Why Video Game consoles are going extinct

winb83

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Interesting non bias (mostly) and (mostly) objective look on consoles, their history and the potential future.


Y'all know my stance on this.



TBH we've almost reached the level that we don't need game consoles anymore. Within this console generation phones will have more than reached a point they're good enough to run AAA games. Eventually most legacy businesses run their course and the problem with consoles is they require a purchase of dedicated hardware to use. There are a lot of people not willing to part with $400-$500 for a dedicated box that plays games.

People will point to the Switch and PS5 sales but to that I say nothing to this day has outsold the PS2 in the home console market. Once these things get past 100 million and especially into the teens their sales trail off. Most of them can't hit a pace that lets them reach those numbers while the tech is still relevant.

If you can't grow your install base then the only way to make more money and grow is to raise prices which makes it even harder to grow your install base.
 

Carl Tethers

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Breh, are you named after THE Chad Warden? Cuz that video was a top 5 troll of all time :wow:



ballin-chad-warden.gif

P S Triple
 

Dorian Breh

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TBH we've almost reached the level that we don't need game consoles anymore. Within this console generation phones will have more than reached a point they're good enough to run AAA games. Eventually most legacy businesses run their course and the problem with consoles is they require a purchase of dedicated hardware to use. There are a lot of people not willing to part with $400-$500 for a dedicated box that plays games.

People will point to the Switch and PS5 sales but to that I say nothing to this day has outsold the PS2 in the home console market. Once these things get past 100 million and especially into the teens their sales trail off. Most of them can't hit a pace that lets them reach those numbers while the tech is still relevant.

If you can't grow your install base then the only way to make more money and grow is to raise prices which makes it even harder to grow your install base.
It's a myth that the addressable market for subscription based gaming is in the billions of people. Even Netflix has plateaued at around 250 million subscribers and that's passive entertainment.
 

Gizmo_Duck

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It's a myth that the addressable market for subscription based gaming is in the billions of people. Even Netflix has plateaued at around 250 million subscribers and that's passive entertainment.

Yep. There’s a very low ceiling for subscription gaming. Most games are just not accessible for a large group of people. Even games that require one finger to play still require your undivided attention to consume and spend money in, and even if you are the kind of person that loves the idea of ‘unlimited games’ its one, maybe two people per house hold.

Unlike streaming music and video where everyone in the house uses it or loans it out to people. Gaming just doesn’t have the same draw.
 

Forsaken

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TBH we've almost reached the level that we don't need game consoles anymore. Within this console generation phones will have more than reached a point they're good enough to run AAA games. Eventually most legacy businesses run their course and the problem with consoles is they require a purchase of dedicated hardware to use. There are a lot of people not willing to part with $400-$500 for a dedicated box that plays games.

People will point to the Switch and PS5 sales but to that I say nothing to this day has outsold the PS2 in the home console market. Once these things get past 100 million and especially into the teens their sales trail off. Most of them can't hit a pace that lets them reach those numbers while the tech is still relevant.

If you can't grow your install base then the only way to make more money and grow is to raise prices which makes it even harder to grow your install base.
Realtime graphics still have a long way to go. When they start making CGI movies with cellphone processors then I will believe it.

Consoles are actually dirty cheap now. They are cheaper than cellphones. Console gaming will always be a smaller segment of the gaming market. That doesn't mean companies are going to abandon billions of dollars in total addressable market. I expect to see more timed console exclusives that go to PC after a year or 2.
 

Dorian Breh

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Yep. There’s a very low ceiling for subscription gaming. Most games are just not accessible for a large group of people. Even games that require one finger to play still require your undivided attention to consume and spend money in, and even if you are the kind of person that loves the idea of ‘unlimited games’ its one, maybe two people per house hold.

Unlike streaming music and video where everyone in the house uses it or loans it out to people. Gaming just doesn’t have the same draw.
A console also offers many savings compared to a flat $25-30 a month subscription. You've already heard PC players talk about how Steam sales bring down the cost of PC gaming, and in the same way, so do PSN sales (not to mention physical games). You can buy six month old games for peanuts instead of maintaining three or four publishers' subscriptions where you won't even have anything to show for it once your sub runs out.
 

Gizmo_Duck

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A console also offers many savings compared to a flat $25-30 a month subscription. You've already heard PC players talk about how Steam sales bring down the cost of PC gaming, and in the same way, so do PSN sales (not to mention physical games). You can buy six month old games for peanuts instead of maintaining three or four publishers' subscriptions where you won't even have anything to show for it once your sub runs out.

Consoles also funds first party game development. So, regardless the two companies that sell them in huge quantities aren’t going to stop anytime soon
 
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