DrHackenbush
Happy wars/sad love songs
Read this on tradingview yesterday
The Fed took sweeping action to blunt the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, cutting its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to near zero and boosting bond holdings by $700 billion. It will also let banks borrow from the discount window for as long as 90 days and reduce reserve requirement ratios to zero percent. Along with other major central banks, it also lowered the rate on standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 25 basis points. Rates will stay near zero "until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals," the FOMC said in a statement.
The RBNZ moved first in what'll probably be a week of interest rate cuts in Asia. New Zealand's central bank trimmed its benchmark to 0.25% from 1% due to Covid-19. It will stay at that level for at least 12 months, and QE would be more likely than further reductions, the bank said. Policy makers in Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan all meet Thursday. The first three are expected to ease, and there's a chance of action in the fourth after 14 quarters of holds. On Friday, the PBOC may take 10 basis points off its one-year loan prime rate.
The world is turning in on itself. The U.S. extended its travel ban to include Britain and Ireland, Spain imposed a lockdown, Austria banned all gatherings, Norway as good as sealed itself off from outsiders and France closed cafes and restaurants. Australia said all arrivals must self-isolate for two weeks; it banned cruise ships and prohibited gatherings of 500 people or more. In Europe, Spain's cases jumped 35% and the death toll more than doubled. Switzerland had a 62% increase in infections. Deaths in the Netherlands rose by eight to 20, while confirmed cases increased by 176 to 1,135. In Iran, deaths rose to 724 and infections to 13,
U.S. stocks surged more than 9% late Friday. The relief may be temporary. While governments and central banks around the world announce economic-stimulus measures—and with Australia and South Korea calling for G-20 talks—economists say virus-triggered closures and national lockdowns are making a global recession all but unavoidable. That means more turbulent markets in the week ahead, gains for havens such as U.S. Treasuries, the dollar and the yen, and more nervousness in stocks, commodities and emerging markets. In an ominous sign, Mideast markets fell on Sunday despite news of new regional stimulus plans.
Apple closed its stores outside of Greater China until March 27 and is moving to remote work in order to help reduce the spread of coronavirus. Apple has nearly 460 locations across the world outside of China, including about 270 stores in the U.S. Walmart is cutting its operating hours. Nike shut down all of its stores in the U.S. and Western Europe.
China's industrial output and retail sales due Monday probably took a hit in the first two months of the year, with consensus for drops of 3% and 4.0%, respectively, from the same period in 2019. Fixed asset investment may drop by 2%. Consensus is for Japanese core machine orders–a leading indicator–to have dropped 1.0% in January from December, when they sank 12.5%.
Global oil demand is in free-fall, heading for a record annual drop . Goldman Sachs is now forecasting that consumption will contract by more than 4 million barrels a day every month from February to April. Pierre Andurand estimates a decline of 10 million barrels a day in this quarter and even beyond. Plunging demand and the oil price war have prompted Saudi Aramco to slash planned spending this year by as much as 24% from a year earlier.
Airlines took drastic measures to weather the collapse in travel. Delta cut seating capacity, grounded as many as 300 planes and froze hiring. Lufthansa suspended its dividend and the German government weighed purchasing a stake, a person familiar said. Norwegian Air plans to park 40% of its fleet through May and lay off about half its workforce. The White House is discussing temporarily allowing U.S. airlines to keep some taxes
China will on Monday release new home prices for February. If they decline, it will be the first drop since April 2015, when the property market was coming out of a yearlong slump. Developers were forced to close display units last month to avoid large gatherings, and half of showrooms were still shuttered at month-end. Prices gained 0.27% in January
BTC is fukked bros. I love it in principle but its probably the most speculative asset in history. If you think anyone's gonna spend 4.5k on a bitcoin after reading the above youre crazy.
The Fed took sweeping action to blunt the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, cutting its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to near zero and boosting bond holdings by $700 billion. It will also let banks borrow from the discount window for as long as 90 days and reduce reserve requirement ratios to zero percent. Along with other major central banks, it also lowered the rate on standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 25 basis points. Rates will stay near zero "until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals," the FOMC said in a statement.
The RBNZ moved first in what'll probably be a week of interest rate cuts in Asia. New Zealand's central bank trimmed its benchmark to 0.25% from 1% due to Covid-19. It will stay at that level for at least 12 months, and QE would be more likely than further reductions, the bank said. Policy makers in Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan all meet Thursday. The first three are expected to ease, and there's a chance of action in the fourth after 14 quarters of holds. On Friday, the PBOC may take 10 basis points off its one-year loan prime rate.
The world is turning in on itself. The U.S. extended its travel ban to include Britain and Ireland, Spain imposed a lockdown, Austria banned all gatherings, Norway as good as sealed itself off from outsiders and France closed cafes and restaurants. Australia said all arrivals must self-isolate for two weeks; it banned cruise ships and prohibited gatherings of 500 people or more. In Europe, Spain's cases jumped 35% and the death toll more than doubled. Switzerland had a 62% increase in infections. Deaths in the Netherlands rose by eight to 20, while confirmed cases increased by 176 to 1,135. In Iran, deaths rose to 724 and infections to 13,
U.S. stocks surged more than 9% late Friday. The relief may be temporary. While governments and central banks around the world announce economic-stimulus measures—and with Australia and South Korea calling for G-20 talks—economists say virus-triggered closures and national lockdowns are making a global recession all but unavoidable. That means more turbulent markets in the week ahead, gains for havens such as U.S. Treasuries, the dollar and the yen, and more nervousness in stocks, commodities and emerging markets. In an ominous sign, Mideast markets fell on Sunday despite news of new regional stimulus plans.
Apple closed its stores outside of Greater China until March 27 and is moving to remote work in order to help reduce the spread of coronavirus. Apple has nearly 460 locations across the world outside of China, including about 270 stores in the U.S. Walmart is cutting its operating hours. Nike shut down all of its stores in the U.S. and Western Europe.
China's industrial output and retail sales due Monday probably took a hit in the first two months of the year, with consensus for drops of 3% and 4.0%, respectively, from the same period in 2019. Fixed asset investment may drop by 2%. Consensus is for Japanese core machine orders–a leading indicator–to have dropped 1.0% in January from December, when they sank 12.5%.
Global oil demand is in free-fall, heading for a record annual drop . Goldman Sachs is now forecasting that consumption will contract by more than 4 million barrels a day every month from February to April. Pierre Andurand estimates a decline of 10 million barrels a day in this quarter and even beyond. Plunging demand and the oil price war have prompted Saudi Aramco to slash planned spending this year by as much as 24% from a year earlier.
Airlines took drastic measures to weather the collapse in travel. Delta cut seating capacity, grounded as many as 300 planes and froze hiring. Lufthansa suspended its dividend and the German government weighed purchasing a stake, a person familiar said. Norwegian Air plans to park 40% of its fleet through May and lay off about half its workforce. The White House is discussing temporarily allowing U.S. airlines to keep some taxes
China will on Monday release new home prices for February. If they decline, it will be the first drop since April 2015, when the property market was coming out of a yearlong slump. Developers were forced to close display units last month to avoid large gatherings, and half of showrooms were still shuttered at month-end. Prices gained 0.27% in January
BTC is fukked bros. I love it in principle but its probably the most speculative asset in history. If you think anyone's gonna spend 4.5k on a bitcoin after reading the above youre crazy.
This isn't a normal recession. BTC or any part of the economy isn't built for a pandemic. If this passes the markets will pump and so will BTC. Just wait it out and don't buy the dip until there's signs of relief.
