Warriors-Clippers mega series preview: X-factor, key matchup, prediction and more
By Anthony Slater Apr 11, 2019
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The bottom side of the Western Conference playoff bracket worked out well for the Warriors on the final night of the regular season, delivering them the Clippers instead of the Thunder as their first-round opponent. The middle of it didn’t.
Because of two absurd late-night comebacks on Wednesday — the Blazers flying from 28 down to the beat the Kings, the Nuggets finishing off the Wolves with a 15-0 fourth-quarter run — Houston fell to the fourth seed.
That puts the Warriors, Rockets and Jazz, the three best West teams the last two months (and the NBA’s three best defenses the last four weeks) on the same side of the bracket.
More specifically: It sets up a likely Warriors-Rockets cage match in Round 2 or, as one tweeter
put it: “The NBA Finals will be the West semifinals.”
But let’s not yet look ahead. Let’s zero in on this first-round series against the Clippers, which isn’t dripping in as much drama as a Thunder series would’ve, but it at least has the potential to be mildly more entertaining than
another Spurs series.
The first-round California showdown opens on Saturday night in Oracle Arena at 5 p.m. local on ABC.
Click here for the rest of the schedule. Let’s get to the breakdown.
Biggest Warriors question: How aggressive is Kevin Durant against favorable defenders?
These teams played three times before the Clippers traded Tobias Harris, which completely reshuffled their rotation. The fourth meeting came this past weekend, but the Clippers had three important pieces missing.
One of those absentees was Danilo Gallinari, who had a much better season than you probably realize, averaging 20 points and hitting 43 percent of his 3-pointers. He’s the leading scorer in Doc Rivers’ preferred, imbalanced starting lineup: Patrick Beverley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Landry Shamet, Gallinari and Ivica Zubac.
That’s three guards — one tiny, the other two rookies — Gallinari, a slow, stiff-legged defender and Zubac, a center. Who exactly, in
that lineup, should guard Kevin Durant?
Beverley might be the best answer. Smaller, feistier guards historically have bothered KD a bit. But Rivers will probably use up all of Beverley’s energy and fouls chasing Steph Curry around.
So maybe it’s Gilgeous-Alexander, the tallest and quickest of the three guards? It’d be good experience for the 11th overall pick last June. This is a series about the future, not the present, for the Clippers. Toss him into the fire.
But then you start thinking about a 20-year-old trying to contain one of the league’s greatest scorers on a playoff stage and, yeah, your mind starts wandering to clips like this …
Gallinari has the most experience guarding Durant. Go all the way back to 2011. These two actually locked horns in a first-round Nuggets-Thunder series.
Oklahoma City had Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins at the time. Denver had Kenyon Martin and Nenê. So these two, both playing small forward in a more traditional NBA, guarded each other plenty.
Gallinari was quicker then, though. He’s had an ACL tear and some recurring knee trouble since. He still gets buckets, like always. But Rivers will be rightly hesitant to stick him on Durant longer than few spot possessions, for fear of Gallinari losing him, like the possession below.
The start of each half is where the Warriors may have their biggest advantage. The Clippers are deep. They have two bench players, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, expected to finish in the top three in Sixth Man voting. They’ll play a ton.
Wilson Chandler and JaMychal Green, two bulkier forwards best built for the Durant defensive task, will also get minutes.
But that starting lineup, which has been average (a +9 together in their last 130 minutes) appears most vulnerable to some Durant exploitation. Do the Warriors attack early by working through Durant? Does Durant even want to play that way?
He’s spent the past month throttling back his usage, often content as either a decoy or a distributor. Five times in the previous 11 games he’s taken fewer than 10 shots. He didn’t do that once in the first 66 games.
It’s worked well for the Warriors. They’re playing great. He’s playing great (and extremely efficiently). But in this matchup — at least early in each half — a heavy dose of Durant could be the wisest strategy.
Biggest Clippers question: Is this how they’re going to guard DeMarcus Cousins?
The Clippers had a chance to escape this fatal first-round matchup. One more win in the final week would’ve done it.
So there was some desperation behind their strategy in Oracle Arena this past Sunday, which may have delivered the Warriors an early glimpse at some of the tricks the Clippers may use to defend them.
One of them involves completely leaving DeMarcus Cousins open on the perimeter, sending his defender elsewhere to shade and double-team. The Clippers did it several times, especially early in Sunday’s game. Here are three examples.
No. 1: Shamet gets a turn guarding Durant, but that’s an obvious mismatch. So Harrell ignores Cousins, who is on the left wing, and slides over to show Durant an extra body on the right block. Durant skips a cross-court pass to a wide-open Cousins for 3. He misses.
No. 2: Garrett Temple gets a turn on Durant. He’s another bench option they have. But they don’t leave him on an island. Zubac, guarding Cousins, sags and shades over to Durant. He passes to Cousins, who misses from up top.
No. 3: Harrell falls all the way back under the basket in transition, leaving Cousins wide open up top for a 3 and he only half-heartedly closes out on the shot.
Here are all three plays.
In those instances, the tactic worked. Cousins missed all three 3s. The Clippers were playing the percentages. In his 30 games this season, Cousins took 95 3-pointers and only made 26, a 27.4 percent clip.
The Clippers opted to live with him taking it, however open, and will likely do so again to start the series. Which puts the pressure on Cousins to burn that type of defense with semi-regularity.
He did that in the second half last Sunday. Rivers stuck with the strategy, Cousins was left open for two more 3s and he hit both. Here they are.
X-factor: Montrezl Harrell against the Warriors bigs
Remember when Draymond Green blew up at Durant on that Staples Center sideline last November? Yeah, I figured you did. Well, you can partially blame Montrezl Harrell for that.
Why? The last-second play in regulation that sparked it all never happens if the game isn’t close. And the game isn’t close if Harrell doesn’t pulverize the Warriors’ interior for 23 points and eight rebounds in his 32 minutes off the bench.
Harrell was awesome that night, the best, or at least most energized, player on the floor the first three quarters. Nine of his 10 buckets came in the restricted area. He lives as a dive man in the pick-and-roll, mostly with Williams, and on the glass.
Rebounding is where the Warriors (most notably: Kevon Looney, who will often have his minutes lined up with Harrell’s) really have to match his effort. If they don’t, Harrell will just gobble up extra possessions and points that’ll help keep the Clippers competitive.
Watch him seal Klay Thompson after this screen, dive toward the rim, hold off Thompson with one hand and outmaneuver Durant with the other, one-handing the rebound, gathering and dunking.
Key matchup: Patrick Beverley’s tactics vs Steph Curry’s brain
This is going to be just as much of a mental challenge for Curry as a physical challenge. Beverley is one of the league’s best irritants and he’s going to try to set a contentious tone early, probably in Quarter 1 of Game 1.
Double technicals are wins for Beverley, even though neither side gets a free throw. He wants Curry thinking more about him and less about the overall task. Beverley wants to bother Curry with the physicality, the pre-whistle over-touching, the head in the armpit, the muttering, the raucous celebrations after a random first-quarter stop. All of it.
If it annoys Curry enough — in Beverley’s ideal world — maybe he’ll start operating out of the offense, trying to force 1-on-1 action to prove a point. Or maybe Curry will fight physicality with physicality and pick up an accidental charge or an overhyped reach, getting him into cheap foul trouble.
That’s the stuff Curry must avoid. Ignore the histrionics, take the smart shots when open, the heat checks when cooking and the high road after hard foul or mini scuffles.
What’s a statistic that could indicate a Warriors sweep?
If Lou Williams is at or below five free-throw attempts per game.
Williams
finished 10th in the NBA this season with 485 free throws. Eight of the nine guys above him are All-Stars. All nine are starters. All nine played 2,150 or more minutes.
Williams wasn’t an All-Star. He isn’t a starter. He played fewer than 2,000 minutes. But he still shot those 485 free throws, more than six per game and 198 more than Curry despite playing 338 fewer minutes.
His foul-drawing skills — nearly equal to James Harden, some would say — is a major part of the Clippers offense. He parades to the line and makes them at an 88-percent clip.
This worked twice against the Warriors this season. Williams played in three of the four games. In the first, the lone Clippers win, Williams got to the line 14 times and made all 14.
In their second matchup, a slim two-point Warriors win, Williams again squeezed his way to the line 14 times, making 12. But this past Sunday, Williams only got there four times in his 28 minutes. The Warriors guarded him well, kept him quiet and won by 27 points.
Foul evasion is an Andre Iguodala defensive specialty. Expect him to get plenty of time guarding Williams in this series.
What’s a statistic that would indicate this series stays competitive?
If Landry Shamet hits more 3s than Klay Thompson.
Shamet is a sharp-shooting rookie out of Wichita State. He spent his first few months in the league studying under J.J. Redikk. He’s trying to sculpt his game in that Redikk/Thompson mold.
It’s way too early to know if Shamet will ever near either of their stratospheres, but he’s certainly capable of a detonation.
Since he was traded to the Clippers in February, Shamet’s already hit six 3s in a quarter against the Knicks, scored 13 fourth-quarter points during a comeback in Boston and popped five 3s in the first 18 minutes on the Warriors the other night.
If he gets super hot on the same night Thompson goes cold and then duplicates that later in the series, there’s no reason this series couldn’t get accidentally pushed to six. Basketball can be random.
Prediction
Warriors in 5. The talent disparity is too wide to think the Clippers will make it dangerous. But these Warriors have a tendency to yawn at least once during a four-game stretch. My guess: There won’t be two Los Angeles trips, but Joe Lacob gets to host a third Oakland game to help pay for some of that luxury-tax bill.
(Photo: Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
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Anthony Slater is a senior writer covering the