Trump says he will be the 45th and 47th president

[Geek Nasty]

Don't get it twisted. 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020. He has a legit shot to win again, especially since Biden has been mid across the board since his election.

He doesn't, Biden right now beats him (AND DeSantis) head-to-head in polling. Probably the only way Biden loses is if there's something catastrophically bad or red states submit more fake electoral counts that get accepted by a Republican Senate.

 

[mc_brew]

You've gotta make an actual case here. As I see it, Trump barely lost in a handful of swing states when exhaustion with him, his fukkery, and his handling of Covid had peaked. I mean let's not forget the absolute sprint of fukkery that led up to the election.

Biden has not done a great job on Covid, has alienated most of his "base" constituencies (base used about as strongly as you can use it for a neoliberal democrat...black people, young people, progressives with nowhere else to turn), and has a sub-40 approval rating. And "moderate" white women are doing their usual moderate white women shyt and starting to swing back red.

How does any of this guarantee Trump won't win?

+ many don't understand that due to the way the electoral college is structured, rep presidents don't need above 50% approval ratings to get reelected... dem presidents do.... it scares me that so many don't understand that trump came 45k votes away from losing the popular vote by 8m votes yet still getting reelected.... it's not a game out here, shyt is real......

 

[Reality]

He doesn't, Biden right now beats him (AND DeSantis) head-to-head in polling. Probably the only way Biden loses is if there's something catastrophically bad or red states submit more fake electoral counts that get accepted by a Republican Senate.

I'm not sure why we even refer to pre-campaign polling though. As far as I can tell, it's never reliable and gaps get closed very, very quickly once campaign spending gets dialed up and ads start to hit. I'd love to see an actual study, but I heavily discount non-campaign polls pre-primary where one side of the poll is an incumbent.

As people who pay attention to politics, I think it's very easy to discount the name recognition advantage incumbents can have in national races.

 

[Hood Critic]

Why would you waste energy engaging Trump in a mid-term election year? There is plenty of time for that. Some of you need not quit your day jobs.

 

[Reality]

Why would you waste energy engaging Trump in a mid-term election year? There is plenty of time for that. Some of you need not quit your day jobs.

This would be a viable strategy if the Democratic party was executing, had high approvals, and wasn't an absolute dumpster fire. I'm not sure why you'd choose to re-elevate him during a mid-term and open yourself up to a clear and obvious line of attack: you've not delivered, are managing poorly, AND you're unfocused.

 

[Tom Foolery]

Good luck

He also said he would win re election in 2020.

COVID and 1.3 million dead Americans, mostly of his voter base, says different.

 

[sjankis630]

I would be impressed if they just showed him doing something. Anything but watching TV and playing golf.

 

[TheDarceKnight]

Yeah, but his loyal base been dying in large amounts since Nov 2020, like FL losing almost 120k people from COVID in just 2 years.

Plus, you forgot about the anti-vaxx MAGA base that turned against Trump after Trump pleaded to his base to take the vaccine. He had to cancel his tour dates because of the lack of tickets sold.

Low Dem turnout in 2024 could easily help even the scales on dead Republican voters.

I don't think many people are trying to say they favor Trump or anything. But damn. People were so confident in 2016 and 2020 that he'd have no shot, and he won in 2016, and 2020 was closer than any of us would've liked.

I just think it's such a small price to pay to take him seriously and respect him as a credible (even if unlikely) threat.

Trump was less than 50,000 votes away from winning the presidency in 2020, despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by like 8 million votes.

 

[TheDarceKnight]

He doesn't, Biden right now beats him (AND DeSantis) head-to-head in polling. Probably the only way Biden loses is if there's something catastrophically bad or red states submit more fake electoral counts that get accepted by a Republican Senate.

He's always done better than what he's polled at. There's always been an issue with people not wanting to admit that they'd vote for him.

I realize a lot of his supporters have died from Covid, but the guy was gaining substantial amounts of voters in 2020 among every demographic besides white men. Also @mc_brew and @Reality I'm tagging ya'll here too in case you missed this poll.

 

[TheDarceKnight]

You've gotta make an actual case here. As I see it, Trump barely lost in a handful of swing states when exhaustion with him, his fukkery, and his handling of Covid had peaked. I mean let's not forget the absolute sprint of fukkery that led up to the election.

Biden has not done a great job on Covid, has alienated most of his "base" constituencies (base used about as strongly as you can use it for a neoliberal democrat...black people, young people, progressives with nowhere else to turn), and has a sub-40 approval rating. And "moderate" white women are doing their usual moderate white women shyt and starting to swing back red.

How does any of this guarantee Trump won't win?

Not to mention this: a lot of people that voted for him in 2016 and decided not to again in 2020 (either due to feeling conned, or didn't like how he handled COVID, or any number of reasons) could easily swing back the other way. Biden's approval rating is awfully low right now. There are any number of x-factors that could swing these voters back to Trump. Some of these factors may be predictable, or maybe not. We don't know what we don't know. I think it's stupid to totally write Trump off. If he runs in 2024 he should be taken very seriously. 2024 is also still far enough out for him to get back in good graces with his base, and/or rebuild portions of it that he's lost.

 

[Man On Fire]

Trump is going to jail

But would still vote for him again in 2024, just for the fukkery

 

[OsO]

But would still vote for him again in 2024, just for the fukkery

 

[Man On Fire]

Nah Black on Both sides

He’s not gonna be able to run again

Y’all weirdos more afraid of Trump than being breathing

 

[the cac mamba]

He doesn't, Biden right now beats him (AND DeSantis) head-to-head in polling. Probably the only way Biden loses is if there's something catastrophically bad .

come on man. you cant be this out of touch

-you really see an 82 year old biden with VP kamala, beating a florida governor in his 40s fresh off of 2022 reelection momentum? no fukkin way policy will barely matter. biden is not physically viable to run a nationwide campaign in 2024

-there are millions of moderates and independents who are dying to get back to voting republican, post trump. republicans nominate the right non-trump ticket, and they probably run washington for a decade

the only democrat that trump could have beaten was hillary. the only republican that biden can beat is trump this country is not sending its best

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Trump should say he will be the last president