Yeah, but his loyal base been dying in large amounts since Nov 2020, like FL losing almost 120k people from COVID in just 2 years.
Plus, you forgot about the anti-vaxx MAGA base that turned against Trump after Trump pleaded to his base to take the vaccine. He had to cancel his tour dates because of the lack of tickets sold.
Depressed Democratic turnout in 2024 can easily make up for that. And I wouldn't count on antivaxxers not voting for Trump. They might bytch but Republicans fall in line during elections.
I'm not saying Trump has it in the bag, but after 2016 it's foolish to think it couldn't happen.