2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

acri1

acri1

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No1 said:
Um...did you just miss what happened in Mixhigan 2018? If Detroit votes he will lose. If Milwaukee votes he will lose. Same for Pennsylvania.
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Probably, but those are some pretty big "ifs". I'm sure at least some of the Dem base will be unhappy with whoever wins the primary and stay home. Not to mention voter suppression and shyt.

After 2016 I refuse to give anybody the benefit of the doubt. :ufdup:

FAH1223 said:
80% is too high. It's 51-49 IMO. He's the incumbent but he hasn't expanded his base. He's polarizing. He's not particularly popular.

Like @No1 said, its not like he dominated in 2016 to win. It's less than 80,000 votes in 3 states. The Dems did better in 2018 in those states. Trump isn't overly popular in the Midwest. If he had an approval ratings in the mid 50s, then yes, I'd say he has a 60-65% chance of winning. But he's routinely around 40% and on high end at 45%.

Obama was around 52% approval on election day 2012.
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Republicans have an electoral advantage, they don't have to be as popular as a Dem has to be to win. Unfair but true.

Trump's approval rating now is about the same as it was when he got elected. Dems can win but only if people who didn't vote in 2016 show up in large numbers. Trump having a mediocre approval rating isn't enough.

There's also what I'd call the "Gillum Effect", ie. people who are going to vote for Trump but don't admit it to pollsters for whatever reason.
 
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acri1 said:
At this point I give Trump 80% odds of winning.

He'll lose the popular vote by a bigger margin but the people against him don't live in the right states. Plus people on the left always have some excuse to not vote and I doubt next year will be different. Not saying Trump is unbeatable but it's his election to lose at this point.
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80% though? It’s still a tossup to me this early on.
 
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Mephistopheles said:
80% though? It’s still a tossup to me this early on.
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He's an incumbent, so that automatically makes him the favorite IMO unless he's <40%. :yeshrug:

Bush's approval in 2004 wasn't much higher than Trump's now and he got re-elected. And even won the popular vote.
 
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acri1 said:
Probably, but those are some pretty big "ifs". I'm sure at least some of the Dem base will be unhappy with whoever wins the primary and stay home. Not to mention voter suppression and shyt.

After 2016 I refuse to give anybody the benefit of the doubt. :ufdup:



Republicans have an electoral advantage, they don't have to be as popular as a Dem has to be to win. Unfair but true.

Trump's approval rating now is about the same as it was when he got elected. Dems can win but only if people who didn't vote in 2016 show up in large numbers. Trump having a mediocre approval rating isn't enough.

There's also what I'd call the "Gillum Effect", ie. people who are going to vote for Trump but don't admit it to pollsters for whatever reason.
Click to expand...

I'm not a big believer in the early polls. But the Dems turned out for a midterm. The GOP did too but the Dems were larger in turnout. Minnesota has the highest turnout in the nation and the GOP got crushed statewide. Trump nearly won Minnesota. It will not be that close next year.

If Dems turned out for a midterm, you best believe they will turnout next year. Now, the concern like you rightly point out is if it will be in the right spots. But by all indications, the Dem chairs of WI, MI, and PA aren't fukking around. They are contacting voters and registering people as we speak. The nominee isn't going to abandon the Midwest.

Even Iowa isn't so far gone. Obama won it twice and it swung bigly to Trump. But again, he hasn't expanded his support and his approvals have gone down since the inauguration.

Trump's strategy is to make the Dem nominee unpopular as he did with Hillary. That's it. She had a favorability rating of 43% on election day. His was 38%. He barely won.
 
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acri1 said:
He's an incumbent, so that automatically makes him the favorite IMO unless he's <40%. :yeshrug:

Bush's approval in 2004 wasn't much higher than Trump's now and he got re-elected.
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I can’t remember what Bush approval rating was but I think it was higher than Trump now. Even if it was only 3 or 4 points higher that’s very significant.

Trump has way higher negatives than 1st term Bush. Something like 54% of people disapprove. So I think you can expect a higher turnout just based off how :scust: a lot people are with his 1st term. We have to see if the Dems put up a quality nominee and how they do in the campaign though.
 
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acri1 said:
He's an incumbent, so that automatically makes him the favorite IMO unless he's <40%. :yeshrug:

Bush's approval in 2004 wasn't much higher than Trump's now and he got re-elected. And even won the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Bush's approval ratings were higher than Trump in 2004. Despite a dip in Spring of 2004, he was in the 50s routinely across the election race. And he himself could have lost the election if the fukkery with Ohio's voting machines didn't happen. Kerry was close to winning the electoral college.

Trump hasn't been anywhere near the 50s during his entire term!!!

1920px-George_W_Bush_approval_ratings_with_events.svg.png
 
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