Thread by @RachelBitecofer: Trump is enjoying the "highest" approval ratings of his term from the "rally around the flag effect: BUT they are in still in the high 40s,…
One thing you should know is that we are at the very beginning of the infection crisis here in the U.S., even in NYC. We should be hitting peak shytshow in mid-April, about the time DT thought we'd be repacking pews but we really don't know bc even though we now lead the world in
infections, we still not able to do widespread testing, so we aren't sure if our cool spots are actually cool spots or just spots being under tested. It is STILL not the case that anyone can get a test and many who have taken a test are waiting 10 days or more for results.
In addition, the damage to the economy, at this point is abstract. I won't call it theoretical, bc its not, it is tangible, but for many people, it is still abstract. One month from now, it will be tangible. As will be reports of the key decisions made by Trump & the Admin such
the decision to not respond aggressively in Jan. and the continued refusal to invoke the Defense Production Act w would allow the Fed gov to direct companies to produce PPEs, vents, and other critical care materials, bypass patents (which is holding back the voluntary effort) &
perhaps even more imp, take over the country's supply chain of PPEs and vents and other critical care products which would allow them to be distributed where they are needed, when they are needed, in a way that maximizes the number of people who can be saved. Currently, vents are
sitting unused in some places while in others, like NYC, doctors are attempting to keep multiple patients alive on 1 vent, something only seen in mass casualty events. States are forced into bidding wars w each other & w the fed gov for supplies. The DPA simply MUST BE invoked.
Not invoking it is negligent. I can't imagine any other POTUS not doing this when they know people will die bc of a lack of access to these machines. But, he seems hellbent to do it this way, forcing the states into some crazy Darwin "survival of the fittest" system.
Let's take a look at just how weak Trump's "rally around the flag" effect really is. Here is GWB's after 9/11 & here is some imp context, Bush was VERY contentious up until that Sept morning bc of the issue in the 2000 election & the way the election was decided. As I said in an
earlier thread, had 9/11 never happened, it is my belief that the 2002 midterms would have produced a significant negative partisanship effect, and of course, the entire context of the 2004 prez election would have been diff. But Bush showed tremendous leadership & no matter what
you might think of his actions 3 months later, those 1st 3 months he did an excellent job of directing the nation through its national grief. Too be fair, as I've pointed out numerous times, mass polarization was just beginning to register in 2001, so there was more elasticity in
public opinion back then too, but if I was to handicap it down to 2020 polarization leves- Bush is still hitting the 80s on approval right after 9/11. I have, many times, tried to remind people that the POTUS Trump most emulates is Carter, bc other than Carter, Trump is the most
disliked prez to ever run for reelection. Johnson was that disliked but had the good sense to quit. But not Carter & not Trump. But looking at this graph, in the sunset of 79', the Iran Hostage crisis actually gave Carter reason to hope- giving him a more than 20pt RATF effect!
But, as you can see, that RATF effect was temp, it wore off, bc the event happened, and then Carter had to deal w it. Right now for Trump we're just getting through the 1st quarter of the event happening. This will be a slo-mo train wreck, and like usual, he has set himself up in
the very worst way possible by telling everyone that it will all be magically over before it even fully begins. Just like he told all of us the 31 cases would go to 15 and then to 0 bc the virus would magically disappear. Trump is not a strategic man, if he was, he'd manage
expectations in such a way as to not ensure no matter what happens, it will always be worse than what he said would happen. Likely, it's going to be a lot worse. Eventually, average Americans, the ones who aren't following news, who don't understand what he should be doing but
isn't, those people WILL catch up. That said, just like the RATF effect was fairly inelastic, I expect its erosion will be too. In the end Trump's likely to come out of this, in summer say, worse off politically than he was pre-crisis, but not as bad as the eco fundamental models
will estimate bc hyperpartisnahip & polarization should help him maintain a pretty robust floor. Like I said in the forecast, watch for erosion of support among Rs, who have consistently come in at 90/10 approve. Until & unless that breakdown starts to erode, Trump's floor is 43.
