I wake up every morning, and see subs filled with "forecasts" and "price analyses." As an actual paid analyst, I chuckle when I see them.
They cherry pick, or worse--pick arbitrary timeframes--to measure a "trend" and estimate if a price is "breaking" from that trend. I can deliver practically infinite variations of equally defensible "trends" by changing the scope of my analysis, and without any reason to assume one set of data is more credible than another it is all drivel and meaningless.
Even worse are the analyses based on "candle formations." No, those "formations" don't mean jack shyt, especially when for practically every "formation" there's an equally probable inversion of the same formation that "predicts" the opposite of your "assessment." That shyt might as well be the astrology of financial analysis, and anyone worth their salt has admitted those patterns are wrong as often as they're right, and thus pointless.
But the absolute worst are the hot-hand-fallacy bullshytters who say things like "every time we dipped below the 100 day average, we doubled in value soon after" or some shyt like that. The nature of markets, especially speculative markets like crypto, is those things will be true until they're not. Eventually, speculative activity will move in the opposite direction and cause a lasting crash. Nothing in past crashes has enough in common to today to warrant a reasonable comparison.
In general, people need to remember this about humans: our intelligence evolved at least partially because of our need to hunt other animals, and the best skill for hunting is pattern recognition. As such, humans are predisposed to view patterns everywhere, and derive meaning even if there isn't any to be had.
Always ask yourself: "am I just looking at a pattern, or do I have some legitimate reason to think that x, y, or z is going to happen based on new information?"
Any "analysis" based on patterns is about as credible as the "spoopy snake" meme.
Edit: Thanks for the gold! Usually I only expect ire when I post a comment. My last word to anyone reading this is to remember that opinions are like a$$holes; everyone's got one. We live in an age where amateurs get almost as much exposure in our lives as the experts, because we are more connected than ever before. That's not a bad thing, but it does mean that we need to be harder on ourselves to be critical thinkers and not let ourselves fall into information bubbles.
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