Pull Up the Roots
Veteran
Dudes get really defensive and want to play devil's advocate in these threads clowing Trump. It's weird.
Trump literally can't fill a High School gym for his rally
- Thread starter Elim Garak
- Start date
Media manipulation on both sides.
I think that happens, but Kamala brings in more people.
Elim Garak
Veteran
I noticed also people freaking out about polls in the margin of error are hilarious.
I Really Mean It
Veteran
some of these aggregators are using garbage polls from right wing sources, muddying up the accuracy of their readings. the aggregates that filter out the noise and use only the highest rated pollsters show her ahead on the national and battleground averages.
i’m not saying it will be a landslide, though i won’t be shocked if it is, but you can’t reasonably say that they’re tied right now.
just look at how trump’s campaign is operating. he refused to have a debate on fox news of all places. this isn’t a campaign that is acting with confidence.
Elim Garak
Veteran
You think they are attending rallies to learn who Trump is?
feelosofer
#ninergang
This is going to be a very close race. But the Magats are beginning to wear down. Nobody want's to hear him ramble for hours about Kambla and Hannibal Lecture and his feeling regarding his daughters pubescent years
My point is that it’s all old news now. The appeal of going to these rallies isn’t there anymore.
Elim Garak
Veteran
Bullshyt lol.
The methodology this year is no more accurate than what it was in 2016. You honestly believe the 7 swing states are within a percentage point or 2 of each other? You think that is realistic? The difference this year is none of the pollsters want to go out on the limb and suggest one of the candidates is winning outside of their margin for error. And they are undercounting another subset(s) of voters this time around as well.
Yes! Yes I do, lol.
Why not believe it? Because it leads to uncomfortable thoughts about Trump possibly winning? You want to feel the thrill of victory weeks and months *before* election day? The election isn't going to be decided based on how good we make ourselves feel today about things that have a very loose correlation with victory, like yard signs and crowd sizes.
Put it this way, this was the polls on this date in 2020:
That's Biden 356, Trump 164, Tie 18. The final result was Biden 306, Trump 232.
On this date in 2016:
That's Clinton 352, Trump 186. The final result was Trump 304, Clinton 227.
The big conclusion here is when Trump's name is on the ballot he outperforms his polls. Which means a dead tie would likely go his way on election day. I think Kamala needs her EV count right now to be minimum 285 or 290. Anything less than that is playing fire.
Doesn't this just prove the polls aren't accurate, especially this particular one you are using. You think just because they have it close this year, it's more accurate than before?Yes! Yes I do, lol.
Why not believe it? Because it leads to uncomfortable thoughts about Trump possibly winning? You want to feel the thrill of victory weeks and months *before* election day? The election isn't going to be decided based on how good we make ourselves feel today about things that have a very loose correlation with victory, like yard signs and crowd sizes.
Put it this way, this was the polls on this date in 2020:
That's Biden 356, Trump 164, Tie 18. The final result was Biden 306, Trump 232.
On this date in 2016:
That's Clinton 352, Trump 186. The final result was Trump 304, Clinton 227.
The big conclusion here is when Trump's name is on the ballot he outperforms his polls. Which means a dead tie would likely go his way on election day. I think Kamala needs her EV count right now to be minimum 285 or 290. Anything less than that is playing fire.
I already told you why that is.It suggests that the polls may be biased against Trump (biased in the purely mathematical/statistical sense, meaning that they consistently underpredict his performance). So again, if, and it definitely is an if - but if they're biased against him, then you don't want to de dead even with him, you want to be way ahead of him. Especially this close to the race - people are voting right now.Doesn't this just prove the polls aren't accurate, especially this particular one you are using. You think just because they have it close this year, it's more accurate than before?
Look, I HOPE you're right, and all the polls are purposely factoring that bias in and that these numbers are very accurate. I really want to have egg on my face on this the morning after the election if it means Trump loses. But I suspect all of these different polls are not doing that.
Harris just went ahead of Trunp in Iowa. Very good sign. She's surging at the right time:
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”
www.desmoinesregister.com