Guess this can be the official Ethiopia fukkery thread. This is about the best rundown I’ve seen on the conflict thus far. Western media frankly have a very dismissive and lowkey racist oversimplified view of the situation so illegitimate actors are being propped up while outsiders are wrongly asking for dialogue when Abiy showed so much patience with TPLF for that dialogue that some including myself considered it weak and damn near collaboration for him to twiddle his thumbs while these dusty racist thieves pull strings and create ethnic conflict.
Just a brief history:
TPLF were the guerilla band that, in an alliance with the EPLF of what would later become Eritrea, and the OLF overthrew the former Communist dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Meles Zenawi the future PM and the TPLF let Eritrea gain independence but betrayed the OLF of their dreams of their own dream state of Oromia. The TPLF and Meles then went on to dominate the country for 3 decades and centralize power into the hands of a tiny cabal of former soldiers and elites in Tigray region. Lands of vulnerable periphery peoples were sold off to foreign investors despite this supposed line of running a state planned and operated economy. Dissidents were either killed or jailed including many of their former allies. Bear in mind, Tigray people make up only 6% of a population of 100+ million. Of which, an even tinier percentage actually enjoy power and influence. The rest of the Tigray people by and large are on the same average of life standards as everyone else.
The form of government created was ethnic nationalism based which introduced, or in some cases reintroduced, a very racist and fragmented composition of society under the guise of self determination. When in actuality anyone that wasn’t an influential Tigray or TPLF member was on the outside looking in. Moreover, the political setup further emphasized and deepened the fault lines between groups and therefore became very easy to control.
Abiy Ahmed came up within the TPLF apparatus as a soldier and later as an intelligence officer. Growing protest movements a few years ago among Oromo and Amhara youths put pressure on the TPLF to change the face of leadership in the PM seat. Before this, PM Dessalegn was an attempt by TPLF handlers to diversify by placing a southerner (typically a disenfranchised group/region) in the reigns but he didn’t have the charisma or mixed Oromo/Amhara background which is increasingly typical of the country. Abiy ended up getting the mandate and took control.
Abiy has moved increasingly to a Pan Ethiopian model and looks to be changing things from an ethnic-nationalist state to a Unitarian one. This betrays the more extreme elements of the Oromo protest groups which led to many of those same youths to turn on him. Egged on by Jawar Mohammad, owner of the provocative Oromo Media Network based in Minneapolis, whom could easily be compared to Rwanda’s Felicien Kabuga in his use of media to spread a racist, fascist message which encourages genocide of Amhara peoples. This garnered results in brutal ethnic cleansing attacks by Oromo youths, many of whom were paid, in Oromia state against Amharas. Diasporan Black people were also attacked in Shashamane as most of them are Rastas which closely associates with Amhara culture via the Imperial legacy. The irony of course being that the same Oromos being convinced to kill are taking a BLM position against Abiy arguing that stifling them is akin to racism against Oromo peoples.
Now the extremist secessionist elements of the Oromo protest movement, essentially the remnants of the OLF, is aligned with TPLF, their former betrayers, in an attempt to get rid of Abiy and rule their own tiny, economically unviable banana republics. In their minds, the Ethiopian state and Abiy represents a cultural hegemony of Amhara peoples given their past as a politically influential group and threatens to keep them subservient. On the Pan Ethiopian side, the argument is that more division will only bring suffering to everyone and the country is inching closer and closer to shaking off its impoverished reputation and join the fray of middle income countries. In many ways, the Mengistu era was a response to inequalities in Ethiopian society, which were buttressed by American support. The TPLF, rather than deal with these issues, took advantage of these fissures in the social fabric and made themselves a rich political mafia. Now Abiy wants the heads of the cabal either dead or in jail, as do many fed up Ethiopians. But the opposition have their secessionist supporters. Many of whom supported Trump’s reelection since he’s taken an anti-Abiy position on the GERD controversy.
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