Venezuela! Te agarro en la bajadita: 8/25 WH levies sanctions on Maduro regime

88m3

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In Venezuela, An Electricity Crisis Adds To Country's Woes
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March 29, 20161:37 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered
JOHN OTIS
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The headquarters of the Bank of Venezuela (from left) and buildings housing the National Assembly and various government ministries stand in darkness in Caracas on March 22. Venezuela shut down for a week to conserve electricity amid a deepening power crisis.

Bloomberg via Getty Images
At the Caracas Paper Co., founded in 1953, printing presses and cutting machines used to churn out 13,000 tons of notebooks, manila folders and envelopes every year. Now, it produces less than half that amount.

That's due to a paper shortage as well as frequent power outages. The blackouts can last up to three hours, says production manager Antonio Lamarca. And they come just as the government is urging Venezuelan businesses to ramp up production and help rescue the economy.

"The machinery shuts down. There's no water, so the bathrooms don't work. We have to send the workers home," Lamarca says.

Some factories have adapted by installing diesel generators. But paper plant consultant Jose Sotelo says that a generator big enough to keep all these machines running would break the company's budget.

Venezuela might seem like an odd place for an energy crisis. It's home to the world's largest oil reserves as well as huge natural gas deposits and massive rivers for hydroelectric dams.

But the El Niño weather effect has drastically reduced water levels at the country's main hydroelectric complex. And so now, on top of food shortages and triple-digit inflation, people must put up with power outages. Venezuela's government announced a weeklong holiday last week to conserve electricity.

The government, which controls the electric system, accuses unnamed "enemies" — the political opposition — of allegedly attacking the country's thermoelectric plants. "We have to understand, this is a war," Luis Motta, the minister of electricity, declared in an interview on state TV. But independent analysts say government mismanagement and populist policies are to blame for the crisis. For example, Venezuelan households pay just pennies a month for electricity. "For me, if I want to do my monthly budget, I don't even care about electricity payment," says Caracas-based economist Carlos Alvarez. "It is nothing."

He says these rock-bottom rates starve the state electric company of money needed to upgrade the system. Now, with Venezuela's economy in a free fall, the cash-strapped government has more pressing concerns, he says.

"I would say for now [the] priority is food, medicine," Alvarez says. "People [are] dying because they don't have the medicine that they need. People [are in] lines to get some food."

Venezuela's power outages — which have been happening on and off for about five years but became worse this year owing to extremely low water levels in the main hydroelectric dam — are making daily life especially miserable. With no electricity, neighborhood water pumps stop working. To wash dishes and flush toilets, Elizabeth Castro, a nurse, stores water in buckets inside her apartment on the outskirts of Caracas.

The standing water provides a breeding ground for mosquitoes that spread malaria and Zika, a disease that has sickened Castro and several family members.

"What's happening to us is really alarming," Castro says.

But trying to escape from it all — for example, by taking in a movie — is also complicated. At a multiplex in a Caracas mall, the last showing of the movie Spotlightstarts at 5:45 in the afternoon. Why so early? Because of power rationing, the shopping center closes at 7 p.m.

 

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A Mystery Bond in Venezuela Has Traders Scratching Their Heads

Sebastian Boyd Sebaboyd
March 28, 2016 — 9:00 PM EDTUpdated on March 29, 2016 — 3:38 PM EDT

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Workers at a Petroleos de Venezuela gas station in Caracas.


Photographer: Wilfredo Riera/Bloomberg
  • Investors last week saw prices on 2022 bonds issued by PDVSA
  • State oil company's notes have fallen 6.2% since March 22

Bond investors in Venezuela have made a dispiriting discovery.

Last week, traders started quoting prices on a $3 billion note issued by the nation’s state-owned oil company. While the eight-year securities were first sold in October 2014 under New York law, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, not much else is known. The bonds don’t trade on any U.S. exchange, aren’t rated by any major credit-ratings firm and no term sheet has been made public.

Concern that new Petroleos de Venezuela securities were being sold to investors has sparked a 6.2 percent drop in its other notes due in 2022. The benchmark bonds due in November 2017 fell 5.4 percent.


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Investors are dismayed that the securities represent yet another obligation for the cash-strapped oil-producing nation, which has been hounded by speculation it may default in the coming year. PDVSA, as the company is known, issued the bonds to the central bank, which may look to unload them on the market to generate much-needed revenue. At Monday’s price of 29 cents on the dollar, they’re actually worth less than $1 billion.

“They’re there, but they have never been used in the market,” said Carmelo Haddad, a managing director at Knossos Asset Management in Caracas. “We’ll see them at some stage this year, though maybe not just now when prices are so poor.”

Officials at PDVSA and at the central bank didn’t immediately respond to e-mailed requests for comment on Monday.

The central bank may decide to use the notes to supply Venezuela’s new currency market, known as the DICOM. Central bank data show the government is selling less than 10 percent of the available dollars at the market-based DICOM rate, with more than 90 percent being sold at the official exchange rate of 10 bolivars per dollar.


That suggests there is a shortage of hard currency, said Siobhan Morden, the head of Latin American fixed-income strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York.

“Just the fear of new supply, and look what happens to pricing,” she said. “We don’t need new bonds that no one wants to buy.”

A Mystery Bond in Venezuela Has Traders Scratching Their Heads
 

plushcarpet

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socialism at it's finest :mjlol:
can't even make socialism work in a country swimming in Oil :mjlol:
 
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Venezuela nearing total “collapse”

A recent International Monetary Fund report that Venezuela will reach a 720 percent inflation rate this year — the highest in the world — has drawn a lot of media attention, but what I heard from a senior IMF economist this week was even more dramatic.

Robert K. Rennhack, deputy director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department, told me in an interview that Venezuela is on a path to hyperinflation — the stage where the economy reaches total chaos — and could reach a “total collapse of the economic system” in 12 to 18 months if there are no changes in economic policies.

“Inflation in Venezuela probably entered on a hyperinflationary path in 2015,” Rennhack says. He told me that he expects Venezuela’s inflation to reach 2.200 percent in 2017, and could balloon very fast to 13,000 a year, the stage that most academics define as full-blown hyper-inflation.

Although he didn’t get into that, no Latin American government in recent memory has been able to survive a hyper-inflationary crisis. When you reach five-digit inflation rates, governments either make a dramatic political u-turn, or they fall.

“Hyper-inflation means that the currency has lost its value, people have to go to the stores with bags full of money, and prices rise almost by the hour,” Rennhack said. “What we saw in previous cases of hyperinflation in Latin America is that there was a political consensus that policies had to change.”

Asked how he reached his 12-18 month projection for hyper-inflation in Venezuela, Rennhack said his team of economists looked at previous episodes of hyper-inflation in Bolivia (1982-1984,) Argentina (1989-1990) and Brazil (1989-1990.) From those experiences, they concluded that Venezuela is on a similar path as these countries were between 12 and 18 months before their hyper-inflationary crises.

President Nicolas Maduro’s term ends in 2019, although the opposition MUD coalition is considering launching a referendum to demand early elections.

Many Venezuelans believe the country will explode much sooner than in 12 to 18 months. Prices go up daily, supermarket shelves are near empty, there are growing electricity shortages — Maduro has declared every Friday in April and May a non-working holiday in order to save energy — and crime statistics are skyrocketing.

The Venezuelan currency, the Bolivar, is increasingly worthless. Not even robbers want it: a few months ago, news report quoted an engineer named Pedro Venero as saying that he was attacked by armed robbers who were looking for U.S. dollars stashed in his home, but refused to take Bolivars.

Since Maduro took office after a dubious election in 2013, the economy has collapsed from a 5 percent growth rate that year to an 8 percent contraction in 2016. Most importantly, poverty has ballooned from 23 percent to 73 percent of Venezuelan households over the same period, according to a joint study by the University Andres Bello, the Central University of Venezuela and the Simon Bolivar University.

My opinion: With Venezuela on a “hyper-inflationary path,” it’s hard to see how Maduro can finish his term in 2019.

Most likely, there will be a military coup — current speculation is that it would come from “Chavista” army officers concerned about Maduro’s incompetence — or a regional diplomatic offensive to press Maduro to respect the laws passed by the opposition-controlled National Assembly.

Granted, many Venezuelans are skeptical that Venezuela’s opposition will get enough votes at the 34-country Organization of American States (OAS) to apply the organization’s Democratic Charter, which would demand that Maduro take specific steps to restore democratic rule. But skeptics about the outcome of a OAS vote could be wrong: Venezuela’s petro-diplomacy has lost its clout in the region with the collapse of oil prices, and Latin America’s political map is changing fast, moving away from Venezuela’s corruption-ridden socialist model.

A collective regional move under the OAS Democratic Charter to demand a constitutional solution to the Venezuelan crisis would be much better than a military coup, which — no matter which side it comes from — would mark a return to the dark ages of Latin America’s military regimes. The region’s democracies should seek an OAS Democratic Charter vote as early as next month, because the alternative — doing nothing — may lead to a “total collapse of the economic system” followed by a military government.
:lupe:
 

Vonte3000

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How long until the U.S. is in a similar situation? Let's not act 14 trillion in debt ain't about to come bite us in the ass
 

Camile.Bidan

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I remember being on SOHH 16 years ago and reading how Venezuela was in the right track bevause Chavez and socialism. This was from members like Pontious pirate, 41510, and other names that I have forgotten and probably don't post here anymore.

Funny how the societies that I predicted would dominate (China / Singapore) because their embrace of free markets 16 years ago are economic powerhouses.

It's also pretty obvious that, except a for a few key member nations, Europe is also on the decline.


When socialism gets a strong foothold in the USA and it will, we will also be on a long decline as well.
 

Mook

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I remember being on SOHH 16 years ago and reading how Venezuela was in the right track bevause Chavez and socialism. This was from members like Pontious pirate, 41510, and other names that I have forgotten and probably don't post here anymore.

Funny how the societies that I predicted would dominate (China / Singapore) because their embrace of free markets 16 years ago are economic powerhouses.

It's also pretty obvious that, except a for a few key member nations, Europe is also on the decline.


When socialism gets a strong foothold in the USA and it will, we will also be on a long decline as well.

Thats what happens when your entire economy is based on one resource.
 

Camile.Bidan

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Thats what happens when your entire economy is based on one resource.


Saudi Arabia, Dubai etc

There are multiple reasons.

However, There are multiple cases of similar cultures and simliar people with one group under capitalism and the other group under strong leftist socialism--east Germany vs West. China vs Taiwan/Hong Kong/singapore and Korea vs North Korea.

The case of Singapore is even more interesting because it is a facist authoritarian government yet still one of the most rich countries due to its embrace of free markets. Prove positive that Eastern model of Authoritarian-Capitalism is probably the best model and why it's being adopted by China and Russia
 
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