QB:
Matthew Stafford,
Josh McCown
RB:
Jamaal Charles,
Ryan Mathews,
Ben Tate,
Fred Jackson,
Danny Woodhead
WR:
Jordy Nelson,
Percy Harvin,
Kendall Wright,
Julian Edelman,
Riley Cooper
TE:
Zach Ertz,
Ladarius Green
PK:
Nick Novak
TD:
St. Louis Rams,
New Orleans Saints
Overview:
Old school!
Make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be among the top teams in the league. Somewhere Marshall Faulk is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.
Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 12 of 2013:
Jamaal Charles vs. SD: 157 combined yards, 2 TD
Julian Edelman vs. DEN: 110 receiving yards, 2 TD
Danny Woodhead vs. KC: 70 combined yards, 2 TD
Matthew Stafford vs. TB: 297 passing yards, 3 TD
Kendall Wright vs. OAK: 103 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:
We have Matthew Stafford rated #6 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Josh McCown (ranked #27 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Stafford turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, McCown has what we project as a neutral matchup (CLE) during Stafford's bye.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Matthew Stafford ranked as high as second, which would make him an above average first quarterback. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "Stafford has been top five in two of the last three years and he enters 2014 with the best corps of weapons he's ever had. Golden Tate should take at least some of the focus off of Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron has a chance to give Stafford a more reliable option in the middle of the field. The tandem of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in the backfield make Stafford's job a lot easier."
Josh McCown is ranked #18 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second quarterback. Mark Wimer reasons, "McCown has enough surrounding talent in Tampa Bay to be a serviceable fantasy backup, with the opportunity for a reasonable number of starts when the matchup is favorable. He has reportedly 'clicked' with Vincent Jackson and both have connected for multiple TDs during practice sessions (including six TDs in one practice). Mike Evans has developed nicely in his rookie training camp. Both receivers are catching multiple passes from McCown in game situations (take a look at the box score from the third exhbition vs. Buffalo) I think McCown could be a strong fantasy presence during the season - if I go with a quarter-back-by-committee in some of my leagues this year McCown will likely be the #2 quarterback in those committees."
RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Jamaal Charles as a top running back. We figure them at a combined 1.9 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Charles ranked first and Ryan Mathews ranked at #17.
Your bench also looks good. Ben Tate should serve as a very solid third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Fred Jackson should also be solidly above average at RB4. Danny Woodhead is a handcuff, but we'd like him as a fifth running back even if you didn't have Ryan Mathews.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Ryan Mathews is ranked #11 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second running back. Mark Wimer reasons, "Mathews finally played a full slate of 16 games last year, the Chargers intend to run the ball a lot, and as a bonus he is playing for his next contract this season. I like him for 2014 redraft leagues in both non-PPR and PPR scoring paradigms."
WR Summary:
Your starting receivers should be adequate but not great. They don't stand out as difference-makers, but all should be OK. Jordy Nelson is our fifth ranked WR, Percy Harvin is #20, and we have Kendall Wright 27th.
Julian Edelman should be a good fourth receiver. We also see Riley Cooper as an above average WR5.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Percy Harvin is ranked #12 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second receiver. Chad Parsons reasons, "Harvin is impactful on a per game basis. Any string of health in 2014 results in a strong stretch of top15 production."
Kendall Wright is ranked #13 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Wright caught 94 passes a year ago and is on the rise. This is the season - if he can get decent quarterback play - Wright tops the 100-catch plateau."
Riley Cooper is ranked #32 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. Austin Lee reasons, "The Eagles produced two top-24 receivers last year, including Cooper. You could argue that adding Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles will eat into Cooper's targets from last year, but that should almost be completely offset by Jeremy Maclin being a big downgrade from DeSean Jackson. The upside of this high-play-count offense makes it easy for me to envision Cooper flirting with the top 30 at his position in 2014."
TE Summary:
Zach Ertz is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #7). So the selection of Ladarius Green, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Ladarius Green as high as #8, which would make him a great second tight end and even a legitimate TE1. Phil Alexander's take: "I'm willing to pay to find out if Mike McCoy and the SD coaching staff are smart enough to realize their most explosive playmaker belongs on the field. Don't let Antonio Gates' decent 2013 stat line fool you. He was terrible over the second half and in the playoffs, while Green's per target efficiency last year placed him in Graham/Gronk territory. Barring injury, Gates will not go away completely, but there are plenty of ways SD can get both TEs on the field together. Green personifies the type of pick that can single-handedly decide your league this season. If it makes you feel better, hedge against McCoy being a dummy by grabbing a high floor tight end late in the draft."
Kicker Summary:
Nick Novak, our eighth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.
Defense Summary:
Between the Rams and the Saints, you should get above average production here