'18 Midterms: Dems win House by largest midterm raw vote margin ever

Bleed The Freak

Bleed The Freak

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dh86 said:
You can’t that simply compare a state wide election to a presidential election. Obama won Florida twice. Abrams got remarkably close to winning. I understand close doesn’t count, but it sure does as a predictive quality. Obama was able to play the media game to give him A+ name recognition overnight and was able to significantly improve voter turnout when he was on the ballot. If that black man or woman can reach the emotional psyche like Obama did and make a presidential election into a ‘moment’, then it changes voter turnout and transforms what we know. What you typed describes both John Kerry & John Edwards.
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A few things.

Abrams and Gillum ain't Obama. And that's not a slander to them.

Obama wasn't running against a raging racist candidate that brought out Neo Nazi's.

To have a shot against this environment you need to peel off the folks you lost in Ohio , Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Rolling out a gun control progressive who rages on TV screaming about shythole countries or calls Trump a sexist all day is a fool's errand.

Good luck rolling out Abrams or Gillum or Booker or Harris and Warren in bumblefukk rural Iowa, Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
 
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dh86

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Rashaddw said:
A few things.

Abrams and Gullim ain't Obama. And that's not a slander to them.

Obama wasn't running against a raging racist candidate that brought out Neo Nazi's.

To have a shot against this environment you need to peel off the folks you lost in Ohio , Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Rolling out a gun control progressive who rages on TV screaming about shythole countries or calls Trump a sexist all day is a fool's errand.
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If Obama ran against Trump in 2012, we wouldn’t have seen anything but an Obama landslide. I also think you’re ignoring all of the women that got elected yesterday. In my area, Stevens and Slotkin got elected in two very gerrymandered wealthy/rural districts. Democrats have won governor seats, over 1.4 million regained voting rights in Florida along with those emigrating from PR. The electorate is rapidly changing and whoever that can energize the youth (especially young women) to show up to the polls, changes the calculus you gave in mind. I remember the first election I voted in, 2004. John Kerry was told to use his Vietnam experience to co-opt Bush lead in ‘national security’ and be pro war but “the right way”. How did the profusely anti war democrats take that? They didn’t show up. Kerry lived in the 1990s. Lost.
 
Bleed The Freak

Bleed The Freak

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dh86 said:
If Obama ran against Trump in 2012, we wouldn’t have seen anything but an Obama landslide. I also think you’re ignoring all of the women that got elected yesterday. In my area, Stevens and Slotkin got elected in two very gerrymandered wealthy/rural districts. Democrats have won governor seats, over 1.4 million regained voting rights in Florida along with those emigrating from PR. The electorate is rapidly changing and whoever that can energize the youth (especially young women) to show up to the polls, changes the calculus you gave in mind. I remember the first election I voted in, 2004. John Kerry was told to use his Vietnam experience to co-opt Bush lead in ‘national security’ and be pro war but “the right way”. How did the profusely anti war democrats take that? They didn’t show up. Kerry lived in the 1990s. Lost.
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We can play the IF game until we're blue in the face the past is the past in the environment that we're living in right now anybody that's a black female, woman or black male against Trump not named Obama is going to get killed.

Obama is Ali or Jordan. Once in a lifetime. You don't have that so you gotta deal with the 94 Rockets or prime Larry Holmes.

This is what will happen a year from now.

 
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acri1

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So what's the story of the night?

Pros:

Dems take the House
Dems take a reasonable amount of governorships (particularly nice that Walker got the boot)
Legal weed in my state :smoker:

Cons:

Rethugs pick up a couple Senate Seats
Dems lost a few governors races they should've won (Ohio, I'm looking at you)
Fukking Florida :beli:



Not terrible I guess but I'm heated about Gillum. Still need to make that Florida unappreciation thread.
 
Cave Savage

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GodinDaFlesh said:
I know it's easy to blame racism and it certainly had an impact, but Obama won that state twice. A Dem can't win in FL by attacking Trump, in the same way Manchin would never win in WV by attacking Trump. Dude basically ran a national campaign against Trump when he should have just stuck with Florida issues and ignored Trump. :yeshrug:
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Right. Trump has all the free time in the world to campaign and try to turn out rednecks for races like these.

That being said, even though Manchin has made the right moves, he still only won by 3 points (way less than the polls had him leading by a couple months ago). Trump was successful in turning out rednecks for some of the senator and governor's races. The bright side is that I do think most of the Midwest (as in the states Obama won in 2012) can be won by the Dems again. I really never bought into that whole "working class whites in the Midwest" thing.
 
Bleed The Freak

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Cave Savage said:
Right. Trump has all the free time in the world to campaign and try to turn out rednecks for races like these.

That being said, even though Manchin has made the right moves, he still only won by 3 points (way less than the polls had him leading by a couple months ago). Trump was successful in turning out rednecks for some of the senator and governor's races. The bright side is that I do think most of the Midwest (as in the states Obama won in 2012) can be won by the Dems again. I really never bought into that whole "working class whites in the Midwest" thing.
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To beat Trump (especially in states that like him) avoid mentioning him and focus locally.

Whitmer
Evers
Conor Lamb

Do not let national ambition blind you to your local demographics. Many have Trump supporters. They all won by putting their head down and grinding locally.
 
Cave Savage

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Rashaddw said:
To beat Trump (especially in states that like him) avoid mentioning him and focus locally.

Whitmer
Evers
Conor Lamb

Do not let national ambition blind you to your local demographics. Many have Trump supporters. They all won by putting their head down and grinding locally.
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I agree. But sadly I think it's more difficult now that Trump has turned a segment of the white voters into hyperpartisans. Joe Manchin is pretty popular in WV but only won by 3 points. He barely badmouthed Trump and he's the most conservative Dem senator. Heidi Heitkamp lost by 10 points and she's comparable to Joe Manchin. I know that a bunch of Native voters were suppressed, though.

But then again also don't think Ohio and PA are anywhere near as conservative was WV and other redneck states like that.

But yeah, the following things are bad for Dems trying to win red states: criticizing Trump too much, being in favor of gun control, being overly in favor of illegal immigration, talking about LGBTQ stuff too much, etc.
 
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