When Tampering w/ a Titan of Probabilities; The Bill Comes Due, Always | Bills @ Titans MNF

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  • King Henry Finna Send Dem Boys 2 The Astral Plane

    Votes: 7 63.6%

  • Josh Allen Reigns Supreme

    Votes: 4 36.4%
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B

broller

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Gil Scott-Heroin said:
The field goal draws the game level; the field goal is actual points. Simply picking up that first down doesn't equate to points; the first down isn't actual points. It would be entirely different if that half-a-yard was all they needed to score points. This is why I say, the most likely outcome of that drive was going to end up in a field goal opportunity, whether that be on the initial play, or if they did pick up that half-a-yard, needing to take the field goal two plays later.

This is why it made the most sense to take the the field goal on that play because that opportunity was a 100% given, whereas they only had a 75%< probability of getting that field goal opportunity again. Why risk that, when they were most likely going to take a field goal, eventually?

It made the most mathematical sense to pull the trigger on the field goal on that play.

Now, in terms of the context of how the game was going, and how the Bills had been performing in the redzone this season, that too indicated that taking the field goal on that play was the right move. The Bills are one of the worse redzone teams this season and they completed less than 50% of their redzone opportunities in this game. Basically, they were unlikely to score a touchdown on that drive, which again, means they would've still ended up taking the field goal a couple plays later.

In terms of the most-likely result of the drive:

100% field goal opportunity on that play
75%< field goal opportunity a couple plays later.

It's a no-brainer.
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In the context of that game the Titans were scoring quite easily on the Bills D. And Henry generally gets better as the game goes on. That's what you're not taking into account
 
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Gil Scott-Heroin

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broller said:
In the context of that game the Titans were scoring quite easily on the Bills D. And Henry generally gets better as the game goes on. That's what you're not taking into account
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Oh, don't you worry, I'm talking into account things that you haven't even thought about.

As I need to reiterate, the most-likely outcome of that drive was going to be a field-goal opportunity. The Bills were unlikely to score a touchdown on that drive; mathematically, and in terms of their actual play. Which means, whatever happens after that point is inconsequential, because both options lead to the same conditions of a tie-game. If something is most-likely to occur, then in this context, you take it when there's a higher probability of you been given the opportunity, and there's nothing greater than 100%.
 
Benjamin Sisko

Benjamin Sisko

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Cards should be number one now in power rankings across the board. Thanks Bills for that dumbass call :salute:
 
phillycavsfan

phillycavsfan

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Gil Scott-Heroin said:
The field goal draws the game level; the field goal is actual points. Simply picking up that first down doesn't equate to points; the first down isn't actual points. It would be entirely different if that half-a-yard was all they needed to score points. This is why I say, the most likely outcome of that drive was going to end up in a field goal opportunity, whether that be on the initial play, or if they did pick up that half-a-yard, needing to take the field goal two plays later.

This is why it made the most sense to take the the field goal on that play because that opportunity was a 100% given, whereas they only had a 75%< probability of getting that field goal opportunity again. Why risk that, when they were most likely going to take a field goal, eventually?

It made the most mathematical sense to pull the trigger on the field goal on that play.

Now, in terms of the context of how the game was going, and how the Bills had been performing in the redzone this season, that too indicated that taking the field goal on that play was the right move. The Bills are one of the worse redzone teams this season and they completed less than 50% of their redzone opportunities in this game. Basically, they were unlikely to score a touchdown on that drive, which again, means they would've still ended up taking the field goal a couple plays later.

In terms of the most-likely result of the drive:

100% field goal opportunity on that play
75%< field goal opportunity a couple plays later.

It's a no-brainer.
Click to expand...

I don't care about points. I care about winning the game. Your problem is that you're only thinking one play ahead. Nothing in what you're saying analyzes into what was about to go down in overtime.
 
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Gil Scott-Heroin

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phillycavsfan said:
I don't care about points. I care about winning the game.
Click to expand...
And making that first down doesn't win the game. Or do you seem to think getting the first down wins the game?
phillycavsfan said:
Your problem is that you're only thinking one play ahead.
Click to expand...
I wish y'all nxggas would stop it with this nonsense. Stop trying to project your lack of inability to see the entire picture onto me.
phillycavsfan said:
Nothing in what you're saying analyzes into what was about to go down in overtime.
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This is because you're not interpreting my post properly.

What happens in overtime is inconsequential. The most-likely outcome of that drive is a field goal opportunity, because all things considered, the Bills would've unlikely scored a touchdown. Which means, the Bills were most-likely going to come to a dead-end of needing to take a field goal on that drive, which means, they're still going to have to go to overtime, regardless.

This is why because the most-likely scenario was going to lead to a field-goal opportunity, you take that opportunity when it's at its highest probability, which was the initial play, because that opportunity was 100% guaranteed. Going for the first down on that play takes that 100% field goal opportunity away and the probability drops down to 75%>.

You simulate that drive 10x and the Bills score a touchdown around about three times (that's being generous given their lack of redzone success this season and in that game), and those aren't great enough odds when you're given a 100% opportunity of a field goal. 10 out of 10 times you'll be given a field goal opportunity in this simulation, but the probability either gets taken away completely if you don't make the first down (75% chance), or if you do make the first down it decreases with every down. Going for the first down was an unnecessary risk when they were most-likely going to need to take a field goal eventually.

How many other ways do I need to explain this before it's understood?
 
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