World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg re-signs with Nationals (7 years $245M)

[Remote]

The circumstance doesn’t negate the fact it’s a bad contract. If you take a risk and lose, you effectively made a bad decision. Not being able to find an insurance company to underwrite the contract was a sign.

I’d rather have someone underperform on a bad deal (so I can trade or buy him out), than someone with a career ending injury that only played 8 games. It’s literally wasting $245 million with nothing to show for it.

That's actually not true.
If you make a decision that you believe to be positive expected value and it fails, you still made the right choice.

If you're playing blackjack and you have 17 and you stand. And the dealer gets 20 and you lose...you still made the right decision in a loss.

Sure, Stephen Strasburg only playing 8 games looks awful. It IS awful. But this was the worst outcome in a range of outcomes that were possible with this deal. If you could simulate this whole thing 10,000 times, how many times does Strasburg only play 8 games? 1 time out of that 10,000? 3 times out of 10,000?

But when you gave him that contract....the true risk wasn't so much in the money but in the years.

Strasburg was the best pitcher in the game when he signed that deal (or certainly top 3).

The other guys I listed above (Heyward, Lindor, Kemp, Crawford)....they weren't anywhere near even the Top 10 overall position players in the game.

I'll put it another way...
If you spend 12 million dollars on an F1 racecar and in the very 1st race there's a wreck and it's destroyed, that's not a "bad deal".
If you spend 1 million dollars on a Honda Civic and it races for 6 years with zero issues, that's a horrible deal.

 

[Raquinotj]

That's actually not true.
If you make a decision that you believe to be positive expected value and it fails, you still made the right choice.

If you're playing blackjack and you have 17 and you stand. And the dealer gets 20 and you lose...you still made the right decision in a loss.

Sure, Stephen Strasburg only playing 8 games looks awful. It IS awful. But this was the worst outcome in a range of outcomes that were possible with this deal. If you could simulate this whole thing 10,000 times, how many times does Strasburg only play 8 games? 1 time out of that 10,000? 3 times out of 10,000?

But when you gave him that contract....the true risk wasn't so much in the money but in the years.

Strasburg was the best pitcher in the game when he signed that deal (or certainly top 3).

The other guys I listed above (Heyward, Lindor, Kemp, Crawford)....they weren't anywhere near even the Top 10 overall position players in the game.

I'll put it another way...
If you spend 12 million dollars on an F1 racecar and in the very 1st race there's a wreck and it's destroyed, that's not a "bad deal".
If you spend 1 million dollars on a Honda Civic and it races for 6 years with zero issues, that's a horrible deal.

Ehhhh he got hot at the right time and was the World Series MVP. As far as the best pitcher in baseball I can name you more than 3 guys at the time better than him. He wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team. Scherzer was. He wasn’t better than DeGroom, Verlander or Cole either. He wasn’t even better than Chris Sale.

3 all stars and a sub 3.00ERA one season in his career in the NL don’t even put you in the top 10.

 

[Remote]

Ehhhh he got hot at the right time and was the World Series MVP. As far as the best pitcher in baseball I can name you more than 3 guys at the time better than him. He wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team. Scherzer was. He wasn’t better than DeGroom, Verlander or Cole either.

In 2019 the only pitchers with a better FIP than Strasburg were Cole, Scherzer and deGrom. And it was fairly close between all of them.
I mean if you want to say Strasburg was 4th and not 3rd....you got it.

 

[Raquinotj]

In 2019 the only pitchers with a better FIP than Strasburg were Cole, Scherzer and deGrom. And it was fairly close between all of them.
I mean if you want to say Strasburg was 4th and not 3rd....you got it.

You talking only about the 2019 season and FIP it’s just one stat. To be considered the best pitcher or one of the best in any sport you need more consistency and longevity. He might’ve been the most talented and fooled the front office with 33 starts and his playoff run in 2019, Again held it up for one season(his opt out season) got hot at the perfect time and Scott Boras did what he does.

I look at him as the Zion Williamson(sort of because Strasburg made it healthy for a championship run) of baseball, when healthy they’re both very good, but I wouldn’t call them one of the best because they’re always unavailable.

 

[Remote]

You talking only about the 2019 season and FIP it’s just one stat. To be considered the best pitcher or of the best in any sport you need more consistency and longevity. He might’ve been the most talented and fooled the front office with 33 starts and his playoff run in 2019, Again held it up for one season(his opt out season) got hot at the perfect time and Scott Boras did what he does.

I look at him as the Zion Williamson(sort of because Strasburg made it healthy for a championship run) of baseball, when healthy they’re both very good, but I wouldn’t call them one of the best because they’re always unavailable.

You're talking about things that don't particularly matter. And by the way, xFIP is better that just about any other individual pitching stat there is. Except for maybe SIERA. So no, it's not "just one stat".

I'll give you that Strasburg maybe wasn't the single best pitcher in baseball. Let's say he was top 5.
Okay.

You just won a World Series with your franchise pitcher and the face of your team outperforming Justin Verlander TWICE in 7 games.
He threw a career high 209 regular season innings.
He's 29/30 years old and you make a commitment to him.

It's either a bad contract at that exact moment. Or it isn't.
Sure, the health concerns are always a real thing with any pitcher. But that's not specific to Strasburg. That's applicable to Kershaw, Cole, anyone.

If Strasburg was the 15th best pitcher and got 245M, that's a bad contract. Not being 5th and getting 245M.

I think guys in here are making the mistake thinking that the outcome justifies the decision making process. That's just not always the case.

 

[Da_Eggman]

This won’t end well

 

[Heavy_Handz]

might be one of the worst contracts in sports history

7 years 245m - 8 games

That’s my WS MVP