There is some awkward, unplanned, moody Warriors symmetry to this.
This whole thing split open during a relatively meaningless November game at Staples Center against the Clippers, then was gradually patched back together with duct tape, a few good meetings and a bunch of victories through the regular season. It was temporary, though. Everybody knew it was temporary — the Warriors just hoped it’d hold up through June.
But now, five months later, the Warriors have us all wondering if everything is set to burst apart again.
At Staples Center for Game 3 on Thursday and Game 4 on Sunday.
Against the Clippers.
For control of a first-round playoff series and, oh yeah, the continuation of a dynasty.
So that’s a long journey to essentially the same main point: Draymond Green was reckless and way too personal when he lashed out at Kevin Durant right before the overtime period of that eventual Warriors loss in November (and he got a one-game suspension for it), but Green also wasn’t making anything up there.
The chemistry of this team has been unstable from the start of this season — that’s after winning back-to-back titles — and the main factor is Durant’s lack of a commitment to the Warriors beyond this season and his teammates’ reaction to it.
This was a real issue in the locker room then, it got stormy at different intervals throughout the regular season, it calmed down when all of the main parties decided that a potential three-peat was more important than anything else and it’s an issue now as the Warriors struggle to get back onto their feet after Monday’s thunderous Game 2 giveaway at Oracle Arena.
If you’re looking for evidence of this, I’ll just offer the second half of Game 2, the blank looks inside the Warriors locker room after it, Steve Kerr’s weary sighs when talking about the collapse and the fact that two specific players disappeared quickly after the game and were unavailable to reporters — that would be Durant and Green.
The Warriors are good enough to survive this, of course, even with
DeMarcus Cousins suffering a torn quad muscle injury and likely out for the rest of the postseason. They’re good enough to blow out the Clippers in the next three games and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they did.
But there are vulnerabilities that were exposed in the second half on Monday that can’t really be fully cured this postseason; they can only be papered over the way they were papered over after the November incident.
Basically, it’s a rare team that is good enough to win big despite chemistry and injury issues. We’ll see if the 2019 Warriors are one of those teams.
Let’s go through the largest issues and injuries one by one and assess their relative threat levels to the Warriors’ title chances and what the Warriors can and can’t do to solve each of them.
DeMarcus Cousins’ torn left quad
The Warriors are calling his recovery timetable “indefinite,” but Cousins will definitely miss the rest of this series and likely the rest of the playoffs.
Effect for this series: Neutral. The Warriors took a flier by re-signing Andrew Bogut in March and now that looks like a potentially postseason-saving move. Bogut has been solid in his spot minutes so far against the Clippers. He does fewer things than Cousins, but that works with this team because what Bogut does is so valuable — rim protection on defense and ball movement and screening on offense.
Frankly put, Cousins was a luxury item for the Warriors when healthy this season and it is possible to choke on too many luxuries.
Effect for the rest of the postseason:This is a possible problem for the Warriors. Cousins’ main value was going to be lining up against the potential matchups against bigger teams like Oklahoma City, Denver, Philadelphia and Toronto, though all of those teams are struggling a bit right now, too. And if Bogut gets hurt, the Warriors would be in some major trouble at center.
Also, the Warriors always wanted Cousins to help lead the second unit, which has historically struggled to score while Curry and Durant rest. Cousins only delivered in that role sporadically, but with Bogut in and Cousins out, that unit will have to be a full-out defensive group or risk getting blown off the floor. Or Kerr might have to adjust the rotation to get Durant in at the start of the second and fourth quarters, which limits how long he can keep Durant in with Curry and Green during the first and third periods.
Effect into the summer: Neutral. The Warriors were never going to be able to pay enough to keep Cousins if he had a great playoff run and they’re not going to insult him by offering him a veteran’s minimum deal after this short-circuited stint.
My general feeling is that whether Durant stays or goes, the Warriors will have to devote most of their available money to a younger wing player then try to add a center or two on minimum deals. And that’s not what Cousins should be getting. So even if his market rate drops off the cliff for a second consecutive summer, the Warriors have done their one-time, one-season thing with Cousins.
The Warriors’ pronounced lack of depth
Effect for this series: With Bogut almost certainly in the starting lineup now, Kerr’s four-and-a-half-man bench rotation — Andre Iguodala, Kevon Looney, Shaun Livingston, Quinn Cook and Alfonzo McKinnie/Jordan Bell/Jonas Jerebko — faces an enormous mismatch against the Clippers’ surging second-teamers.
This is where Patrick McCaw, Jacob Evans and Bell were supposed to be reliable second-wave energizers … and that did not happen this season.
There’s very little the coaching staff can do now except extend the minutes of Curry, Durant, Green and Klay Thompson, which Kerr has always tried to avoid, and maybe try to align the core group more closely with Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell’s minutes off of the Clippers bench.
Effect for the rest of the postseason:This will be a continuing problem if and when the Warriors face Houston, Milwaukee, Toronto or Boston in later series. But again, there’s nothing the Warriors can do about it except hope for the best … and prepare to ride the Hamptons 5 until Curry, Green, Thompson, Durant and Iguodala can’t carry them anymore.
Effect into the summer: Obviously, so much of this hinges on Durant’s free-agent decision. It does not seem like anybody should bet on him returning to the Warriors and that would be another deep cut into their depth.
Kevin Durant’s engagement level
Effect for this series: Two stats (Durant took only eight shots in Game 2 and committed nine turnovers) don’t prove anything except that Patrick Beverley is a remarkably effective defender. But Durant didn’t fulfill his end of what I’m guessing was the Warriors’ Grand Compromise this season.
He seems to have thoughtfully accepted that Curry and Green are the central figures of everything on this team and made a point to cut back on his shooting to showcase that. But Durant is also supposed to be the Warriors’ offensive and defensive failsafe. That’s how they won the title last season and they can do it that way again this year, can’t they?
The Warriors don’t need Durant at full offensive flex all of the time, but when they get into trouble, he’s the most dangerous player in the universe. And he also can dominate on defense.
Well, he can do all that when he plays with passion. That didn’t happen in Game 2. That was mostly because of Beverley and the weird energy throughout the Warriors lineup, but the Warriors needed him and Durant has come through every other important time. Just not that time.
Effect for the rest of the postseason: If this crops up at home in Game 2 of the first round, everybody in the organization knows this is likely to be a recurring theme if the Warriors get through the Clippers and start facing better teams. Or else Durant can turn up the jets and take over an entire game or two … and I’m not sure what happens to the Grand Compromise then.
Effect into this summer: Most people in the NBA don’t expect Durant to re-sign with the Warriors no matter what happens in the playoffs. It’s the tacit bargain that I believe the Warriors’ headliners all made — hang together to give their shot for a three-peat and then if Durant leaves, he leaves with no apologies necessary. But there’s inherent tension in that, too, of course.
Lack of motivation/apathy/weariness
Effect this series, the rest of the postseason and into the summer: The holdovers from the 2015 title run have all essentially played almost an extra full season of games in the playoffs the last four-plus years and the toll is on their bodies and minds. Durant joined in July 2016 and has been a pending free agent every single season. And if you go back to his final season in Oklahoma City, that’s four straight seasons as an imminent free agent. That’s a lot of mental wear and tear. That’s a lot of time pondering the future as you try to remain in the present.
All of these guys understand that the end of this run is coming eventually. I don’t think that will come in this series, or the next, or maybe not even in the next two after that. I think they’ll win this series in five or six games and afterward they’ll talk about the wake-up call they got in Game 2. But the entire league knows they’re more vulnerable and potentially distracted than ever right now and I’m sure the Warriors know this, too.
(Photo: Jeff Chiu/AP)
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