repealed in the last two years. The VRA could be outright repealed instead of relying on courts to unravel it. Multiple democrat bills over the last few decades could be shyt canned.
It's a gamble. You get to pass a lot of stuff...but next time you're in the minority that stuff could get repealed. Imagine passing a gun control bill, losing congress and the presidency in four years and watching it get repealed.
That being said I support ending the filibuster. Just understand the consequences. Popular bills would likely last but then again the Trump era has proven these GOP dudes are more than willing to commit suicide to destroy any progressive legislation. Especially when you can gerrymander districts.
Take away the filibuster and you end up dealing a major blow to the stranglehold conservative Congress' have established in the last decade. The idea would be to force them to govern and win elections on more than principle.
King Kreole
natural blondie like goku
this dude fukkin sucks
Piff Perkins
Veteran
You're right but like I said, you risk everything. Sure everything would come down to elections and it would be easier to make your case to the American people...but think about how laws work. It took years before the ACA even went into effect. Imagine how much longer it would take to implement medicare 4 all, in terms of creating the plans...phasing out private insurances...grace periods...etc. Republicans would be perfectly positioned to simply repeal the law before it goes into effect. All they'd have to do is win the presidency, House, and senate. Granted that's not easy, but given that the US economy has a recession about every ten years it's not hard to see how party power switches back and force depending on who gets stuck with the hot potato (bad economy).
People like social programs. Republicans needed to kill Obamacare at the beginning before people saw the benefits. I used to think republicans wouldn't overturn Obamacare once millions of people got on it...but they clearly showed they don't give a fukk over the last couple years. If they could have, they would have ended it. Now imagine what they'd do to a medicare 4 all bill lol.
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
You can always vote for Trump again. That would make your 2016 game theory twice as potent.
fukking clown
the next guy
Superstar
the next guy
Superstar
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
I can’t remember what Bush approval rating was but I think it was higher than Trump now. Even if it was only 3 or 4 points higher that’s very significant.
Trump has way higher negatives than 1st term Bush. Something like 54% of people disapprove. So I think you can expect a higher turnout just based off howa lot people are with his 1st term. We have to see if the Dems put up a quality nominee and how they do in the campaign though.
That’s nice and all but didn’t it come out they cheated to defeat Kerry...
RYan Grim makes solid points here
#bidenboyz need to hide their guy badly