Big Jefe
When Tampering w/ a Titan of Probabilities; The Bill Comes Due, Always | Bills @ Titans MNF
- Thread starter Trav
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Big Jefe
I fully expect for y’all to win next week too. The 2019 Chiefs are not walking through that door.1 thing dese boys gon do is play up to talent and play down to bums
There's more than 2 players on the field.
It was 4th and inches with a mobile QB against a rush defense that was 27th in DVOA before the game started. And it didn't even fail because the defense stopped him, Allen slipped.
Going for it was the OBVIOUS decision. Why give the Titans a much better shot of winning the game in overtime when you can potentially help end the game there?
For what? They couldnt stop the titans. Go for the win. Who gives a shyt.
They had better odds winning by tying up the game.
NZA
LOL
fukk OT. i agree with trying to win it.
not according to NextGen
The problem with this is, despite the conversion probability being 75%, they don't score any points by simply making the first down. It all resets, and they essentially have 1-2 plays left before they have to take the field goal.
75% probability of making the first down
98% probability of making the FG on that play
30% probability of making the first down, and then scoring a TD on the following 1-2 plays.
Because even if they ended up making the first down, the higher probability outcome on the next play would be them not getting a touchdown, and then having to settle for a FG, anyway. Basically, they risked a 75% play to end up doing the same action [kicking a FG] that they could've done on the initial play. Why would you take that risk? It's simply not worth it. You simulate that drive, and the majority of the time it's going to result in a field goal opportunity, whether it be on the initial 4th down play, or two plays later when time runs out.
You're 100% guaranteed a field-goal opportunity on that play, whereas going for the 1st down only gives you a 75% of having that same field-goal opportunity.
Not to mention, the Bills had redzone difficulties all game (completing less than 50% of their opportunities), and the Titans were giving them nothing up the middle. By the drive-percentage probabilities AND how the game was flowing for them, the right call was to take the field goal on that play.
And there's this too:
And there's this too:
DropTopDoc
20/20 Vision With my Buffs On
Slid out that win, y’all should be stomping nikkas
A field goal only (at best) ties the game and leads to a coin flip in overtime. That means a 50 percent chance of Titans getting the ball first. Titans had scored on the Bills six straight times at that point. They were having less and less success in stopping Henry, and Tannenhill was killing them in the middle of the field. Also, they're playing in Nashville.
The chance that the Titans would've scored a TD (or FG after bleeding most of the OT clock) on that first OT drive (even after the 50/50 coin flip) are much greater than Allen failing to pick up those inches against the 27th ranked rush defense.
The field goal draws the game level; the field goal is actual points. Simply picking up that first down doesn't equate to points; the first down isn't actual points. It would be entirely different if that half-a-yard was all they needed to score points. This is why I say, the most likely outcome of that drive was going to end up in a field goal opportunity, whether that be on the initial play, or if they did pick up that half-a-yard, needing to take the field goal two plays later.
This is why it made the most sense to take the the field goal on that play because that opportunity was a 100% given, whereas they only had a 75%< probability of getting that field goal opportunity again. Why risk that, when they were most likely going to take a field goal, eventually?
It made the most mathematical sense to pull the trigger on the field goal on that play.
Now, in terms of the context of how the game was going, and how the Bills had been performing in the redzone this season, that too indicated that taking the field goal on that play was the right move. The Bills are one of the worse redzone teams this season and they completed less than 50% of their redzone opportunities in this game. Basically, they were unlikely to score a touchdown on that drive, which again, means they would've still ended up taking the field goal a couple plays later.
In terms of the most-likely result of the drive:
100% field goal opportunity on that play
75%< field goal opportunity a couple plays later.
It's a no-brainer.