2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races
- Thread starter mc_brew
- Start date
the next guy
Superstar
This is a a push poll for hype.
Edit:
Hmph!
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Monmouth Iowa Poll:
Biden 28%
Warren 19%
Harris 11%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Gillibrand 2%
Yang 2%
I believe that puts Yang in. Bernie ain't looking to good with the college pollsters. Steyer in the cut
Biden 28%
Warren 19%
Harris 11%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Gillibrand 2%
Yang 2%
I believe that puts Yang in. Bernie ain't looking to good with the college pollsters. Steyer in the cut
ExodusNirvana
Change is inevitable...
So we're looking at Biden and Bernie or Biden and Warren as the Endgame
If millennials show up like 2018 and POC do, he can’t win.
Bernie’s problem is that his support is working class and diverse and he struggles with older white peoples. Warren wins the college educated progressives because of her marketing as more “sophisticated” and she’s a woman. Biden takes the white working class voters—especially the old ones. 92 percent Iowa caucus goes are white. He will have to take people away from Biden.Monmouth Iowa Poll:
Biden 28%
Warren 19%
Harris 11%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Gillibrand 2%
Yang 2%
I believe that puts Yang in. Bernie ain't looking to good with the college pollsters. Steyer in the cut
the next guy
Superstar
These polls are too scattered, can't even make a good hot take either way. Holler at me at December.
People are conflating national and state polls. State polls aren’t all that scattered if you trust the pollsters.
At this point I give Trump 80% odds of winning.
He'll lose the popular vote by a bigger margin but the people against him don't live in the right states. Plus people on the left always have some excuse to not vote and I doubt next year will be different. Not saying Trump is unbeatable but it's his election to lose at this point.
Um...did you just miss what happened in Mixhigan 2018? If Detroit votes he will lose. If Milwaukee votes he will lose. Same for Pennsylvania.
dora_da_destroyer
Master Baker
Too early to call a final two. I don’t even know if we will get to a final two. It’s going to be a 3-4 way battle until the end IMO, which lets see how much damage that does.
Kamala will be bankrolled like Butti, especially when he’s forced to fall back. I don’t see her dropping out. I think Warren or Bernie might drop to consolidate bases if one of them really lags behind or to ward off Biden/Harris.
The field needs to be down to no more than 6 by end of year. The candidates need space to really separate themselves as individuals in early 2020 instead of being lumped into factions with 3-4 other people.
80% is too high. It's 51-49 IMO. He's the incumbent but he hasn't expanded his base. He's polarizing. He's not particularly popular.
Like @No1 said, its not like he dominated in 2016 to win. It's less than 80,000 votes in 3 states. The Dems did better in 2018 in those states. Trump isn't overly popular in the Midwest. If he had an approval ratings in the mid 50s, then yes, I'd say he has a 60-65% chance of winning. But he's routinely around 40% and on high end at 45%.
Obama was around 52% approval on election day 2012.