QB: Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman
RB: LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, DeAngelo Williams
WR: Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Randy Moss
TE: Aaron Hernandez, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller
PK: David Akers
TD: Green Bay Packers
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Doug Martin, Jordy Nelson, Andre Johnson, Aaron Hernandez, Darrius Heyward-Bey, DeAngelo Williams, Dez Bryant, and the Packers defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 78 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 17 of 2011:
Jordy Nelson vs. DET: 162 receiving yards, 3 TD
Aaron Hernandez vs. BUF: 138 receiving yards, 1 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. SD: 130 receiving yards, 1 TD
Antonio Gates vs. OAK: 106 receiving yards, 1 TD
Philip Rivers vs. OAK: 310 passing yards, 3 TD
QB Summary:
We have Philip Rivers rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Josh Freeman (ranked #20 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Rivers turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, Freeman has what we project as a neutral matchup (NO) during Rivers's bye.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Philip Rivers as high as #5, which would make him an above average first quarterback. Jeff Tefertiller's take: "While this ranking seems high to many, Rivers gets Gates back healthy and the team added Meachem and Royal to offset the loss of Vincent Jackson. The Chargers will be a throwing team once again this season. The loss of Mike Tolbert could lead to more red zone pass attempts for Rivers. Also, if Ryan Mathews struggles with durability again, Rivers could have 480+ pass attempts. "
Josh Freeman is ranked #14 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second quarterback. Jeff Haseley reasons, "In a down year in 2011, Josh Freeman still managed to finish as the 16th ranked quarterback. He has the skills and ability to produce as rusher, which gives him a boost in fantasy production. His strong arm was not utilized enough in the Raheem Morris era. The addition of a true WR1 in Vincent Jackson and the offensive philosophies of Head Coach Greg Schiano and Offensive Coordinator Mike Sullivan give Freeman the tools needed to be successful. A Top 10 finish could be the end result."
RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LeSean McCoy ranked third and Doug Martin ranked 11th.
DeAngelo Williams should serve as a very solid third running back.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.7 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Andre Johnson is our #3 ranked receiver, Jordy Nelson is #8, and we have Dez Bryant 13th.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Darrius Heyward-Bey at WR4. Randy Moss is also a very nice WR5.
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Aaron Hernandez is an elite tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 1.8 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Antonio Gates is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.
Kicker Summary:
With David Akers, you should be above average at the position.
Defense Summary:
The Packers are our #1 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.
in this money league
